On the predictability of the time of the occurrence of the financial crisis

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On the predictability of the time of the occurrence of the financial crisis

Print version Material posted: -Publication date: 28-09-2009

Prepared analytical report "On the predictability of the time of the occurrence of the financial crisis". Report on 40 sheets. Electronic version available on our website. In the last few decades the world economy has changed significantly, has acquired new properties. Accordingly, classical economic analysis fully alone cannot adequately describe the macroeconomic environment. In particular, there are difficulties in forecasting the onset and consequences of the global financial and economic crises.

For the formation of such projections require consideration of additional important factors that modify the existing methods of describing and forecasting the economic situation, making them increasingly relevant reality. It should be specially noted that from an economic point of view, the development and creation of a complex of such methods of early warning of impending financial and economic crises - a very profitable event. Analysis of the current situation shows that only owners of a very small number of Russian companies were able to feel the approach of the coming crisis, to develop a proactive response and, thus, save a considerable part of their capital. And, in some cases followed by the weeks and days.

Therefore, the discussion of the possibility and methods of predicting the onset of financial and economic crises are of interest not only to academic, but a purely practical point of view. Below are the basics of methodical approaches that can be the basis of an expert system for crisis monitoring and early warning of future crises of different levels.

The content

Introduction
1. The forecast time of occurrence of the global crisis
2. The forecast time of onset of the crisis in Russia
3. Short-term forecast of crisis phenomena in the stock markets
The sources used

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Tags: assessment , economy , crisis , forecasts