The mankind had to wait even the whole century while, at last, we personally did not become witnesses of mortal convulsions of capitalism. Outwardly all looks while prosy. The capital world has entered into a phase of zero and negative interest rates. And it not any «time difficulties», and steady new quality of economy. Capitalism - such model at which the higher, an ultimate goal of participants of economic activities is the profit. In the form of the industrial or trading income, a loan interest. The profit provides a capital gain, it becomes, as the classic of Marxism, «the self-increasing cost» spoke. And so capital "self-increase" has ended. Its "decrease" has begun.
Kernel of capitalist model are banks with their loan interest. In bank sector it is possible to track unique metamorphoses of percent. Modern bank - the depozitno-credit organisation. It involves money resources on deposits under certain percent and gives out credits under percent. After financial crisis 2007−2009 in the world the mass phenomenon on decrease in depositary percent began to be observed. The tendency has come so far that in some countries and in some banks depositary percent (not only real, but also nominal) have left in a negative zone.
First of all, negative percent on deposits began to establish the central banks. The first it has made the Central Bank of Sweden. It was followed some more by the European Central Banks. In June of last year the European Central Bank (ETSB) has lowered the depositary rate with 0 to value a minus 0,10. Similar actions of the central banks spoke that the monetary authorities tried to overcome economic stagnation, to force commercial banks to finance economy, instead of to sit out in «silent depositary harbour».
After a while epidemic of negative interest rates under deposits began to grasp and private commercial banks. At first it were banks of Switzerland. For the sake of justice, it is necessary to recognise, as earlier some of them took money from clients for placing of money on deposits. It was the payment for "service" in confidentiality preservation. Very demanded "service", considering that to Switzerland money with very doubtful origin was flown down. Today the bank secrecy in Switzerland almost is completely liquidated. Therefore today negative deposit rates do not represent a payment for delicate "service" of bank to the client. They are dictated by economic conditions of bank business.
It is necessary to underline that the monetary authorities of Switzerland encourage the similar percentage policy of the banks since it constrains inflow of spare capitals to this country from all Europe. Financial and economic instability in the European union raises investment appeal of Switzerland (even in spite of the fact that the bank secrecy there is liquidated). But powerful inflow of money to Switzerland sharply raises a course of the Swiss franc, and it creates the big problems for national economy. In Switzerland there was a paradoxical situation when banks are protected from flow of clients by means of negative percent on deposits.
Yes, it is the Swiss specificity. But here in the next Germany a number of banks also declared negative depositary percent. As it is possible to explain it? - Negative percent on deposits - a compulsory measure as at banks incomes on active operations "have sharply given". Especially on the credit. For the present under credits negative interest rates is not has reached, but positive values have in certain cases decreased to 2−3 %. Money became almost free. And in some countries where small inflation takes place at least, real interest rates (the nominal rates corrected taking into account change of purchasing capacity of money) have left in a negative zone.
In this uneasy situation it is not favourable to banks to be engaged in the traditional depozitno-credit craft already. They leave on the financial markets, transferring the centre of gravity of the active operations from credits for investments. But under "investments" banal gamble with any financial tools actually disappear. However, and in the financial markets for speculators there come hard times. In Europe for last two-three years there was a considerable quantity of the state debt papers with negative percent. Speculators, of course, try to play and with such "cards", but this game is extremely unusual and does not bring fabulous profits. And losses happen even more often.
However, the phenomenon of zero and negative interest rates while basically is observed in the countries of "gold billion». There decrease in interest rates under deposits, credits and financial tools very much is promoted by the monetary authorities which pursue a policy of "quantitative softening». Better to say, the central banks have included "presses", continuously throwing in economy enormous quantities of money. There is "overproduction" of money. And at "overproduction" of any goods the price for it falls. Money in this sense an exception is not.
And here on periphery of world capitalism very strictly it is forbidden to central banks to be engaged in "quantitative softening». It is ordered to them to be engaged opposite - «quantitative toughening». Better to say, compression of monetary weight. Therefore on periphery of world capitalism interest rates remain (while) at high level. For world usurers of Uoll-strit, the London City and other banking centres of the country of periphery of world capitalism are "life buoy". Here they continue to feel as classical monetary capitalists. However, sooner or later epidemic of negative percent will reach and periphery of world capitalism. There are signs that has already reached.
In 2015 the capital has started to leave periphery of world capitalism in the countries of "gold billion». First of all, in the USA. According to the data of Institute of the international finance in III quarter 2015 investors have sold actives in developing countries for the sum of 40 billion dollars and have deduced them in a zone of "gold billion». It is the worst quarter indicator of outflow of the capital since 2008 of the Shark of capitalist business have picked fairly the countries of "the third world» and come back in the smooth waters. The newest polls of the companies of periphery of world capitalism as has informed us last issue TheEconomist, show that at more, than 20 % of the companies percentage payments exceed their incomes before payment of taxes.
According to other sources, in many countries of "the third world» pure profits (i.e. profits after payment of taxes) corporate sector are comparable to expenses on service of external debts. The corporate debt in developing countries has grown five times for last decade and today makes $18 bln. dollars, or more than 70 % of gross national product, marks the British magazine TheEconomist. How to explain this phenomenon of pure outflow of the capital from the countries of periphery of world capitalism? - Apparently, the base in the form of corporate profit for maintenance of high interest rates in this zone is promptly washed away.
Partly a phenomenon of movement of the capital in a zone of "gold billion», in smooth waters with zero or even negative interest rates can explain those, chtoepoha so-called "passional" capitalists has already passed. We deal with very strange capitalists who choose safety and endow profit. In due time the classic of Marxism wrote: «Provide 10 percent, and the capital will agree on any application, at 20 percent it becomes recovered, at 50 percent is positively ready to break to itself a neck, at 100 percent it tramples on all human laws, at 300 percent there is no such crime on which he would not risk, at least on pain of the gallows». These words belong not to Marx, and Thomas Joseph Danninu, the classic only quoted it. But anyway these words transferred spirit of capitalism very precisely.
Today's capitalism already other. In the beginning flowing godajakov Rothschild, the president and the basic shareholder of investment fund RIT CapitalPartners, has published the annual report on results of activity of fund in 2014 In it it recognised that the next years not capital increment, and its preservation will be a business overall objective. The sense of its statement is that: a pier, it is necessary to have hard time, and then we will return again to the habitual and favourite business (capital escalating).
I am afraid to disappoint Rothschild: return to the past will not be. Also I will recommend to re-read "Capital" in which the classic formulates the law - a tendency of rate of return to fall. All one and a half centuries the rate of return really went down, today it already at "plinth" level. The cumulative capital will not increase, as real growth of gross national product has already ended. Cruel time of "black repartition» capital rests will begin. The majority of the capitalists deprived of former "passionarity", refuges anywhere will search. Even in financial tools with negative percent.
In the middle of September has passed session of board of governors of the Federal reserve of the USA. All tensely waited for this session as on it the fatal question should be solved: to lift or not to lift discount rate FRS? In other words: to come back by times of classical capitalism with a loan interest or to prolong «percentage vacation»? The federal reserve has decided: «percentage vacation» to prolong. Officials FRS had to choose between "bad" and "absolutely bad". Judging by the accepted decision, "bad" they have counted preservation of the interest rate close to zero. And "absolutely bad" - its increase. For money will cease to be free, and it can enter the American economy into "corkscrew" with not predicted economic, social and political consequences.
The countries of periphery of world capitalism also have with relief sighed. For even the establishment of discount rate FRS at level of 1−2 % would become for them accident: mass flight of the capital in «the country promised», i.e. in financially-bank system of the USA would begin. We know a saying: «There is nothing more constant, than something time». Programs of "quantitative softening» in the USA (and later and in other countries of the West) have been started as "time". However to refuse them the West cannot any more. One of these days the Ministry of Finance declared that the interest rate on exchequer papers of the USA is established on a zero mark. This sign event, testifying that return by former capitalism any more will not be.
Classics of Marxism-Leninism said that in the course of capitalist accumulation rate of return and (a loan interest as the basic form of profit) will inevitably go down. And it will inevitably lead to "death" of capitalism. It is possible to agree with it. However, thus we will add that classics did not have not enough imagination to imagine that the loan interest can fall below zero. Negative interest rates prompt to us: capitalism has turned to a corpse. But thus, for some reason anybody does not have not enough boldness to fix the death fact.
Speaking about antagonistic contradictions of capitalism, classics did "an iron" conclusion that on change to capitalism the socialism will come. And here completely it is impossible to agree with it. No "iron" determinism in the history is present and cannot be. «Owners of money» realise that the capitalist model of economy existing during several centuries and a society of has got rid. And in «a planned order» prepare mankind for transition to other model where they could remain owners, but any more money, and the whole world as sets of natural resources, material productive forces and all people on a planet.
And the power over people should extend on their consciousness. Without understanding of these tectonic processes in world capitalism it is difficult to understand many today's events in the world: occurrence IGIL, war on Near and Middle East, «resettlement of the people» to Europe, "democratic revolution" in Ukraine, etc. All is elements of the huge project on transformation of the doomed capitalism in other social and economic formation which it is possible to name conditionally «a new slaveholding system». To resist to new slavery it is possible only in the event that you understand, in what plans present «owners of money» consist.
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