Dmitry Medvedev headed the ruling party is preparing the country for an alternative economic course. One of the main ideologists of this course becomes presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev. Yesterday the state Duma passed the widely announced parliamentary hearings on the new economic policy – "proposals to accelerate socio-economic development of Russia". United Russia proposed measures directly opposed to the policy of the government Dmitry Medvedev.
Deputies, in particular, offer a five-fold increase in the budget deficit sharply to reduce the tax burden and to spend for investments almost half of the gold reserves of the country for the next five years. In turn, Sergei Glazyev proposed to impose a tax on the export of capital.
A preliminary list of recommendations prepared by the ad hoc scientific Council of the party "United Russia". According to the results of the parliamentary hearings the Duma Committee on economic policy will consolidate all the proposals and will release the final version of the document will familiarize the government, Federal and regional agencies, business associations and leading scientists of the country.
The authors of the recommendations emphasize that they are based on announced by President Vladimir Putin's guidelines. So, according to them, the authorities now need to overcome the stagnation, stagflation and recession, accelerating economic growth to 3-4% annually in the period from 2015 to 2020 and to 5-6% per year in the period from 2020 to 2025. By 2025 Russia's GDP is expected to grow from the current 67 trillion to 100 trillion rubles in 2013 prices.
The main tool for economic acceleration "the transition to accelerated growth of investments into fixed capital". In the period 2015-2020 investment growth should be 8% per year, then 10% per year. The share of investments in GDP is expected to grow from 19% in 2014 to 30% in 2025.
The investment will go to technological re-equipment of enterprises, running high-tech industries, creation of developed infrastructure in the form of expressways and high-speed Railways, doubling by 2025 housing and social construction, the development of "knowledge economy", that is, on research and development, education, health care, information and biotechnology.
In the context of the sanctions restrictions the principal source of investment will be domestic resources – primarily Federal budget and the reserves of the country. The recommendations spelled out "transition to a moderate decit budget in the amount of up to 3% of GDP". It also about the need to spend foreign exchange reserves to the tempo 50 billion. per year for five years. Now in reserves accumulated 470 billion., in five years there will be about 200 billion. As the authors of the recommendations, this amount exceeds the gold and foreign currency reserves of the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and its enough for financial security of Russia.
"The economic mechanism of investment financing mainly stated by Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg international economic forum in 2014," according to the authors recommendations. This mechanism involves improving the availability of credit and reducing the tax burden on business.
Special breaks promised to small businessmen and companies, which will implement new technologies and effectively replace imports. One of the recommendations is to "establish a moratorium on increase of taxes and mandatory contributions the business and population". Moreover, for small businesses it is proposed to reduce in two times the amount of the paid contributions.
It is noteworthy that each of these recommendations is absolutely contrary to the decisions of the current government. This raises a logical question and not only about changing the economic course, but also about changing the personal composition of the government.
So, laid out for the next three years, the Federal budget assumes a deficit of no higher than 0.6% of GDP. The draft of the recommendations from the ruling party increased the deficit to 3% of GDP.
Another contradiction relates to tax policy. The current government, one way or another, raises taxes in the form of increased insurance premiums or the emergence of new regional fees. In Douma, on the other hand, offer multiple tax cuts – particularly for small businesses.
The piquancy of the situation is that in fact the ruling party headed by Dmitri Medvedev, now produces an alternative to the current government's economic course. Thus rejected even the most recent theses Medvedev. Just two days ago the Prime Minister announced the impossibility of constructing high-speed Railways will be build when "plenty of money". But the need for such construction expressly recorded in the list of recommendations of parliamentarians.
One of the main ideologists of the new policy that was discussed at parliamentary hearings, obviously, is presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev, who believes that the economy should "self-reliance". Yesterday Glazyev called and other measures to rescue the economy from stagnation. For example, he proposed to impose a tax on the export of capital with the following compensation for its import operations. Glazyev reminded that often the export of capital takes place through illegal schemes, and the country loses not only the capital, but also tax revenues. Grounds for concern Glazyev. The Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev admitted yesterday that capital outflow from Russia for the year may reach 120 billion dollars. While the official forecast for 2014 is $ 100 billion. the outflow of capital.
The respondents "NG" experts also drew attention to the divergence of the recommendations with the current economic course of the government. "The proposed mechanisms are clearly inconsistent with existing tax policy of the state, which is now focused primarily on search of reserves to increase budget revenues and does not preclude increasing the tax burden on businesses. This increase in load is not always a direct increase in rates. Often increasing the load goes through the change of the order of formation of tax base", – said the partner of FinExpertiza Nina Kozlova.
"Proposal for the expenditure of gold and foreign currency reserves will certainly cause many questions. As the transition to moderate-decit budget. In the long term in the event of a fall in oil prices such proposals may pose a threat to development," warns Deputy General Director of consulting company Heads Nikita Kulikov.
"One can only welcome the initiatives aimed at overcoming the recession. But while they are poorly consistent with recent attempts to introduce a sales tax or increase VAT. Now there is a confrontation between the defenders of two different models of economic development. The first model of hard budget constraints and control. Second – to stimulate business with low interest rates on loans and tax benefits," says financial analyst Lionstone Investment Services Yana Trubnikova. The expert notices that now the main problem is not so much in finding sources of funding, how the high risk that the allocated money will be spent on the projects.
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