The mistakes of the authorities on the background of cheap oil – and collapsed the economy. The Minister of economic development Alexey Ulyukaev gave an interview to the newspaper "Vedomosti". Here is his main theses.
Russia is experiencing three crises at once, and two of them are connected with its internal problems.
- Now we have the combination of three crises. The first crisis is structural: the structure of the economy is such that it reproduces on an enlarged scale costs. Is the economy growing costs: tariffs of natural monopolies, whether the ratio of wages to productivity, whether regulatory, transaction costs, whether the costs of funding in the credit market. All costs are constantly growing, and their growth exceeds a multiple of economic growth. The second crisis is part of a normal business cycle, which is associated with restrictions in demand — both internal and external. And the third is a geopolitical crisis with the mechanism of sanctions, countersanctions.
THEMSELVES TO BLAME
The speaker is not inclined to think that Russia was the innocent victim of circumstances. The main fault lies with the authorities:
- Probably, we are caught in a perfect storm — and, this is probably no accident. Because in a sense, this storm we are prepared. In terms of structural crisis is the result of neorepublicans economy and everything that we did. Did not reduce the macroeconomic costs and that the costs and the pension system, and social sphere, which means now additional commitments to Fund of social insurance, medical insurance. Our actions this year to abolish the threshold [of salaries, contributions] in the HIF is in fact an additional tax on business, and it stems from the fact that the Fund deficit, and it is the result of adoratione. The same applies to the tariffs of natural monopolies and, most importantly, regulatory pressure. 35% of the costs of Russian enterprises is the transaction costs, the price of regulation. That's what we did with their hands. It's like "Chronicle of a death foretold" Marquez — Cronica crisis: we choose every time, making any movement, prepared the crisis. What happened was a combination of three crises together is a coincidence, but the fact that the base has been prepared, is regularity.
BAD – IT'S A LONG TIME
At the same time mistakes and miscalculations of power in Russia "shot" right now because the world in General, immersed in stagnation. And it's a long time. Before the error could mask a good external conjuncture, not anymore.
- I'm still in 2009 said that what is happening in the global economy is the transition to a new normality that high growth rates will be no more — neither the world, nor the Russian, too. Let's see how the predictions are changing all the time analysts expect that the global economy will grow more energetic, then quarter after quarter reduced forecasts, and the next year again, expect vigorous growth and again reduced forecasts. The idea of normality does not get vaccinated, everyone is waiting for some rebounds. No bounces. The growth rate of the world economy will be significantly lower than it was before.
SANCTIONS ARE FOR A LONG TIME
Earlier, Ulyukayev said that sanctions will soon be overturned, but he now admits his mistake. Russia will still have to be "Iran and North Korea" of the civilized world.
- Sanctions — the following matrix, that is we impose: it seems that this is also a very long time. I was a bad forecaster when he suggested that the sanctions do not impose or will impose for a short while. After the U.S. Congress passed a bill ("Act on support for freedom of Ukraine", involving additional sanctions against Gazprom and "Rosoboronexport". — "Vedomosti"), as will be the amendment of Jackson — Vanik: neither Jackson nor Vanik, and 40 years history continued. When is American law, then it is very difficult to change — it seems for decades. The problem may be material, may be intangible — just a threat, but she will be with us for a very long time.
THERE IS NO PLAN
The authorities are already confused, so they have a plan to save the economy or not. The speaker explains, spontaneous plans, but they are not too well thought out, and may not produce the desired effect.
- A meaningful action is an action for which someone might pay, but it will change the situation. We must change the situation on the chess Board, not only the movement of the spiral down, repeating and repeating how were the figures before. That's the kind of plans a lot, it's all reactive plans. A serious plan that would have changed the device, we still were not. Although we have a lot of plans associated with import substitution, with priority projects — and it's all useful work, but this tactic response. Need a strategic plan.
THE BUSINESS DOES NOT BELIEVE
The situation on the currency market easiest way due to a total distrust of business and authority. The speaker blames the authorities again.
Business knows what we are looking for some tricks. Here, for example, said sales tax will, instead, have introduced municipal fees, which is more harmful. The cure was worse than the disease. Well, then uzhali, made the cure not be harmful, but nevertheless — spoons were found, and sediment remained. Distrust remained. And the President said not only tax rates, and tax conditions [should change], i.e., new taxes, and new types of administration under it to be covered. And the business thinks they'll still come up with something. For example, as threshold value [contributions to] the HIF: we have not changed the basic conditions have changed or how to count?
THE OIL WILL RISE FURTHER
The speaker sees the only hope in the growth of oil. As she plummeted, just as sharp and more expensive.
- Any sharp decline is the probability of the subsequent sharp increase. And Vice versa. Perhaps soon we will see completely different pricing parameters, and after that and course. It will be very beneficial for the economy and for the budget of households, which is more important. Secondly, there is a set of measures that improve the business environment: moratorium on the deteriorating fiscal conditions, the limiting audits, project financing — all should work.
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