Interview with Sergey Grinyaev news Agency "Today.ru"
Exclusive interview with the General Director of the Center for strategic ozerok and forecasts, doctor of technical Sciences Sergei Grinyaev.
— Sergey Nikolaevich, the senior Executive of the Russian state that the peak of the crisis is found. What to expect the Russians, what to prepare? What is the forecast for the development of the situation in General?
— First, we believe that the word crisis should be used in quotation marks. In reality, this "crisis" is aimed at solving the problems of U.S. debt, primarily foreign, amounting to more than $13 trillion.
According to experts of the Institute of stock market development, the situation with the modern crisis reminiscent of the 80-ies. Then by manipulating oil prices and the dollar, the Americans managed to solve several strategic problems in the first place — to destroy the USSR. In 2008 as in 1980, there was a sharp rise in oil prices, which enabled US to make cost-effective drilling and commissioning of new oil wells. In 1980-1985s the increased supply of oil has lowered global oil prices and contributed to the transfer of assets in dollars, the rate which by 1980 has increased dramatically. The same is happening now. Naturally, who managed the process, he was able to prepare in advance to relevant events and to win on such organized "crisis."
Today is pegged to oil the Soviet Union, but there are unfriendly to the U.S. oil-producing Venezuela and Iran. Another problem is excessive debt. If the situation is repeated as in the 80-ies, "crisis" can last for ten years. But on the other hand, low oil prices are beneficial to China — the most significant potential ally, rival of America. So the U.S. will try not to give him a long-term advantage, to quickly turn this "crisis" especially since he has a serious negative impact on the rest of the world.
Comparing different options, we estimate the duration of this stage of "crisis" in 3-5 years. Of course, if the situation does not spin out of control the fed, and they will have to urgently declare a default on $ and switch to fallback, for example, the introduction of the currency of the North American continent type Amero.
Russians should prepare for the deterioration of the situation on the labour market (rising unemployment, reduced real wages and delays), the increase of tariffs, social problems in the regions, problems with Bank loans, the protest activity. Much, as always in Russia, will be determined by the behavior of the state, the presence of the residues of the instinct of self-preservation. If you are still, as in previous years, from the country under the guise of formation of foreign exchange reserves and sovereign funds will be exported hundreds of billion $, high-ranking officials to actively participate in the redistribution of property, medium and small — to continue to Rob people and political parties to impose their very controversial position to the regions, the situation may become more dramatic and unpredictable.
— The continued drop in oil prices, is there a lower pain threshold that may turn out to Russia's disaster? What you need to do to prevent this scenario?
— Most likely, oil prices in the coming years will be in the range of $30-70 per barrel. OPEC, although largely managed from the USA, won't be able to refuse the demand. Otherwise, the organization will simply cease to exist. Therefore, by reducing the supply of oil prices rises slightly.
But after a few years due to the reduction of explored reserves of easy oil oil prices may rise above $100/barrel and even to hit record highs in 2008
About the "pain" threshold. From lower projected oil prices from $95 to $41/barrel, the Federal budget lost 56,16% of revenues, or 4.2 trillion. RUB If average annual oil prices will drop to $20/barrel, the budget will lose another 2 billion rubles In the first place, it will affect social programs and national defense.
What you need to do? First, to start, lastly, in a businesslike way to treat their oil reserves, not from corporate, and national interests, to increase the degree of extraction of oil at least to the level of the former USSR. To make the long-suffering law "On subsoil". Perhaps to consider the development of oil reserves, although this measure will allow to stabilize prices only in the short term (under 2 months). It's time to stop just talk and nothing of substance to do in refining capacity already worn out at 75-80%. By the way — good investment opportunity, this way you can direct the dollars rather than invest them in the American economy.
I, as a specialist of stock trading, also close the output path of oil on the market. It's time to stop, to put it mildly, strange trade in non-deliverable futures while physical delivery continues to be the old fashioned way — on separate contracts in each region. Need to get oil to the stock exchange, to give it a real fair price. Then, maybe, we will not lose $2-4 for every barrel because of the difference of prices of domestic and foreign Urals Brent.
— The relation between the ruble/dollar and ruble/Euro looks unpredictable. What are the chances of the USA introduction of the new currency Amero? How realistic is the proposal of the head of the Republic of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev to visit Russia, Kazakhstan and several countries in the new currency — Evraz?
— In December 2008, the Institute of stock market to forecast the exchange rate of $/RUB and €/RUB at the end of 2009 At the rate of $ it amounted to 30.5-31 rbl. the basis of the forecast was the assumption about the degree of competitiveness of the Russian economy at the level of prosperous 2007 But now in government forecasts of the rate of $ is 35,1 rbl. that is, the government has decided not only to win back the situation prior to 2007, but also to make the margin of competitiveness, roughly corresponding to 1999 and 2000. We are not sure what the right thing to do. Can appear big problems with the import. And currently imports almost everything, even medicines and agricultural products. For a short time, private production will not develop (it is known that "grow" competent farmer, you want generation).
Course € by the end of the year will be determined by the exchange rate $ exchange rate and €/$ on global currency markets. Most likely, by 2010, € will restore the lost positions (more precisely, the US will allow him to do so) at the level of 1.3-1.4 $/€. These predictions relate to the case, when the $ will be developed under the complete control of the fed. If this does not happen, it is possible the transition to the new currency Amero type with further greater problems for the world. It is clear that as a result, the credibility of the U.S. financial system will be permanently lost. Therefore, this project will be implemented in extreme cases. In the interim it is possible to transfer part of the dollar assets of other countries in a Better way, probably with deferred payments. However, this option could be implemented in the following steps, man-made "crisis", when you begin to run out of real oil resource.
Proposal N. Nazarbayev is very important. This is one of the real and logical ways of modernization of the world financial system. Indeed, if country a is seeking to import goods and services from another country, it is natural that it should accumulate the currency of this country, which is becoming redundant. And Vice versa. Everything becomes very simple and clear. In the presence of at least several conditions. First, the establishment of market exchange rates to exclude the Central Banks. Their job is not a commercial operation, and the unconditional fulfillment of monetary channels, while minimizing inflation. Now the Central Banks of some countries are agents of the IMF position, i.e. essentially by the fed.
Secondly, the currencies of countries that claim the status of reserve, should be tied to real, not virtual assets. For example, to gold, trash, metals, oil, etc. Otherwise, sooner and later, they will be blurred in other foreign currencies.
And, thirdly, the prices are all without exception actual underlying assets must be installed on the currency markets — global or regional.
Naturally, with this approach, nothing prevents to establish some kind of common currency for several countries of the region, such as Evraz. From this consolidation the sustainability of the common currency will only increase.
Most likely, the development of the world financial system will go according to this variant, since 2 April at the G20 summit anything new will not be offered. Control of rating agencies, hedge funds, improvement of standards of activity of financial organizations is all imitation activity, half-measures, as the saying goes — wrestling with mold, not damp. Printing machine, emitting around the world is not secured by real assets the dollars the fed off in the near future is not going to.
It should be specially noted that the introduction of new regional currencies may be associated with increased military danger. USA such willfulness does not forgive. Remember Yugoslavia after the introduction of the €, South Ossetia after Dmitry Medvedev announced plans of using rouble as a regional currency. Finally, remember the situation in the Persian Gulf (estimated regional currency — the Gulf Dinar), which led to big problems of Iraq and Iran. All sanctions under the pretext of promoting democracy in its American sense.
A natural question arises: do Russian forces for military deterrence of a possible aggression? Especially after the next phase of the so-called "military reform" actually destroys the remains of the most capable Russian military units?
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