As analysts estimated the joint credit Bureau (OKB), July 1, from 47 million borrowers with open loans over 15% did not make loan payments at least 90 or even more days. To date, the number of borrowers has reached the 7,20 million, whereas a year ago there were of 7.16 million people, or 15.8% of the total number of debtors with open accounts.
Aggregate outstanding debt of these citizens to creditors (including fines and penalties) amounted to 1.43 trillion rubles That is an average of each borrower owes the Bank almost 200 thousand rubles. As noted, the largest share of borrowers with overdue payments in Karachay-Cherkessia (25.5 per cent), Tyva (25.2 per cent), Kabardino-Balkar Republic (25,1%), Buryatia (23.8%) and Khakassia (22,1%).
Thus, the greatest average amount of loan are among Moscow residents (460 thousand rubles) and Ingushetia (457 thousand rubles), Moscow region (355 thousand rubles.), Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (355 thousand rubles) and St. Petersburg (296 thousand rubles). Least owe the banks Sevastopol residents (29 thousand rubles), the Altai Republic (89 thousand rbl.) and Chechnya (105 thousand roubles).
And it is unlikely that these loans will be repaid, experts doubt. "No wonder the loans overdue by 90+ is called non. This segment of credit has an extremely low return borrowers to the normal payment discipline", – told "NEZAVISIMAYA Gazeta" Deputy Director of the Bureau Nicholas butchers. So, according to the company, only 3% of these borrowers subsequently return to the normal schedule of payments. "A small percentage of them charge a credit institution directly or through collectors. And most of the defaults on loans with overdue payment of 90+ will not return. Banks will write off these debts from the balance or sell collection agencies", – the expert believes. "Practice shows that the majority of loans overdue more than 90 days almost not returned", – agrees the General Director of company "money Fanny" Alexander Shustov. According to statistics, no more than 5-10% of borrowers with overdue payments more than 90 days, return to the payment schedule, the Director of the Department of Rosgosstrakh Bank Alexander Chernov. "Therefore, according to the recommendations, the credit overdue more than 90 days is recognized default or irrevocable," he recalls.
However, according to experts, in the last two years the situation with overdue debts have stabilized. "Over the last few years banks have restricted lending to the mass and become more attentive to the evaluation of potential borrowers, thus reducing the rate of growth of overdue debts. In the near future, the number of loans with overdue payment of 90+ are likely to continue to increase, but at a gentle pace," – said Myasnikov. However, if the income decline continues, we will see a sharp wave of growth in non-performing loans, believes Deputy Chairman of Loko Bank Andrey lyushin. "As soon as the share of payments on loans starts to exceed more than 40% of revenues, customers stop paying. This is supported by the fact that increasing the share of food in total expenditure of the population," he says.
"I would not say that the situation is improving, does not agree, the financial Ombudsman Pavel Medvedev. – If you look at the money, then Yes, you can see some improvement. For example, a recovery in the mortgage sector. If you look at the borrowers situation is rather getting worse." In particular, according to Medvedev, if the first reduced the number of debtors who owe one Bank, it is now markedly reducing the number of those who need only banks. "That is, they in addition to Bank loans, people pay more and microloans," says the Ombudsman. The debt load of citizens is increasing. "For example, one of the indebted groups – the police. And if earlier they were very careful in payments, it now seems, they are not as neat" – says the expert.
Similar in overdue debt issued in National Bureau of credit histories. According to their findings, the share of overdue loans remained at 16%, and problems with payment experiences from 5 to 6.5 million people. At the same time half of them just are no financial possibilities to pay the loan (see "NG" from 31.05.17).
Note, a much more optimistic data last week reported by the Federal bailiff service (FSSP). According to them, hopeless, and so newdiscovery admits only 11% of the debts of Russians on the credits. "Only 11% or 488 thousand of the total number of enforcement proceedings... completed in connection with impossibility of collecting of debts under the loan," – drive "Prime" statement by the FSSP. Believed to be the reason for the cessation of production can be a lack of any property of the debtor and inability to determine his whereabouts.
As a whole, the Department is now more than 4.3 million Executive manufactures about collecting of overdue loans in the amount of 2.6 trillion rubles And 1.4 million of them filed this year. Thus, the Federal bailiff service reported that it is impossible to recover the amount of 247 billion rubles.
Such reports office appeared immediately after the publication in the media about the possible volume of write-offs of debts by bailiffs. In particular, it was reported that over the last couple of years, the bailiffs have closed without the recovery of several million plants. In the press expected that this year the volume of write-offs may reach 1 trillion rubles.
However, with the volume of write-offs in the FSSP is not so obvious. For example, according to the report of the Agency on results of activity in 2016 to 2015 in just FSSP was completed and terminated more than 43 million of the Executive production, while 25 million were actually executed, and 11.3 million – over with the act about impossibility of collecting. The trend continued in 2016. The Ministry completed more than 53 million, but 31 million was actually executed, and 14.3 million was completed in connection with the inability of foreclosure. Note, the report itself does not specify, what volume of cases fell into foreclosure on credit debt, and some alimony. However, it is clarified that out of 31 million of completed cases 17.4 million accounted for the recovery of fines.
And, according to some experts, "NG", it is the debt relief would be one way to stimulate the domestic economy. "Moreover, banks have an opportunity to dissolve the impressive reserves established under such toxic loans," – said the lyushin, believing that in the near future debt relief to the population is inevitable.
"Debt relief can never be a way to revive the economy, because it only encourages a different kind of fraud, which creates an imbalance in the banking system", – argues the head of the Directorate of RosEvroBank Dmitry Falaleev. "Debt relief is not a magic wand for the economy. A more effective mechanism is the simplification of judicial procedures related to overdue debt, or the liberalization of mechanisms for restructuring and refinancing debt" – suggests Chernov.
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