In recent years, Russia has intensified the debate about the prospects create the country's global financial center. One of analytical institutions, which actively deals with this problem, the Institute for stock market development. Director of the Institute of stock market development Sergey Grinyaev kindly agreed to give an interview to the Internet-the project "Empire".
- Sergey Nikolaevich, what are, in Your opinion, the main causes of the global financial crisis?
- The causes of the current financial crisis today is called a lot. However, most experts agree that the actual "start" of the crisis was given by a collapse in the US real estate market and made manifest, the problems of American credit institutions as FannyMayand FreddieMac. The ensuing bankruptcies on WallStreet formed a "snowball" which is sucked into the abyss of the entire global monetary system.
But this version in many respects, what is called, lies on the surface. If to speak about our own opinion, it is somewhat wider than the official version.
Employees of our organization over the years has closely followed the most important events connected with the crisis, analyzed them and tried to form their own opinions about events. The result of our research was published in the form of an analytical report "the Fundamental causes and nature of current crisis" (the report is available in electronic form on our website).
Briefly summarize the main findings of our study, they are the following – the current crisis is not accidental, it is largely manageable. The global elite are ready for it, he waited and tried to manage. Another thing is that not all and not always turns out even she has. However, the essence remains – the current crisis is one of the most profound in the entire history of modern economy.
It system – affects not only the financial-economic sphere, but also other, related spheres of society. The main reason is the exhaustion of the resource stability of the world monetary-financial system, built on the dominance of a single currency (the US dollar), not secured by real assets, and permanently depreciating as a result of inflationary expansion in the money supply.
- How do You feel about conspiracy versions of the global crisis?
- In General – negatively, although the phrase "global elite" is in answer to the first question. I will explain why. Conspiracy theories at its core is a quasi - science about some hidden from the eyes of the processes taking place in society. What is happening today – this is not conspiracy theory, it's our everyday reality.
A few years ago about such organizations as the Bilderberg club, Trilateral Commission or Council on foreign relations, mentioned solely in the context of conspiracy research, today these and similar organizations are actively involved in the formation of a new world monetary-financial system. The world financial elite seeks to use all possible mechanisms for the formation of such management decisions that would continue to maintain its power over society.
For example, for us, as analysts, it was quite strange that such format of communication, such as the G20. If before 2009 there existed only the presentation of the financial G7 and its extended political, with the participation of Russia, variant - G8, since the beginning of 2009 this format began to evolve, drawing into its orbit all new and new countries. Started talking about the G11, then G15, G20, and even the G50. In this case, all with determination denied even the possibility to resolve any significant issues associated with development of anti-crisis measures of an international character, within the framework of the existing world order.
Until June 2009 about the United Nations is not remembered by anybody. All the world's media were full of reports of international meetings in various formats, "G", the results of which did not fit into the existing system of international law, and reflected only the desire of the richest people in the world to organize a new post-industrial division of the world. Is it appropriate in this case to talk about conspiracies let the reader decide.
- How do You explain the fact that in the conditions of world financial crisis, some organizations have increased their profits more than doubled compared with the period when there was economic growth?
- The answer to this question logically follows from the answers to previous two questions – if you are expecting and preparing for some events (in some cases - are involved in their initiation), it is quite clear that you will likely be in the black, when the "smoke clears". What we see today.
I believe that to say that in some organizations, turned out to be super-insightful analysts, it is not quite right.
Some echoes of these events could be observed in Russia in the spring and summer of 2008. So, in may 2008 at the peak of the Russian stock market, when the RTS Index exceeded 2,000 points, and most analysts did only what was assessed the historical highs by year-end – will they be above 3000 or 4000? The stock market bought and sold of some financial instruments on the basis of values of the RTS Index only 1,500 by August 2008. It is, of course, that it is pure coincidence or, in modern terminology – "black Swan", although I don't think so.
- Why is the current attack on the Euro and who is behind it?
Again we assume that the task today is to "preserve and enhance". It is clear that diversification under such conditions is not good. Moreover, the example of the Euro has resulted in recent years in the world there are many who want to generate your own, private circle of participants of the regional financial system, which further complicated the situation for dominance of the US dollar.
Realizing this, the governments of France and Germany, as EU leaders, in recent years pursued a fairly well-balanced credit-financial policy, the results of which are reflected in the welfare countries of the EU. But this excessive independence is expensive in our world, in which there are only two effective lever: rigid – aircraft group (for opponents), and soft – driven crisis (political or economic - is for friends and allies).
In Europe, this technology is quite simple – bring the default to the weakest members of the Union. Originally it was Iceland, but it was not enough, so they are followed by Greece and Portugal. We must assume that this will be enough to restore the status quo of the US dollar. By the way, some experts have noted is critical for the U.S. economy the level of parity Euro/dollar. He is 1.6. So stay tuned.
- What is the situation with the world's leading exchanges? How would you comment on the actions of the leading world players?
- We strive to closely monitor everything related to the activities of the major trading platforms, as we consider them critical nodes of the infrastructure of the existing system of monetary relations.
In recent years among the world's exchanges two obvious trends.
First, exchanges are seeking to merge. This process is dominated by American exchange NYSEand NASDAQ, which in recent years bought up most of the European stock exchanges and of exchanges of CIS countries. Summary - transactions in captured markets, usually held in US dollars and according to U.S. legal standards. Thus, failing is assigned to the dominant dollar.
The second trend is an improvement of the technology of exchange trade. Evaluation of the development of the current crisis shows that the global elite are not quite the performance of existing software and hardware complexes of the world's largest stock exchanges and banks. Monsters of the financial world – hedge funds, do not have time to assess the situation and quickly redirect financial resources from one regional market to another. Therefore, in recent months a lot of information about the commissioning of the new trading systems on the largest Beraiah world (about it we wrote in our article "the Struggle for the future" )
- How is the idea of creation in Russia of one of the world's leading financial centres? What problems are essential?
- The problem is really complex and multidimensional. Today, it is important to understand that the financial centre of world level is not just a global off-shore (although this interpretation of the financial centers were present before the crisis), as an independent geopolitical and geoeconomic centre of attraction not only financial but also other resources. It should also be understood that administratively establish such a centre is impossible, you can only talk about the creation of favorable conditions of its origin and development. Many issues to solve alone is extremely difficult. Our approach to the problem is reflected in the target analytical report "Financial Centru in Russia as an instrument of sustainable post-crisis development".
I think that the idea of creating the Customs Union can be great help in implementing these ideas. It is important to understand that the formation of the Customs Union is only the first step towards closer integration and the formation of regional (and in the future – and the world's) financial center. And this is the result of geopolitical and geo-economic changes that have already resulted from the financial and economic crisis. It is clear that the classical "theory of globalization", based on unipolar world and the dominant one currency that has failed and the future belongs to regional centers of power, forming its own monetary and financial system. A prototype of such a center of power on the Eurasian continent and is today the Customs Union.
Something similar on the Eurasian continent had to come sooner or later: the future of the continent for prospective projects of the transport corridors "North-South" and "East-West". Without a common customs policy to achieve the start of such geopolitical projects, is simply unrealistic.
- How do You assess the prospects of the dollar, Euro, Russian ruble, Chinese yuan?
- Much will depend on the outcome of the struggle of the world's elite. Now we talk a lot about directing role of China in the new economy. In my opinion, it's a contentious statement. I find it strange (not consider this a conspiracy by inference) that the American (and European) competent analytical structure just missed the birth of the Asian dragon. As a rule, (and we largely witness it) even a much smaller-scale threat to the stability of the existing system are destroyed at a much earlier stage.
As for the Russian ruble, he in the coming years, as before, will depend on market conditions on the oil and gas market.
- Why is the current attack Obama on wall street?
- In my opinion, it's just a game. New administration for a year in power, and the main pre-election theses and not executed. Rating drops and need something to do.
In addition, the government has pumped into the financial sector and huge amounts of cash, and even thoughts of a potential return to the U.S. economy of these amounts should throw in the horror of the American administration. So now you need extra just to get rid of under the guise of another attack on bankers.
- How probable second wave of crisis?
- I think that is very likely. Problems in the economies of such countries as Greece and Portugal, show that the reasons for this situation far from resolved. Moreover, many processes are latent and slow enough – budgets and the real economy is not capable of operating in a microsecond mode, which today strives to operate the virtual world of the stock market.
However, the fear that to expedite the situation can be used more drastic measures. First of all, I mean again the growing threat of military conflict between the United States and its allies and Iran. A shake-up of the world market in such a conflict would clearly lead to an even more interesting scenario.
- What conclusions should make the Belarusian political class in a series of past economic conflict with Russia?
- I would not like to give any advice, and especially to comment on past events. I believe that everything happened as it should have happened in the circumstances. Now we have to think about the future. And then there is work to do.
Current development in the world are saying about sharp escalation of tensions. Not accidentally, many analysts use in their conclusions this thesis – the world is heading for war, and to war.
Epoch at the boundary of the change of the Millennium highlighted the many problems of human development, each of which is worthy of separate consideration. First of all, it is the loss of humanity spirituality and the desire to create a new world religion on the principles of modern PR and the political; this issue of the depletion of strategic resources, the problems of extinction of biodiversity, the problems of moral and ethical plan with regard to cloning and bioengineering in General, the problems of global urbanization and disappearance of village, the problems of population ageing and many other.
It is clear that, one way or another, but the need to address these global and many more operational tasks will lead to significant transformations in political and economic life of the population. Mankind will definitely face the need for change not only monetary but social and political relations. In these conditions, of course, national elites would need to be determined. I think that the idea of creating the Customs Union, and derived therefrom the idea of forming a global financial center in the Eurasian continent, deserve to be considered such a unifying project: the circle of tasks is so wide that there is room for both.
Interviewed By Yuri Little Sheep
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