If You ever had to communicate with financial analysts at large companies, to get acquainted with the forecasts of development of the economy, the banking system or stock market, then surely You've heard and seen a lot of entertaining. You talked about gross domestic product and its regional structure, numerous stock indices, exchange rates, interest rates, futures and options, securities courses, showed graphs and charts of sales, etc., etc.
Much of what is said was right, another required clarification, and the third was a basic misinformation. Usually an outside observer, all of this data with specific terminology and its interpretation are complex, confusing and ambiguous.
Meanwhile, if we consider the global economic system in General, many important and hard-to-detect factors are internal to it, and can be excluded from further analysis. Then it turns out that if you try to see the forest for the trees, the foundations of modern world economic systems are quite simple in form and cynical in content.
Currently the base of the world economy is the us dollar. It permeates virtually the entire world.
The latter should be understood as follows: if in some countries, such as Russia, Ukraine, China, are in circulation the national currency, pegged to the U.S. dollar, this means that the financial system of these countries is subordinated to the U.S. financial system. And within these in the form of sovereign countries is in use, in fact, the same U.S. dollar, but under a different name: ruble, hryvnia or us dollar.
August 15, 1971, after another global oil crisis, by decree of the President of the United States was a disconnect between the U.S. dollar and gold. Since that time, the Federal reserve system (FRS) the USA, having the exclusive right of the dollar issue, actually became the most profitable company in the world. The cost of the note issue of $100 is 2-3 cents; therefore, the profitability of "production" is close to 100%. Even greater when it is "emission" of electronic money.
This gave the opportunity to the American economy each year to build a great "tribute" from all over the world, paying for full goods and services with their currency, i.e. in fact — painted green paper. And if in 70-80-ies on the dollar it was still possible to buy something in the US (e.g., real estate), with the introduction of the "electronic money" it becomes more problematic — the printing of the dollar is mainly for external use.
Simply put, without spending almost any funds on a dollar issue, the US exchanges full products on virtually worthless paper.
Just in case, let us explain the meaning of the preceding paragraphs. If, for example, Russia maintains its gold reserves (at the time of this writing, about $410 billion) in long-term U.S. securities, no more than 2-3% per annum and donates annually to reserves by $100-150 billion, it means the following.
First, the annual government investment of Russia to the U.S. economy amount to $100-150 billion Because the money is first received by Russia for raw materials and commodities, then return back to the United States, the net result of this work is the resource transfer from Russia to the United States.
Secondly, you have to be very naïve to believe that this money ever come back back to Russia. Or they will be blocked in case of a crisis, as the financial situation of Iran, Cuba and North Korea, or more delicate way gradually depreciate because the real rate of inflation in the U.S. substantially exceeds the interest on these securities. Actually is money, Russia is forever given to US in accordance with the existing world order. And senior Russian officials know this well. So they were so excited when they were allowed to spend for the next 7 years at least $30-40 billion for the Olympics in Sochi. Although this amounts to only 3-4% of the roughly $1 trillion, that by 2014 Russia will transfer in the United States.
Thirdly, any normal person understands that, on the one hand, to keep their reserves in the US without a 100% guarantee of their return, and to try to make suggestions to the leadership of this country at international summits, threaten them with medium-range missiles in response to the initiative to deploy missile defense systems in Europe (a year ago stating that due to large financial costs, we managed to develop warheads that no ABOUT not afraid; the question is what then to fear?) — the two are incompatible. You need to choose one or the other. Therefore, most likely, broadcast these statements are aimed not external, but internal to consumers, this is one of the elements of the technology of manipulation of public consciousness. In other words, Russian citizens before the parliamentary and presidential elections demonstrate that their safety is taken care of.
A similar situation occurs with the gold reserves of China, Taiwan and some other countries with less developed economies, they are also stored in U.S. securities.
In Fig. 1,2 data are presented on monthly and annual net inflows of foreign capital into the U.S. economy over the past 10 years1.
This is the above "tribute" to all countries of the world. In recent years, its annual amount is about us $0.9 trillion and this value has steadily increased (partly due to inflation of the us dollar). But if this is true, then a natural question arises: why the leaders of many countries continue to play with US in this strange "game" with a guaranteed loss to national interests?
Firstly, because these executives receive their small share of the prize. Such leaders need to pick and "grow" in advance, collecting them weighty enough incriminating material, possibly passing them through "democratic elections", organized on the U.S. model.
But, generally speaking, democracy in donor countries in a strategic sense for the United States only obstacle: democratic institutions can create obstacles for the transfer of capital. Easier to deal with autocratic or even better from dictatorships, not needing anyone's approval of their actions on transfer of capital abroad. It is important that these regimes were externally controlled and their leaders do not deviate from U.S. installations. Otherwise they may have problems such as Iraq and S. Hussein. So if the US is talking about exporting democracy, it is only with this flag to intervene in the Affairs of other countries.
But all this is not enough — there is no guarantee of stability is formed such regimes. Therefore, for reliability, to keep the situation under control are used by the U.S. armed forces.
Currently the U.S. share of global military spending is approaching 50% (table.1). I have the feeling that the United States would militarily oppose the rest of the world.
Therefore, the basis of stability of the American currency today should not be sought in the economy (there it is long gone), and US military power. It provides the world, when the world still treats us dollar. I.e. the U.S. armed forces are not for national defense, and to create conditions for the circulation of the U.S. currency around the world, international racketeering.
How long can it last? For the answer it helps to compare the predicted magnitude of the annual foreign investment in the U.S. economy, the net capital inflow, on the one hand, and military expenditure on the other. While net foreign investment (it is a kind of income of the company under the name "the fed") is larger than military spending (for the enterprise "the fed" they represent the cost of manufactured products or the cost), the existing procedure will continue.
But when annual military spending will exceed net foreign investment in the U.S. economy, further similar activity by the fed will become economically unviable, and the existing economic order must inevitably change — the costs are above revenue, inflated a dollar bubble will burst.
This change will lead to substantial modernization of the rules of the game in the global economy and financial system. This will inevitably entail systemic crises, which, of course, primarily affected by the developing BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China. Will get the countries — participants of the CIS.
To predict time of onset of this crisis should be extended to the future trends of net foreign investment and military expenditures for the United States — Fig.3. It is a dark color presents the dynamics of annual net foreign investment in current prices.
Trends of military expenditures of States were calculated for 2 variants. In both cases, was determined not only the costs of armaments, but also the additional costs of military construction, financing of social programs for veterans, the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the service's nuclear Arsenal, the military expenditures of the state Department and the costs of ensuring the security of the United States.
Considering these additional costs, the military budget 2006 will increase from $453 billion (the official figure) to $669,8 billion, or $216,8 billion (47,75%).
In official 2007 the US military budget is $562,9 billion.
In the first case (red line) it is considered that the additional annual military spending will continue to grow at the same pace as the official military budget of the USA in the period 2006-2007 This is a pessimistic estimate.
Second — optimistic — variant (light line) corresponds to the case where the amount of the annual additional U.S. military spending stays unchanged and is equal to $216,8 billion.
In the first case, the time T1 the onset of the crisis is estimated 2010-2011 second T2 = 2020-2025
Thus, if the established trends continue in the near future, the global financial crisis could erupt in 3-4 years; in the best case — in the next 15 years.
It is clear that the manifestations of the crisis will have to occur before the onset of full-blown systemic crisis. Therefore, in the next decade, the world economy can expect large shocks.
Of course, the U.S. government will try to delay the onset of the crisis. This can be used economic and military tools.
It may seem strange, the main economic tool is raising prices on raw materials and energy. Indeed, the US with virtually nothing to lose — print new dollars is not working. But the exporting countries increase the incentives to intensify the pumping of resources in the United States. Moreover, weakens its main competitors — China and Japan, for which the price increase is an additional financial burden. Note — in most predictions of foreign analytical agencies expected a significant increase in the international price of oil (and Russian Ministers and legislators persistently make state budgets, based on the premise that significant reduction in the price of oil barrel).
The second tool is the gradual depreciation of the us dollar. But since, as noted above, many currencies rigidly pegged to the dollar, the opportunities of this tool is limited. But you can periodically organize the crises in the stock markets (in recent years they began to occur every 8-9 months), simulating the impact of market mechanisms on the dynamics of exchange rates. In addition, the U.S. will sharply oppose the appearance in the world of new independent currencies.
The third tool — using situation before the crisis to keep up with the $ to buy in other countries possible a greater number of assets: property, controlling interests in companies, banks, insurance and investment companies.
The fourth instrument is the seizure of the property of the main deposits of energy resources, precious and strategic metals and minerals. This can assist local entrepreneurs and government officials, focused on the USA.
As the primary military instrument may be very simple scheme — shifting military spending to other countries. This can be created in various military alliances, to commit the U.S. military presence in new regions. The situation with missile defense in Europe is a typical example of such activity: from a military point of view is absurd, but its development in Poland and Slovakia will be American military bases. What kind of armament will be then on these bases, offensively or defensively — it is a matter of the future.
Another area military solution to the problem — the Crusades against other countries (primarily the oil-rich uranium and the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia), for example, under the slogan of democracy or combating terrorism. But now these slogans themselves have largely been exhausted. Therefore, in a short time should appear any new.
The third direction is provoking armed conflict between potential competitors in the regions that will weaken the position of both parties. For example, from a strategic point of view is very advantageous to organize a military conflict between nuclear powers in the Asia-Pacific region — Russia and China, which will lead to the separation of Russia and weakening of China, will make him more compliant.
The fourth area is the improvement and cheapening of offensive weapons, for example, the emergence of new types of cruise missiles and their delivery vehicles with promising types of combat troops and increased accuracy of targeting, improving military units of special purpose.
And, of course, the intensification of interference in the internal Affairs of other countries. The next decade should increase the number of corruption scandals involving the highest officials of the countries to intensify the manipulation of public opinion through the media (misinformation). It is also possible the increase in the intensity of coups with the coming to power of Pro-American political regimes.
The most effective and crucial method of power problem solving in the pre-crisis years is to initiate a new world war. It allow to write off all debts (today, total U.S. debt is about $40 trillion. — the value is clearly unaffordable for several generations of American taxpayers) and start a new economic period with a clean slate. Most likely, if it comes to that, the U.S. will go approximately the same as in due time they arrived in the 2nd World war — first will create the financial basis of the conflict, and arrange appropriate attack or crisis in the financial markets, and then try to keep away from decisive events. But at the last moment, when the enemy forces will be depleted, will intervene with a new project of repartition of the world in their interests.
The world will change after the crisis, now it is difficult to predict. But one thing is for sure — again would need a real General equivalent of value — gold, a new rare metal or mineral. Or really exotic things — for example, a tablet, giving the possibility of extending human life, some kind of universal chip tech or some portion of a standardized energy source (energy currency) — barrel of oil, 1,000 m3 natural gas 1 kg of enriched uranium, thorium or plutonium. As a standard value you can use 1 kWh of electrical energy. Finally, given the neglect of environmental problems in the world, as an universal equivalent of value can be considered clean drinking water.
In the 21st century will significantly increase the role of "world government", which currently manifests itself even mildly — in the form of the UN, the world Bank, the IMF, the group of eight. After the crisis against the background of overcoming its negative effects will require more stringent management of resources, which would provide an objective basis for a clearer manifestation of the "world government" and strengthen its role.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the results of the estimates of the expected time of the onset of the global economic crisis coincide with the predictions of some regional economic crises, for example, Russian. This is not surprising: many countries, despite the Declaration of sovereignty, has long been integrated into the global economic system. Therefore, many processes in these countries are developing in-phase, which is the objective basis of the correlation of the onset of the crisis.
1 Report of the US Treasury international capital flow on the website http://www.alpari-idc.ru/ru/fa/26766.html
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