Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Economy and Finance / New technologies in the financial markets / Articles
IBM experts about the processes of transformation of the global stock market
Material posted: -Publication date: 14-08-2009

Interesting results gave the study reports on research published by the scientific center of IBM on one of their websites.

In particular, we have found out that long before the active phase of the current financial and economic crisis, for several pre-crisis years, experts of research centers of the American Corporation IBM has conducted a series of studies aimed at studying the main directions of transformation of the global stock market. Main objective of the research was to identify key factors that affect the behavior of global stock market, taking into account what is happening under the influence of the modern technological revolution changes in the global economy. The identification of such factors should enable, according to the experts at IBM, the leadership of American investment companies on the world stock market by advanced study and consideration in the strategy of development of fundamentally new trends that will have a fundamental impact on the stock market in the future.

In particular, the research by experts from IBM, it was found that in the next decade on the global exchange market is undergoing important changes, which will entail major changes in business investment companies, brokers and exchanges that will require all market participants a deep restructuring of their own activities.

It is characteristic that in recent years IBM research centers specialize in the execution of orders of the U.S. Administration on research in the development of new economic and socio-political theory of the new information society that is based on the network topological structure. The results of these studies should contribute to the awareness by the US administration the depth of what is happening in the world of socio-economic processes, and will allow us to react to changes.

Assessment of possible transformations experts associated primarily with significant changes in the factors of price formation in the stock market. It is expected that in the coming years will not only change the importance of existing factors, but there will be new and some will lose their value. All this will lead to the fact that the current strategies of the global stock markets will lose its current value.

Analysts said IBM, a substantial share of profit of investment companies has been obtained in recent years thanks to the access of companies to a unique insider information about the market participants. Meanwhile, key factors that will have a significant value on global stock market will be the availability of information about the market participant and the speed of transactions: analysts note that these factors in the future near to their limits - transparency can not exceed some limit at which everyone knows everything, and the transactions can not be made instant. This will lead to the fact that the current key growth factor - insider information - will lose their value.

However, according to experts, they must be the revision of the basic values, and insider information have come new factors in the formation of stock market prices. In the new conditions of the investment company will need to restructure the business in such a way as to focus not on faster and gain valuable insight and the possibility of a detailed and highly accurate forecasting of the situation on the stock market in the limited time of the transaction.

IBM analysts point out that the future of the stock market for high-precision forecasting systems, able to perform analysis of the situation in a split second, because in a split second and will go to fight in the coming years.

Experts also note that the fundamental challenge for market participants will be to create and improve their own methodology of analysis and forecasting of risks: the price of the stock market in the future will be formed mainly at the expense of effective risk management.

Today the stock market infrastructure is formed by the issuers, selling assets, brokers executing intermediary functions, the exchange and the investors who purchase the assets, but analysts say IBM, this model does not reflect the actual impact on the transaction process from a variety of different factors. This, according to experts, should lead to the emergence of new components of the model that allows to analyse and consider emerging risks. It is planned that in the coming years must develop new self-direction - management of risk in the stock market, which would entail the emergence of new players.

Experts also noted that, given the upcoming changes on world stock markets, the projected increase in activity of investment funds in emerging markets, primarily in Russia and China.

Thus, in our view, given the dynamics of developments in the transformation of the global stock market, the merger of the largest stock exchanges in the U.S. and Europe, as well as a series of crises and instability in the stock markets caused by the global funds, it can be assumed that U.S. analysts are activated transformation of the world financial system in conditions of high dynamics of its changes.

All this together suggests that, as in military policy, in financial-economic sphere are realized and tested in practice methods based on the use of methods, the so-called "controlled chaos", when to implement its own policies deliberately provoked and supported the status of long-term instability.

Testing of new working methods in the stock market with use of modern software tools for financial analysis will allow American experts continue to maintain leadership in global finances even in conditions of drastic change.

Tags: USA , Exchange , finances

RELATED MATERIALS: Economy and Finance