On January 26 in Davos, opened the 41st world economic forum (WEF) which was held under the motto "New rules for the new reality". The forum has been paid attention to almost every region of the world. Most attention went to the China – economy participants of the forum spoke at three sessions.
In his opening speech the head of the forum, Klaus Schwab stressed that the focus of the current session of the forum to find the answer to the question "How to build the future the right path?". "We all depend on each other, has accumulated a lot of complex issues, it is unclear how to cope with the scale change," said Schwab, noting that "we can talk about the global symptom of fatigue." Saying that "...we continue to extinguish fires, not to solve global problems...", Klaus Schwab offered to fight "from plaguing the world with desperate inspiration," and to show "constructive optimism." He finished with a quote: "We should all be optimists and idealists. We do not know exactly what we want, but we know the direction and we are in the way..."1.
A selection of such absurdities it is hard to ignore. So – review No. 1.
Earlier on the 16-th band of the Literary Gazette constantly present collective character – lyudoved and dosely Evgeny Sazonov. One of his famous phrases was: "I have always believed that a marriage of convenience can be happy if calculation is right". It remains to understand what do you mean "correct", and how to distinguish "correct" from "wrong"?
Already in the formulation of the basic problem of the 41st world economic forum, contains an ambiguity: what is the correct way? How to distinguish the right path from the wrong? If the path is correct, then who?
And then, as these people assume inspired with something to fight, showing "constructive optimism", if they are not given to know exactly who they are fighting, and what they seek?
Thus, immediately after the opening of the forum all became clear – there will again be only empty words and shaman ritual.
Although chronologically, the forum began with a discussion of Russian issues, we will begin with the problems, more important for the global economic system.
The main purpose of the forum was to discuss the new economic reality that is formed, despite unstable global economic growth. Session under this title became the informal opening of the forum. The pace of recovery in emerging markets has exceeded expectations, there is no risk of the scenario W-shaped depression and stagnation (so thought the majority of the participants), companies are publishing optimistic reports, and the markets are growing worldwide, said Professor Nouriel Roubini. But there are reasons for alarm, he warned: inflation is skyrocketing in developing countries, the rise in prices of commodities and food, political instability. To global risk, Roubini attributed the high unemployment rate in the United States, along with a giant budget deficit. According to the forecast of the budget Committee of the U.S. Congress, the deficit in 2011 will reach a record $1.5 trillion. and the unemployment rate will not fall below 9.2 per cent.
The bubbles on the asset markets, rising prices for raw materials and state debt are key risks, agreed representatives of business. Excessive asset growth in the emerging markets they are called disturbing.
On the forum it turned out that particularly worrying investors in China. 45% of the 1000 interviewed by the Agency Bloomberg investors fear that the rapid growth of economy and investment in China in the next 5 years, replaced by the crisis (40% believe that it will happen after 2016). The challenge for China is that the US can no longer be the consumer's No. 1, says Roubini2.
Comment No. 2. That's where, it turns out, the root of the major problems in developing markets. And we, naive, naively thought that the main source of world economic problems and the rotten world financial system based on the American dollar.
In the US everything is ready to throw in the world another pile of green paper that says "$600 billion" And note that while President Barack Obama has proposed to Congress to freeze domestic spending budget3. "America's prosperity depends on the ability to reduce the debt burden and improve competitiveness". In fact, Obama is planning a strike on the most effective American corporations that make the country competitive on the world market. He also suggested that by 2035, about 80% of American energy be produced from clean energy sources.
You know what that means? With balakovskogo translate into Russian: managers of the "Golden billion" talking about the necessity of saving. That's terrible: if they have at least a little to become Thrifty, not to buy certain desired villas, yachts or private planes, the rest of the world will not find it too. This means that the easily accessible oil by 2035 will end. When such statements are made, not good. Remember how in the Soviet Union ended the "food program"? Therefore, the next financial crisis is not far off.
Regarding the growth of markets around the world. Look what happened in the 2.5 years after the "crisis" of 2008, Everything seems to be back on track: stock index, oil prices, the growth rate of economies. In Russia, only the dollar and the Euro rose. But this is purely a Russian problem: because of the running problems of the Russian economy without the global financial crisis, the ruble should be devalued. Therefore, with the amendment to the internal problems of Russia, as if everything is in place, everything is back to early 2007, with one significant exception – the price of gold rose more than 2 times. Who had gold, who exactly won "the crisis." But who had? That's right, the representatives of the "old international club" – the Rothschilds. In the Golden scale, all major economic indicators fell more than 2 times. Now with Roubini together to rejoice on the "exit" from this "crisis". Hope that this time, it seems, had passed. But carried?
We are called to worry about the Chinese economy. And do the experts of the United States – the country in which 80-90% of GDP is not connected with the real economy. From China is a horror story based on the fact that if you repeatedly call black white and white black, then gradually all get used to it. The main feature of China's economy, which never say American experts is that China does not allow the us dollar to destroy our financial system. And all the talk about the undervaluation of the yuan, and concern about the Chinese economy is a way to save a good mine at bad game. In the US, many of their problems (one the Federal budget deficit, which only costs, not to mention the external debt of $14 trillion) they have with them to somehow understand and not about China to worry about. Realizing the ambiguity of the situation, the leadership of the United States in the forum arrived, Komandirov forum analysts type Roubini.
The representatives of the Eurozone tried to prove its viability, despite the enormous debts of Greece, Spain and Portugal. "There are people who doubt the Euro's ability to survive, – said the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy. We have read many articles about it, and the Euro is alive and well." The absence of the Euro crisis and said the President of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet2.
The disappearance of the Euro will lead to the fall of Europe, warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking on 28 January in front of the delegates.
"The Euro is our currency and if the Euro falls, Europe will fall. So we will continue to defend the Euro, and there is no doubt," said Merkel4. At the same time, she stressed that we must be realistic, and the leaders of European countries should be in solidarity in their determination to jointly overcome existing problems, in particular large accumulated public debt.
The head of the German government noticed that I'm not sure that world leaders, including the heads of the countries "the twenty" fully learned the lessons of the crisis. "What we did is still not enough," said Merkel. In its view, to prevent a new global and financial crisis need to focus on the currency system, making them more sustainable, to complete the Doha round of negotiations to liberalize world trade and to avoid speculation on commodity markets.
"There is no crisis of the Euro is primarily a debt crisis," – said the German Chancellor. Merkel called positive the fact that France currently leads a Group of 20 of the agenda, which is presented by the French President, based on the right moments."
Nicolas Sarkozy, speaking at the plenary session of the forum, assured that "Mrs Merkel and I will never give the abyss the Euro." "The Euro is not just a currency, it is also a matter of Economics, identity /Europeans/," – said Sarkozy4.
Review No. 3. Indeed, the Eurozone's problems are – very serious. The public debt of Greece, Italy has already surpassed the GDP of these countries, the public debt of Ireland is very close to that point, the case of Poland, Romania, Hungary, Baltic countries – at the same level (Fig. 1 – data5), the GDP almost does not increase, the zone of relative economic stability, the center of which are Germany and France, are shrinking like shagreen leather.
If any private company had such financial situation as Greece, Italy, Ireland, the firm would be declared bankrupt, she should have been appointed an external Manager, and the property had to be eliminated.
But to understand the long-term prospects important words of Sarkozy about the value of the Euro to preserve the identity of Europeans. If the Eurozone will disintegrate, it will be gradually absorbed on the one hand, the dollar and the yuan. The dollar is clear: for him, the Euro – a no and a competitor. Therefore, to expand the area of circulation of the dollar due to the problematic Western European countries – it means the dollar prolong the agony, the maximum push for the future hour principled decisions on dismantle of the dollar pyramid. The same reason motivates and China, with $2.85 trillion. international reserves, 65% of which is denominated in dollars. China needs to get rid of this paper, and the sooner the better. He is willing to redeem part of the debt of European countries, not to mention the buying of European companies. Therefore, if Europe loses the Euro, it in the financial sense will be quickly torn apart.
In this regard, the position of Germany and France at the economic forum –an objective and pragmatic. Although, to be expected. So much debate on it was not.
Cautious optimism Merkel and Sarkozy acceptable, not all. For example, the President of Sberbank German Gref believes that "All investors fear for the fate of the Euro and the Eurozone. If the whole world believes that the crisis in the Euro zone is present, and the people responsible for its dynamics, they say that there is no crisis, the problem is not with people, but with those who it proclaims"2.
Golden words. Especially if this phrase is to change a little by replacing the word "Euro" to "ruble". But what about the ruble, Gref for obvious reasons this way did not spread.
Fig.1 (source: RBC)
So now let's move to the fun part for us – to the Russian proposal at the world economic forum.
The President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the forum first, had to start to fight inspiration with despair and pessimism.
He arrived in Davos on the opening day of the forum, January 26. Due to the terrorist attack in Domodedovo his participation in the world economic forum has been reduced to one day. Klaus Schwab introduced Medvedev to the participants of the forum and the preceding speech of the Russian President, announced a minute of silence in connection with the terrorist attack in Domodedovo. The audience stood up.
With the theme of attack, Medvedev began his speech: "Those who committed the crime, hoping that it will put Russia on its knees, forced to take a defensive position, the President will not attend this forum, including of course, that's why it was the chosen place and time1. Explaining that Russia is aware of its responsibilities towards its citizens and obligations to the international community, the President said: "that is why to this day I speak from this podium. Sincerely thank you for your feelings."
The attack is not the theme of the economic forum. But if she was given such attention, comment No. 4.
In recent years, in Russia there were some strange shy terrorists. They do not call themselves do not publicly declare their claims. In Budennovsk it was clear: put forward specific requirements, he conducted negotiations with the Prime Minister. And here an explosion and then silence.
Terrorists by nature are bound to show themselves. The attack allows them to "unwind", to appear. The attack is first and foremost a PR campaign. In Russia, from accidents, from poor quality vodka, and smoke in fires are killed by orders of magnitude more people. But in those cases, citizens do not address their claims directly to the Supreme power, but the terrorist attacks have addressed. Therefore, the government is so sensitive they react. D. Medvedev would not come to me to speak in Davos about the victims, for example, the Russian accident.
Consider a collection of related with the attack of 4 elements: "citizens, terrorists, government, external forces".
Citizens from a terrorist attack for sure suffered. The terrorists did not show himself. External forces who allegedly wanted to prevent Dmitry Medvedev to come to the forum, under the authoritarian and totalitarian States is meaningless to carry out the attacks – it still does not change, even on the election results is not affected.
Terrorism can be effective in democratic countries, where the population participates in the actual elections. In autocratic and totalitarian countries, it does not work – the authorities do not care about the election results and how do you feel citizens after the terrorist attacks – according to the results of the future election campaign is already solved. Russia belongs to autocratic countries: the case of Yuri Luzhkov once again is clearly shown.
Distributable version of revenge is also not convincing: why risk life to take revenge on random people, instead of the real offenders?
If you consistently exclude all extraneous elements, that is, as Sherlock Holmes used to say? That's right – the state of the or its some part.
After Beslan, abolished the elections of regional heads. What follows Domodedovo on the background of growing protest activity, we will soon see. This is unlikely to contribute to the improvement of the investment climate in Russia.
Then Medvedev has passed to the main topic. He warned that it is premature to say "the end of the global financial crisis" because we "only managed part of the symptoms." Listing the lessons that have been learned from the struggle with the crisis, the President singled out a few important points.
So, he did not agree with "nationalization, even temporary, of the largest financial institutions – although this approach to solving the problem was chosen by the governments of many countries with more developed economies". "We have not enough developed economy, but we will abstain"– said Medvedev1. In addition, he talked about the benefits of living within our means, pointing to the budget deficit and public debt in many developed countries, the need for global partnership (he praised the creation of "the twenty"). In the framework of the global partnership is necessary from his point of view, to make "new alliances of leaders gained their authority". For this he considered would be useful to include the currencies of BRICS countries in the basket of special drawing rights of the IMF." Dmitry Medvedev noted that a variety of different forms of market economy is the "advantage rather than a disadvantage," because "a single-format world is full of risks, a multi-format world these risks are offset".
Comment No. 5. If you do not believe that spoken words are more General and concrete idea to include the currencies of BRICS countries in the basket of special drawing rights of the IMF for Russia in connection with the state of the economy prospects does not yet have, like the rest of it right. Problems in detail.
For example, on the question of nationalization: in normal countries natsionaliziruyut strategic and profitable enterprises, and privatizing unprofitable. But as you know, Russia does not mind to understand that here, on the contrary, if the company or business make a profit, they need to privatize, distributing to their friends, associates and classmates. And unprofitable enterprises, on the contrary, to privatize, to have their losses covered by taxpayers. Here is the distorted decision rule: the privatization of profits and nationalization of losses. Perhaps some potential investors who wish to equip Russia with the highest state officials, this will appeal.
Then Dmitry Medvedev moved to the Russian Affairs. Anticipating the new opportunities offered by the modernization of the Russian economy, he warned that the list will be 10 points1. The hall gasped, and Medvedev began to list them.
The 1st paragraph was named program of privatization of major state assets. Medvedev noted that the list of strategic enterprises is reduced several times.
The 2nd paragraph was devoted to the creation of a special sovereign Fund that will share the risks with investors.
3rd related to the development of the Russian financial sector and, in particular, the creation of the Moscow financial centre.
Then Medvedev spoke of creation in terms of a common economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific," about the SKOLKOVO and the General course on development of innovative entrepreneurship, energy efficiency program and the establishment of global partnerships with the exchange of assets in the energy sector. Such partnerships, from the point of view of Medvedev, will be one of the key factors of energy security, and new alliances "Rosneft" is the transition from words to action in this direction."
Next was the aforementioned transfers of technologies (as examples, the purchase of helicopter carrier "Mistral"), the spread of broadband Internet across Russia, personal success stories of citizens and infrastructure, in particular sports projects.
Containing 1.5 thousand people and filled to capacity hall listened to Medvedev very closely. However, at the 4th paragraph of the modernization proposals, several people started leaving.
Judging by the responses of the Western press, speech, Medvedev is not particularly impressed the participants of the world economic forum6. The President talked a lot about it, giving it for real, honestly recognized the existing problems in the country, but did not say how to solve them. And most importantly – did not explain to investors why they should invest money in Russia and not somewhere else.
Answering questions, Dmitry Medvedev praised recent events in Tunisia, in particular, the ability of the authorities to maintain contact with society when governments fail to keep with social change – all ends very sad, said the President), spoke about the fight against corruption, praised relations with Iran, and finally, he assured the hall that is not afraid of WikiLeaks as "not read anything new to add to what was published." "Maybe someone hurt, but not us, we're strong guys," said Medvedev1.
Review No. 6. First WikiLeaks, which, incidentally, is published and data on individual States, the highest Russian officials. It turned out, to put it mildly, that these data are very different from the figures contained in their financial disclosure statements. Called figures of $40 billion, $14 billion, etc. But that Medvedev is nothing new – we are strong guys, we are tens of billions won't touch.
Now about the sovereign Fund. We have not so long ago was so fond. Officially it was called a Stabilization, but in conversations policy explained that the Fund for future generations.
Interestingly, in the government Decree "On procedure of management of means of Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation" dated 21 April 2006 No. 229, of the country, in securities of governments of which the Ministry of Finance may invest monies in alphabetical order, but in the English alphabet: "debt in the form of securities of the governments of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, the UK and the USA, denominated in US dollars, euros and English pounds. This fact gave grounds to say that the law on the placement of the stabilization Fund were written abroad.
Television policy a few years said that if the money to spend right now, there will be high inflation. So they need to invest in a Stabilization Fund. Then he realized that this argument is stupid: it turns out that we pass on to future generations of high inflation. The stabilization Reserve Fund was divided into Reserve Fund (much of which has already been spent) and the Fund of national welfare.
It's been a few years. The kids have grown up, someone even people. Here they are – the future generations. And the Fund was spent: originally, no one claimed that he intended for the future generations of all Russian citizens. So it's only fair. And the fact that top officials and their families – is only 0.001% of all Russian citizens, so Russia is no surprise.
Many of the Russian participants of the 41st economic forum took a warm interest in the use of the contingency Fund by showing how "efficient owners", they are actually: gained abroad loans and as soon as having problems with debt, they decided for public money, i.e. taxpayers ' money.
Now it is proposed to create a new sovereign Fund that will share the risks with investors. We this offer is not surprised about its capabilities wrote back in 2009, So that is nothing unexpected, and the more revolutionary in that proposal no. Well, at least now openly refers to the sharing of risks. Translated from Russian in Davos this means that if foreign businessmen associated with the higher Russian officials, in the future there will be financial problems, will solve them in the familiar elegant Russian manner – stomping another sovereign Fund created by the money of Russian citizens. This "revolutionary" proposal no one in Russia for 25 years, is not surprised.
Presenting at the forum the main directions of modernization of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev said that the modernization of the Russian energy sector will be implemented through global partnerships based on exchange of assets.
Dmitry Medvedev stressed that Russia, "taking into account its special energy of the place" it is important that the energy sector became one of the main engines of innovation. "With this purpose, the modernization will be carried out through global partnerships based on exchange of assets", – said the President of the Russian Federation.
According to him, such partnerships will be a key factor in energy security, which was discussed at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg in 2006
Speaking on this matter, the President of the Russian Federation recalled, in particular, about the recent transactions made with the participation of NK "Rosneft". "I hope that new alliances of "Rosneft" is the transition from words to action in this direction," – said Medvedev7.
Comment No. 7. For specifics: in the framework of the world economic forum, the Russian open society "NK "Rosneft" and the American ExxonMobil signed an agreement on joint development of Black sea shelf8. A priority project in the framework of this agreement provides for the exploration and development of a site "the Tuapse deflection". Will set up a joint operating company to conduct exploration and production at the Tuapse trough. This offshore deep section area of 11.2 thousand sq. km, located along the black sea coast of Krasnodar region. The share of the American company in a joint venture for development of the Tuapse deflection amount of 33.3% and Rosneft – respectively, to 66.7%. For the period of exploration, the funding will carry out Exxon Mobil. It is expected that a detailed agreement on the project will be signed before the end of this year. According to the CEO of Exxon Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil may invest about $1 billion in the project of development of the Tuapse trough.
In Soviet times all these fields on the black sea coast in Tuapse, as well as wells in Abkhazia were explored and then closed – the Communists were smart enough not to ruin the only available resting place of the entire USSR (just in case, the information the authors of this article do not belong to any political party). But, it is clear that project developers and their families do not plan their holiday on the black sea coast of the Caucasus. By the way, the very existence of the project indicates the imminent end of easily accessible oil reserves in Russia.
In his speech at the forum the President of the Russian Federation had to give "signals" to foreign investors that Russia is open to investment and willing to improve the investment climate.
Review of Die Welt, Berlin, Germany "Davos is a place where politicians can dream... But seldom the desired and actual defended so far away from each other, as during the speech of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev... Medvedev wanted to show the modern Russia... so first of all the heads of state at Davos he took to the podium a sheet of paper and your iPad...
The basis of his speech was a plan of 10 points, which was mentioned all what we want foreign investors... But important questions remained unanswered. Why this wish list, many items of which were announced many years ago, is still not implemented at least in part? What guarantees can you give Medvedev to ensure foreign investment? And how Affairs with freedom of the press in Russia? About the same time Medvedev did not say a word..." 9
The Boston Globe, Boston, USA "the Dark and suspended in his 1st opening of the World economic forum speech, Medvedev listed the reasons why foreign companies should inject funds to a country that is in need of them and thus corrupt, too dependent on oil, where investors suffered from the clumsy actions of the state. To sell this idea may be a daunting task at the meeting of the 2.5 thousand people, focused on the growing influence of China, barely restraining concern with the bog of the European debt and financial crisis, which left many people without work..." 9
This was followed by a closed meeting of D. Medvedev with the international business Council, the results of which are unknown to journalists.
Review No. 8. As stated in10, "for more than 20 years (including last years of the USSR) we go there, and still in the agenda meeting with us. Dmitry Medvedev, Igor Shuvalov, Igor Sechin again had to present the Russian economy, the extent of talent and habits to prove that we have the rules of the game, and that the state carefully to the investors."
The logical questions are: why does Russia need foreign investments, where they engage and on what terms?
In Russia, there is money. In 2006, international reserves were transferred to the $121.5 billion., in 2007 – $172,7 billion in 2008, the reserves decreased by $49.3 billion in 2009 again increased to $11.9 billion in 2010, $37.1 billion In total for 5 years in the reserves were transferred nearly $294 billion And is excluding the $204 billion spent on anti-crisis program, which are mainly destined to the Russian banks.
Transfer by one hand hundreds of billions of dollars in international reserves, and the other to ask for financial assistance from foreigners, including for SKOLKOVO is something strange. Without using too much medical terms it is difficult to explain.
Perhaps the only reasonable explanation is the following: Russia was firmly inscribed in the global financial system. And, so that, despite the liquidation of the debts to the IMF, continues to bind the issue of its national currency to allocated reserves reserves of dollars, euros and British pounds.
Look at the pic. 2 – the amount of money a high efficiency (approximately 80% of the money aggregate M2) is tightly correlated with the magnitude of international reserves. Deviations were observed only in the pre-crisis years and during the crisis; but then the financial systems of many other countries was unbalanced.
Fig.2. The amount of accumulated reserves and the amount of money
80% of M2 is money that can be engaged quickly enough to make payments, something similar to the monetary aggregate M1. However, since reliable statistics are available only on M2, the correlation between the magnitude of international reserves and M2.
Ie, despite the fact that in 1971, the United States actually revoked the Bretton Woods agreement linking the us dollar to gold, Russia continues to dutifully follow these agreements in terms of binding its currency to the dollar, is not backed by gold.
But if a country is under external control, then why to invest? Is not it easier and safer to invest directly in the US, the EU and the UK? Investments are possible, but only in the presence of attractive strategic investment zones.
Now let's see if in Russia such zones, ie will try to answer the question "where to invest"?
Oil on the black sea coast we've already figured out, but what else? Everything else seems to be busy. Gazprom will not be allowed, there, to sit on the gas pipe. The rest of the Russian industry in this state that domestic mobile phone can not do; the companions, like ripe apples, bundles fall into the ocean. Other people's goods on a space orbit somehow derive, but their own – does not work: Russian research spacecraft no. Yes there are spacecraft, a normal computer keyboard can not do. In General, doreformirovalis ambitious.
This is also confirmed by the fact that in the last decade, Russia has not been able to attract not only foreign capital, but also to keep private. The only exception: 2006-2007, But it is clear that this feature of pre-crisis, and capital – speculative. Most likely, he came under the personal guarantee of the highest Russian officials. Came with one goal – to make some time to go with the promised profit. By the way, the fact of positive net capital inflows in economically troubled Russia for several years can be considered as a good leading indicator of impending financial crisis. It analysts for the future.
Thus, it appears that the answer about the possibility of foreign investment can be resolved only when the answer to the following question "on what terms?"
Perhaps, refinement of these special conditions and was devoted to a closed meeting of Medvedev with the international business Council.
A good task for the analyst: Your assumptions about the topics of this meeting?
Remember how prepared the agreement on reduction of strategic offensive agreements. Were there such a secret? No, all found it possible to state beforehand the Contracting parties, and that allowed the validation was in sight. And here – secrets of the Madrid court. Perhaps to discuss foreign investment in Russia was more secret than the provisions of the start Treaty.
But some assumptions not difficult to do.
Surely they discussed issues of support of international business one of the possible candidates for the Russian presidential election in 2012
It is very likely that they discussed "concrete" conditions of foreign investment – who, what and why (e.g., due to new Russian sovereign Fund) foreign investors would be guaranteed a profit. Then of course, as they say, "to agree on the beach" on the amount of this profit.
May have discussed personal financial interests of senior Russian officials in foreign business.
Could discuss a future financial crisis. People sign: when the Russian officials are beginning a lot, and flowery to speak about brilliant prospects of foreign investment on Russia as the "island of stability", you need to prepare for the crisis (remember also the statement of Boris Yeltsin in August 1998, 2 days before the crisis, the Rouble is stronger than ever!"?)
Until 1971, when the world lived the real economy, economic crises, certainly happened. Suffice it to recall the Great Depression. But to hold them was much more difficult than in today's virtual economy, based on the paper U.S. dollar.
Remember the novel by A. Tolstoy "the Hyperboloid of engineer Garin", where the protagonist suffered, getting from a 6 kilometre-deep gold, in order to destroy the gold standard and make the world financial crisis? Naive: it is currently fed enough to run the printing press to issue new dollars, and the us government to fit a pair of aircraft carriers to the borders of those countries who dare to protest against it. Virtual economy creates controlled crises.
There are already signs of such a new crisis. Please also note the following: in 2012-2013, in many countries there can be a change of leaders, elections and appointments (the latter is for China). Change the main part of the G8 and G20. It's time to arrange a new crisis, writing off the arisen problems on past leaders.
That's why you invited the forum participants to deal with overcoming the world through the inspiration of desperation" and to show "constructive optimism."
If you go back to the conditions of foreign investment in Russia, the Russian government has repeatedly demonstrated that it is not always responsible for their words10. Several times in the last decade, Davos began amid high-profile litigation over the overlapping Russian gas to Ukraine or Belarus, and Eastern Europe. The most liberal plans, declared in Davos, our officials have not been implemented. The members of the Russian delegation do not tire of repeating that they do not need to learn10.
Then it turns out that support for foreign investors the Russian government can only be targeted – will support not only the most important and tractable. Probably this basic idea and needed to convey to potential foreign investors at a closed meeting.
The first day of the forum ended with a secular reception on behalf of the President of Russia, where the owners of the largest Russian capital in the absence of Dmitry Medvedev were able to relax and feel at ease. The oligarchs, smiling broadly, moved through the restaurant Palas in Arabella Sheraton Hotel Seehof. Maestro Valery Gergiev as he could "reclaim" the audience with Rachmaninoff's music in a brilliant performance of Denis Matsuev and Alexei Markov11.
The reception was supposed to open personally Dmitry Medvedev. However, the President has seriously reduced the program of stay in Davos and came just the day before in order to meet with representatives of the Western capital to open a basic session VEF.
However, the appointment was not cancelled. It was opened by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. Recalling that the President was forced to leave Davos for the attack, he invited the audience to feel the spirit of Davos that guests successfully did. The oligarchs were treated to a few snacks and a toast of wine and champagne.
Among the guests were the head of VTB Andrey Kostin, AFK "System" Vladimir Evtushenkov, Sberbank – German Gref, the VEB Vladimir Dmitriev, of "Basic element" Oleg Deripaska, "Severstal" Alexey Mordashov, the "Troika Dialogue" Ruben Vardanyan, "Renova" – Viktor Vekselberg, "Rosnano" Anatoly Chubays, "the Russian standard" Rustam Tariko, "Group E4" Mikhail Abyzov, the Deputy mayor of Moscow Andrey Sharonov, the Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev and a dozen well-known names and persons11.
At the end of the first day the guests began to disperse only after midnight. But the part of the capitalists from the composition of young moved to the lobby bar of the hotel where they continued to talk about the fate of the Motherland. Almost by L. Filatov: "I Smear butter sandwich. Just a thought: what about the people?".
In the morning all participants of a social event was to take part in session of the forum devoted specifically to Russian modernization. She passed not without conflicts. Instead of the expected questions in the Khodorkovsky case, Western businessmen recalled Russia's Magnitsky case.
First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who replaced left the forum Dmitry Medvedev, had to make excuses and ask "to trust people in Russia." He showed a map of Russia, where the letter "i" was clearly marked with possible objects to attract foreign investment. However, it is unclear why on this map to date, and is not caught 4 Russian letters "I" (institutions, infrastructure, innovations, investments)? The words of a good, current, and said even in 2008 the future President Dmitry Medvedev at the Krasnoyarsk economic forum.
Igor Shuvalov held a presentation, improve the investment image of the country. And explained to them – as if the presidential position, – that in Russia when you do business, you can both make and lose everything and even die12. Investors would have to say Igor Shuvalov thank you so much. From a Frank conversation with him it became clear what is meant by a good investment climate in Russia. This is, firstly, patronage on the part of officials, and better than the senior, and, secondly, the maximum loyalty to the authorities12.
From the point of view of big business – a great scheme. But what about small and medium businesses, the scope of which would be embarrassing to show people to the highest state level? But for bright who held the presidential presentation Frank Shuvalov? for the largest, superinvestors.
Shuvalov's ability to believe has been praised by Russian participants. "If the 1st Vice-Premier says: "I love my country" (this phrase Igor Shuvalov said during the session), this is a good signal for investors",– said the head of Sberbank German Gref9.
Love theme officials to the Homeland requires a deviation from the main topic and specific comment No. 9.
As, probably, would have said Bulgakov's Koroviev "Naturally, why dear Igor Ivanovich did not love their country? Where he will find a country where his disabled wife, housewife, in 2008 from different sources received about 365 million rubles, and in 2009 has about 642 million rubles – 100 times more than her husband13. Good: 1-1,5 million rubles per day. And, of course, such a bright focus requires subsequent revelations. As said the said Koroviev, this can all take a warm interest.
In the evening of the 2nd day of the forum, January 27 in the evening in the Villa rented in Davos, the owner "Rusala" Oleg Deripaska, held a private party for a narrow circle of heads of major Western companies, where he performed a Cossack choir9. The choir impressed the many participants of the WEF – even those at the party were not. News of a powerful investment signal" Deripaska quickly spread among the participants of the forum.
In contrast Oleg Deripaska, head of investment company "Troika Dialog" Ruben Vardanyan demonstrated the potential investors, cultural and sports values in Russia. On the outdoor rink in the centre of Davos, next to the ice Palace Vaillant Arena Ice Stadium was shown a new version of the show on ice "city Lights", created by renowned figure skater and producer Ilya Averbuch. A play in which he plays Averbukh traveler, looking for friends rather than investors, well went to the main context of the 41st session of the WEF, which, as already mentioned in the beginning, was held under the motto "New rules for the new reality". Skaters, otkatala performance in light suits, given the challenges at Davos 12 degrees below zero, at the same time showed that the frost is not so much a lack of Russia, as it told investors this morning at a special session devoted to Russia's modernization. However, the audience among the Russian participants of the WEF to such demonstrations were not ready, and together with the Western colleagues were warmed after the performance, mulled wine, pancakes with caviar and cakes. The show allowed Vardanyan at the same time to present the company – the performance was dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the "Troika". At the end on the ice were filled with fuel with alcohol and set on fire by the numeral 20, and all skaters at the same time began to dance to the song "long Road" 9.
In this place, just do not one can not forget the literary classic "Oh, three! bird Troika, who invented you? know spirited people you could only be born in the land that likes to joke and RowNum-gladney was dispersing on the middle of nowhere... was it Not you, Russ, that brisk neobhodima three going?.. Russ, where do you carry? give me the answer. Is not the answer... misses all that is on earth, and, glancing, postarayutsya and give her the way other peoples and Nations"
Continue the main theme.
At Breakfast on January 27, given by the head of Sberbank, was attended by the head of Deutsche Bank Josef Ackermann and the head of the new York stock exchange Duncan Niederauer. They meet the Deputy head of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev, the Deputy head of the economic development and trade Kirill Androsov, and also flew to Davos on one day the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin9. He told about the plans of turning Moscow into a global financial center, where it will be comfortable and profitable to work in Western financial companies. The mayor also promised to introduce new standards of city management, to beat traffic, to simplify management in Moscow business. Investors he invited directly to participate in the placing of the city order.
German Gref held among the invited e-survey9. He revealed that at the 1st place among the common problems for investors in Russia is corruption, at the 2nd traffic problems on 3-m business climate.
No problems, only with office space.
The main problem for the development of the financial sector investors called the judicial system, in 2nd place were corporate governance, 3rd low level of financial education. The least of the problems was the tax system.
The main competitive advantages of Russian investors called the high qualification level of specialists, the presence of a large number of energy companies and geographical location. And the head of Deutsche Bank Josef Ackermann said: "We have spent many years working in Russia, and we feel more and more comfortable there. And we are seriously looking at how Russia is seeking to create a financial centre".
Gay his thinking, as always, pleased with Anatoly Chubais (he has done it before the speech Medvedev). With his professional point of view, "investors in General – this is such a special creature that always wants to invest, like any animal wants to eat. Instead of just chit-chat with him it is necessary to run properly"1. Problems with the investment climate in Russia is, but he is willing to help investors to solve them (and we sort of understandhow he's going to do it!). Besides, in his opinion, high-tech innovation projects are less vulnerable with regards to Russian issues such as hostile takeovers and corruption. In Davos Chubais is going to expand the list of partners of RUSNANO: "we Have no funding problems (why?). We have a problem of technology partnerships and attracting smart money. Where as in Davos to solve this problem".
"Our main task is to bring to investors our vision of the situation in Russia and in the world: and what will be in our country, how we will treat the investors", – said the President of Sberbank German Gref. He took part in the session "Restructuring the international monetary system". This debate, according to Gref, was more theoretical in nature: hardly anyone has real recipes redesigning the system, it's about intellectual discussion, added Gref14. In General, the movement of the all – purpose nothing. In this regard, the last comment No. 10.
In article15 it is noted that the world economic forum in Davos has lost its significance, becoming a banal vanity fair. This is the truth.
The unique combination of elitism and informality, which in times past allowed the rulers of the world, freely communicating, to unravel the complicated global problems rooted in the past. In Davos now feel compelled to go all and Sundry get – together has grown so that the efficiency of the world economic forum as a place to brainstorm began to raise doubts. Rather, it is the place where they were going to show themselves and for others to see.
Last year the participants of Davos was met with a barely noticeable optimism: as if the disaster had not happened, life goes on. You can now enjoy possible – 2010 was good and 2011 economists at all appointed lifting. Perhaps that is why the agenda of Davos-2011 is not particularly impressive as a vague slogan this year: "Shared norms for the new reality". Participants once again discussed global risks and opportunities "twenty" to stabilize the world economy. We talked about the problems of Europe, about inflation, rising prices of raw materials and food, the upbringing of children and the role of women in business.
The most informative was the discussion about the new role of Asian countries, and about the "two speeds", which is now global economy. After the crisis, it is driven by the developing economies: developed countries ceased to be the locomotive of world development. The main hero of the forum was China. Chinese and Indian delegations were the most numerous for the whole history of the forum.
With rising economic power China still manages to remain aloof from political responsibility for the state of the world economy posed by the traditional leaders – the US, Japan and the European Union. They seem to think also for all the others, and emphasized China cares only about its interests. Perhaps active participation in Davos-2011 – attempt of China in the eyes of the public to join the circle of Trustees of the planet.
The Russian delegation at the forum clearly demonstrated to the world that in our country still do not create a normal investment environment. There is no system. Everything can be solved manually operated and depends on the interests of senior officials and tractability of foreign investors. To satisfy the ambitions of these 2 groups with taxpayers ' money can be created in another sovereign Fund.
The forum stated that Russia is interested in foreign investment. Meanwhile, the Russian capital continues to leave his own country. In article16 for this reason it is written: "... in the background, to put it mildly, weak investments in the shelf and East Siberia, we intend to invest considerable sums in the oil industry, for example, in Venezuela... the projects all the more dashing. Here, for example, the idea to Finance the construction of transmission lines from Central African Republic to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Really, do networks in the suburbs – too small somehow."
At the world economic forum Dmitry Medvedev in 10 paragraphs, spoke about new opportunities offered by the modernization of the Russian economy. The number 10 is a good, round, easy to read. Therefore, we will also stop at 10 comments.
On the significance of the 41st world economic forum can be judged by how he responded to the major financial markets. These data are presented in Fig. 4-8.
The graphs show that the world economic forum did not exert any significant influence on the values of the main stock indices and currency exchange rates. In other words, the financial world almost did not notice the 41st economic forum in Davos. Slight decline in stock indices in combination with the increase of the dollar in late January – is not a reaction to the world forum and at the events in Egypt. A small growth of the Russian stock indexes at the end of January, most likely due to not global, but purely corporate issues – possible upcoming merger of RTS and MICEX.
Otherwise we did not expect: based on the paper dollar is not real world economy produces around the world, fake politicians, fake businessmen, fake financiers, fake managers, fake nanotechnology, fake OOO "Baikal", "Prana" and not even a real failure of intelligence. Real world economic forums.
List of sources used
- Granik I. "Dmitry Medvedev raised Russia in 10 points" (the forum participants in Davos listened to the President of the Russian Federation" // "Kommersant" № 13(4554) from 27.01.2011
- Chechel A., Sterkin F. Looked into the future" / / Vedomosti № 15(2781), dated 31.01.2011
- Kravchenko E., Seyranian So "Weak freeze" / / Vedomosti № 13(2779) from 27.01.2011
- The disappearance of the Euro will lead to the fall of Europe – Angela Merkel – http://www.audit-it.ru/news/finance/289744.html
- France asks for Britain's help in rescuing the Eurohttp://top.rbc.ru/economics/13/01/2011/526882.shtml
- "Editorial: a Foundation in the bag" / / Vedomosti №14(2780) dated 28.01.2011
- Dmitry Medvedev: Russia will divide risks with foreign investors http://top.rbc.ru/economics/26/01/2011/534097.shtml
- "Investors invited to Russia Cossack choir" (as in Davos demonstrated the attractiveness of modernization" // "Kommersant" № 15/P(4556) from 31.01.2011
- "Editorial: Who are these Russian?" // "Vedomosti" №15(2781), dated 31.01.2011
- The business leaders about the Davos speech Medvedev: "Several of the businessmen got up and left" – http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2011/01/28/focus/562949979616733
- Kharatyan K. "person of week: Igor Shuvalov" / / Vedomosti №15(2781), dated 31.01.2011
- Myazina E., E. Ossetian "Secret housewife" / / Vedomosti №135(2653) dated 23.07.2010
- Overchenko M. Asker-zade N., T. Dzyadko "Upgrade reality" / / Vedomosti № 12(2778) from 26.01.2011,
- "Editorial: a New Trustee" / / Vedomosti № 12(2778) dated 26.01.2011
- Simonov K. "Environment: a Disease of globality" / / Vedomosti № 16(2782) from 1.02.2011,
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