Russian macroeconomic system similar to the patient with myocardial infarction, said the Russian presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev, speaking Tuesday at a forum "the Trap "new normality" (the term used to denote low growth in the post-crisis period), which takes place at Financial University in Moscow.
Commenting on the theme of the forum, Glazyev noted that he sees this "trap" is nothing new. "We are in this trap are from 1992, we began to implement the doctrine of market capitalism, widely known as the "doctrine of the Washington consensus," he said.
Glazyev noted that the Central Bank for two years conducts a tight monetary policy and withdrew from the economy of about 5 trillion rubles, the Reduction in real money supply will continue in the future, he said. In this case, to achieve lower inflation and a rise in investment activity, according to presidential adviser, will be impossible.
The entire world is going the other way — through a policy of quantitative easing, including negative interest rates, said Glazyev. "It's not because they are stupid and we are smart. The whole thing Vice versa. They are not dogma, and the dogma we. They are realists, they understand that the economy needs new money, new loans in order to ramp up production of the new technology plan," said Advisor to the President, adding that these countries understand the need to reduce risks, thereby helping the business to innovate. Entrepreneurs in other countries have no problems with credits, Glazyev added.
In Russia, however, insist that a strict policy will help to reduce inflation, however, this prevents a free exchange rate — the volatility of the national currency no country in the world, said Glazyev. "Our macroeconomic system is like a patient with myocardial infarction", — he said.
According to Glazyev, Russia will remain in the "trap", as the Central Bank offered to go to the Deposit auctions and bid to bring him the key. "What does that mean? The Central Bank instead of giving loans, is now going to raise money and freeze them in their Deposit accounts," he said. That is, "to impose a kind of penalty for lending the greater part of the industries, where profitability does not allow you to borrow at a rate equal to the key," concluded the eye. And commercial banks will be able "to do nothing" and consistently receive "a good percentage", giving money of the Central Bank, he said.
In the result, the Russian regulator "will be the only one in the world who, instead of issuing money into the economy, will pick up the money, encouraging banks not to invest in the real sector", warned Glazyev. To do this, the Central Bank will be at the expense of the budget, since its profit comes into the coffers, and with this approach it will be close to zero and even turn into a loss, said the Advisor to the President. "This means that the prize lazy to commercial banks who do not want to engage in lending to the real sector, we will pay for by printing money," concluded the eye, noting that the government opposes emissions.
As examples of the eye has led China and Vietnam, which have begun the transition to a market economy in Russia a similar situation, but held "directly opposing the policy dogma of the Washington consensus and the International monetary Fund." This allowed them to become a leader in terms of growth over the past 25 years, he said.
Saying Glazyev on the forum decided to meet the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. He noted that negative interest rates apply in countries where there is deflation, whereas in Russia recorded the highest growth of prices. "Now lower the inflation rate will decline", — said Siluanov.
Secondly, directed lending, which said eyes, means "manual configuration", which is contrary to the market approach, the head of the Ministry of Finance.
The withdrawal of liquidity from the market by the Central Bank, according to siluanova, it is quite logical. "Who provides the liquidity? The Ministry of Finance now provides liquidity because we spend 2 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund. It's the same issue essentially," — said he, stressing that monetary policy must be approached carefully.
The Finance Minister added that he did not know about the "Washington consensus," which several times in his speech mentioned the eye. "But I know that in Washington, the fed [Federal reserve system. — RBC] is going to raise rates," he said.
Reasoning of the Ministry of Finance correspond to the situation of economic equilibrium to which Russia is now far parried Siluanov eyes.
Later on Tuesday the statements of Glazyev said the press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, reports RBC. "Glazyev expressed his personal point of view. We do not share", — said Peskov told reporters.
"It is impossible to grow endlessly"
In his speech before the speech Glazyev Anton Siluanov also said that China in recent years has grown largely at the expense of Treasury bonds. "So grow indefinitely is impossible", — said the Minister of Finance, stressing that the infrastructure, which heavily invested in China, unclaimed. The growth rates of fast growing countries slow down, and the quality of growth is reduced, he said.
The Russian authorities proposed to increase budget expenditures, but in front of a bad case of Brazil, where the difficult economic situation began to fight for income and the index of wages, the Minister continued. But the budget deficit in the country reached 10% of GDP, Siluanov said, and now is the question of debt sustainability in Brazil. In Russia, you can dramatically increase your costs, but it will ensure the growth of not more than a year, after which you will need even more to increase the deficit, explained the Finance Minister. This will lead to the need either to raise taxes or increase the deficit and to withdraw resources from the economy, he warned.
Anton Feinberg, Polina Khimshiashvili
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