The total amount of funds required for the implementation of plans for the improvement of group "Opening", tentatively estimated by the Bank of Russia in the 250-400 billion rubles., said in an interview with Reuters, Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev. According to him, the exact amount will become clear once the interim administration will complete a review of existing assets.
The Chairman of the Central Bank said that the rehabilitation plan is considered about 30 different companies, audit of assets, which was started in the spring of 2017. It is already clear that significant resources will have to spend not only for the Bank "FC Opening", but also to support the group's insurance companies "Rosgosstrakh" and the completion of the reorganization of the Bank "trust", he said.
In a press release on reorganization in the number of financial institutions and specialized services within the group, except the Central Bank "Rosgosstrakh" and "Trust" indicated Rosgosstrakh Bank, NPF "LUKOIL-Garant", NPF of electric power industry, NPF "RGS", "Opening Broker" and "Point" and Rocketbank. In a statement the Central Bank stated that they "will continue to function normally and to serve customers."
According to Vasily Pozdyshev, currently appointed by the Central Bank temporary administration shall ascertain the exact amount of funds provided by the Bank "FC Opening" in the form of loans to the parent holding company and on the completion of this process may take a few months.
In future, the Central Bank, according to Pozdyshev, plans to "unleash the holding company and the Bank", and shareholders and previously managed the Affairs of the Bank managers with him to "constructively cooperate".
"The agreement with the owners such that we are in a short period of time together with them will examine all transactions of the Bank with the holding below the maximum funds back to the Bank", — said the Chairman of the Central Bank. While such operations are one of the objects of doubt, the regulator and may require additional reserves.
According to him, after the appointment of "FC Opening" of the provisional administration that had suspended the implementation of a number of transactions made shortly before the start of rehabilitation, but the amount of these transactions "minor", and information about the withdrawal of assets from the Bank before the reorganization of the Central Bank yet.
After the completion of the audit of the group's assets "Discovery" part trapped in the perimeter of the reorganization of the companies according to Pozdyshev, may be sold or closed, however, the majority of CB plans to develop. So at the end of the improvement — for example in two or three years to sell the Bank "FC Opening" or the whole group to new investors. "If investors, Russian or non-Russian, if ever they decide will be a choice — to get the Bank out of the hands of another private investor or from the hands of the Central Bank, they will prefer out of the hands of the Central Bank because of greater confidence in the regulator", — said Pozdyshev.
The mysterious "FC Opening"
Under the new recovery mechanism — controlled by Central Bank Fund the consolidation of the banking sector (VCBS) — money the Bank of Russia is allocated directly to the capital of the rehabilitated player, in fact, the Bank becomes the owner, technically the shares are in the control of UK "FCBS".
To evaluate a lot or a little in this case, respondents RBC experts. The costs of the reorganization (if we take the maximum of the Central Bank announced 400 billion rubles.) this case is comparable to the Bank of Moscow.
The fact that is actually produced improvement of the group's assets generated before the reorganization, obviously affects the amount of capital requirements increase, says the head of group Finance ACRES Kirill Lukashuk. "The perimeter of the group includes heterogeneous financial assets, there are reciprocal transactions between the Bank and the group companies, so the amount of the actual capital requirements may vary significantly," he notes.
According to a leading expert of "Expert RA" Yuri Belikov, a real need for the asset group "Open" for capital increase of the external analyst to estimate practically impossible in the public domain non-public reporting, which would give a valuation of distressed assets. "You also need to understand that the Bank's capital requirement depends on how the Central Bank will be conservative in their assessments, as well as from political motives, whether they want the regulator to keep the share in the Bank's shareholders in the past or not. If not, the capital will go into the negative zone. While maintaining a minority stake for current owners of zarezerwowane (respectively, the need for Bank capitalization on an unconsolidated basis) will be in the range of 270 billion rubles," says Belikov.
Max Planck, which sounded Pozdyshev, most likely, implies that the Bank will be completely lost the capital, which amounts to 270 billion rubles according to the unconsolidated statements of the Bank, the company on August 1, said Belikov. "If we talk about the risk of the portfolio, the Bank's corporate loan portfolio in excess of 750 billion rubles., represented primarily by long-term credits, the level of coverage where the reserves are low. In this part of the assets and can focus the hidden losses" — like Belikov. The Bank also has assets in the securities of 687 billion rubles As the regulator will assess these assets — a question. Belikov himself does not consider them risky.
As for the Bank "trust", then it is the capital of the company on 1 July (the most recent data available on the website of the Central Bank) amounted to minus 80 billion. "We proceed from the fact that the Central Bank is to close this gap and bring the Bank to the state when it will be implemented the minimum capital standards set by the regulator. It can take at least 20 billion rubles over and above what is directed to close the holes, in my estimation," adds Belikov.
The Bank "trust" was on the rehabilitation of the "FC Opening" since late 2014, his improvement has been allocated 127 billion rubles, thus, this reorganization was occupied until recently the second place after Bank of Moscow.
With estimates of how much money may need to support "Rosgosstrakh" (RGS), all too easy.
Director of the group ratings of financial institutions of an ACRE Alexey Bredikhin indicates that to assess the capital requirement of the CSG is very difficult without detailed due diligence, as it is unclear what amount of the assets may be overvalued. But judging from the available public data, the minimum requirement of the insurance company CSG capital is determined by its loss under IFRS in the first half it amounted to 26 billion rubles. "net loss for the year will largely depend on the implementation of the company's strategy to reduce the presence in the CTP segment. CSG has reduced its stake in this segment with 35% in 2015 to 20% in the second quarter of 2017. But, accordingly, reduced the volume of insurance premiums of the insurance in the first half of 2017, they amounted to 22.2 billion rubles — significantly less than 30 billion rubles. a year earlier," cites figures Bredikhin.
By assumption, the analyst S&P Dmitry Nazarov announced by the Central Bank the figures for the cost of this rehabilitation could be calculated on a consolidated basis, based on the known Central Bank financial positions of the various members of this group, including funding, which was granted Bank holding company "Opening" (about 65 billion rubles, according to the representative of the Bank of Russia), which, apparently, will create the reserves, he did not rule. This must include funding that has already been provided by the Bank to support SK "Rosgosstrakh" added Nazarov.
Boomerang for creditors
From the estimates of the Central Bank requirements in rehabilitated structures in the money determines the fate of the funds already available subordinated creditors of the Bank. As previously reported by the RBC, they have "FC Opening" more than 100 billion rubles.
If we take the estimate of the capital requirement "FC Opening", "Trust" and the bottom of the Central Bank given the border — 250 billion rubles., that is, in an optimistic scenario, there is a slim chance that the basic and additional paid-in capital of the Bank "FC Opening" "will take the brunt, and the subordinated creditors will suffer a partial loss," said senior Director for analysis of financial institutions Fitch Ratings Alexander Danilov.
Risks to inflation
A major issue of funds from the Central Bank, including on the reorganization of significant players, may have some negative impact on inflation, experts say.
However, according to the chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova believes that it is difficult to understand may affect the macro-economy and how this case. "But if you remember that the Central Bank through the Deposit insurance Agency (the previous model of rehabilitation. — RBC) have increased the capitalisation of the banking sector to $ 1 trillion RUB, and significant effects were not, then, the Central Bank announced the amount looks quite reasonable from the point of view of inflation risks," — says Orlov.
Eugene Kalyuk, Julia Titova, Elena Pashutinskaya
- 02-05-2020Four of the Americans ' Outlook: what will happen to the world economy and the US economy
- 21-02-2020The phantom menace: the non-obvious consequences of the depletion of nature for the economy
- 24-07-2019Look at the future of business: five trends postremoval era
- 23-06-2019Industrial revolution 4.0: how the Internet of things is changing business and how to stay afloat