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About problems and prospects of development of the Russian stock market in crisis of the world financial system
Material posted: -Publication date: 27-04-2009

The development of the economic situation in Russia under the influence of negative external economic factors has shown that created and improved in recent years, the economic model was not able to ensure the economic security of the country in conditions of a sharp aggravation of contradictions in the global financial system.

According to estimates, the current financial and economic crisis managed by global financial elites. Its main objective is to preserve the dominance of the current elite, to lay the foundations of a new model of global Finance in the face of global transformations: forthcoming in the near future the depletion of explored reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials; deep climate change leading to the transformation of geopolitical space; a significant change in migration flows of the population of the planet; the emergence of breakthrough technologies in the industry, can dramatically change the direction and pace of human development. In fact, before the organizers of the current crisis are the same problems that were previously solved by military force during the First and Second world wars. In other words, today is the third world war and it is conducted by means of economic pressure, blackmail, speculation and bribery. As a result of the geoeconomic pattern of the world is fundamentally changing the needs and related interests of world powers.

In these circumstances, the question arises about the possibility and feasibility of preservation of national fiscal sovereignty of the country, its economic security. The analysis shows that there are three main options for further development.

First, you can accept the situation in the global financial system as a given and try to build a strategy of your own development as a marketing strategy to gain greater market share in financial services. In this case we have to operate in a legal and technology space, is initially formed without the participation of Russia. In this case you will need to focus on ensuring competitive conditions of global capital in Russia. However, the consequence of this position will be the loss of sovereignty of national financial markets, the continued domination of domination of foreign currency in the financial flows of the country and the impossibility of reviving the national currency. The consequence of this position will be the continuation of the process of integration of Russian economy into the world through her tight specialization within such global organizations as the WTO, which is also the element of the current global financial and economic system. The result — the Russian economy will never be able to change your "commodity" status, as in the global division of labour "high-tech" niches are already occupied by others. As shown by the results of the latest G20 summit — this is the path that repurposed the development of Russia.

The second way is the participation of Russia in one of today's emerging regional monetary and financial systems. Such regional systems are today, the project "Euro", in the future, the implementation of the project "Golden yuan" in the region East and South-East Asia, the project "Dinar Gulf" the Gulf countries, the project of a unified South American currency, and, finally, North American project — the "Amero". In many ways, this path was similar, although in the conditions of formation of regional alliances, Russia has a better chance to bargain for more favorable terms as a supplier of hydrocarbons.

The third way — the formation and development in Russia of an independent national financial center. This is only true in the current environment path. The basis in this case should be developing in Russia, the prices of Russian export of strategic raw materials. And pricing should be carried out only in national currency — rubles.

In conditions, when the old stereotypes are crumbling, many species ("Pacific harbour", "tax haven", etc.) financial centers lose their value, as they are largely an attribute of the current monetary and financial system. As real centres of attraction will remain the only real centres of production and or transport nodes. It is to this class and is part of Moscow, the geographical position which allows it to act as nodal point of trade, transport, migration and other routes between Europe and Asia. In addition to this, in the medium term as a result of global warming, will significantly increase the significance of Russia's Northern regions, activation of the processes of Arctic development that will become an additional development in the role of Moscow as a transportation hub not only "West-East" and "North-South".

It is the development projects of transport corridors, together with the supply of Russian raw materials for export for roubles should become a basis of strategy of development of Moscow as a national financial center.

Of course, the choice of this direction of development of the Russian economy lead to the aggravation of severe competition on the world stage. Significantly increase the likelihood of implementation of a number of threats of economic safety of the country, in particular, will be taken a number of measures aimed at the destabilization of the ruble. Aggravated the problems of relations of Russian business with foreign partners. Will begin the process of "fermentation" in the national elites of the CIS countries with the purpose to sabotage the promotion of Russian businesses and block the transit of Russian goods and raw materials on the world market.

The rapid development and the deepening crisis in the country showed the high importance of stock market instruments in ensuring stability of the financial system of the country as a whole. With the stock market, as the most dynamic segment of the financial market of the country that started the current crisis. In many ways out of the crisis will be associated with the stabilization of the situation on him.

The current situation in the industry does not allow the Russian leadership to use the stock market as an effective tool for stabilizing the situation in the economy of the country. As a result, the Russian stock market in the conditions of the financial and economic crisis has not become an effective instrument in the hands of the government. It all came down to periodically stop trading on stock exchanges that only added to the nervousness of the Russian and foreign investors. Frequent stops trading during the crisis led to the outflow of the already small liquidity of the Russian market to the markets of UK and Germany.

Assessing the situation on the Russian stock market in the period of development of the crisis and, taking into account the lack of effect of actions of regulators, it can be assumed that in the near future the Russian stock market will come under the influence of worldwide stock exchange centres, which dramatically negative impact on the sovereignty of the country's economy as a whole.

To avoid this, urgent action is needed.

Thus, in the conditions of crisis it is necessary to ensure the consolidation of liquidity (both currency, and rouble) on the same trading platform, eliminating competition among Russian stock exchanges. The merger will combine their clearing houses and depositories, which will significantly improve resilience and reduce cost of operations on the stock market. The Association of stock exchange Depositary will finally solve the problem of the creation of Russia's Central Depository, which in itself will significantly improve Russia's investment image.

In the framework of the joint exchange is extremely important to create and develop commodity direction. First of all, to create a market for Russian strategic raw materials.

Russian raw materials on the world market must be sold for rubles, and the price of it should be formed in Russia. And here the involvement of the state should be manifested in the provision of government guarantees and the increase in the capitalization of the settlement infrastructure for the creation of conditions adequate to the current unstable situation on the market.

In the complicated crisis conditions significantly increases the role of the state as Supervisory and regulatory authority. Therefore, government involvement in the stabilization of the stock market should be reflected in the strengthening of control functions for state funds aimed at support of the market. No doubt the fact that to provide reliable control over the circulation more efficiently in the presence of one of modern trading platforms.

Public participation in the process of modernization of infrastructure of the stock market should be aimed not so much on targeted support of market participants "live" money, but rather on the provision of state guarantees and increase the capitalization of the elements of the exchange infrastructure. The arrival of the state on the stock market not as a player in the face of state-owned banks, and as a guarantor of stability, will enable to considerably reduce the risks when placing in stock market instruments funding of pension system, means the system of mortgage crediting, etc.

It is also crucial to create conditions that would allow a small number of transactions in the market to manipulate the benchmark index of Russia — RTS index.

The merger of the holding is registered in strategy of development of the financial market up to 2020, submitted to the FFMS last fall. However, the document does not specify the goals and objectives of creating such a holding. Moreover, in current Russian conditions, taking into account different forms of ownership Russian stock exchanges and different views of their shareholders on the merger, consolidation process "from above" risks to take a long time, and in unstable conditions of the crisis the consolidation process with the participation of two leading stock exchanges of the country may lead to paralysis of the national stock market.

In these conditions, the merger must begin with the unification of their technology platforms and rules of the organization bidding. Exchanges must begin to operate as a single entity, retaining its current ownership, and only later it makes sense to talk about the completion of the merger. In our opinion the merger should begin "from below". Estimates show that when there is an agreed position of the technical work on the unification of procedures for operation of exchanges can be completed within four to six months.

Thus, we can conclude that what is happening in the global financial system processes demonstrated the leading role of the stock market in the origin and development of the crisis. The crisis has shown its great significance in solving problems of economic security of the state. Underestimation of the role and importance of the stock market resulted in significant financial losses for the state, reducing the attractiveness of investment and outflow of foreign investments from the country.

The early adoption of agreed with all interested parties about the technological Association of the largest Russian stock exchanges and the creation on their basis of a powerful prototype of a single national exchange will contribute to the strengthening of the financial system and the revitalization of its participants, which ultimately will provide the basis for exiting the current financial and economic crisis and the formation of the future in Russia, an independent international financial centre.

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