Today a lot written about the sensational 30-year gas contract between Russia and China, which became the largest transaction of this kind on the gas market. However, in our opinion, somewhat in the shadow of this event left a number of steps are key geopolitical players, which point to fundamental shifts and rebalancing of the entire global geo-economic system, which is based on the changes of "the oil factor" on "the gas factor".
Clear evidence of transition is, in particular that in recent months has increased the number of analytical developments in the environment of the American expert community related to the formulation of new guidelines by the American geostrategy. The main driver is the results of estimates and projections of the medium-term development of modern civilization and the consequent issues that are primarily related to the exhaustion of affordable oil and the need to move towards greater use of natural gas. Estimates were prepared by the leading expert organizations in the United States.
Build today new geostrategy of Washington, based on the US dominance in the energy market, a key objective will be to put the development of infrastructure of the gas market in Asia.
The experts stated that for several years the US has pursued a focused and balanced policy aimed at ensuring U.S. domination on the world gas market, just as the US did in the oil market. The interest in gas is quite understandable: easily accessible oil fields are almost exhausted today, and the future of the world economy today depends on gas.
To this end the United States conducted a range of research and development activities, which resulted in a commercial operation a number of technologies for gas production, which today gave the opportunity US to become one of the world leaders in the supply of gas.
According to experts, the US made a number of diplomatic and diplomatic about the steps that contributed to the worsening of relations between Russia and Ukraine in 2008-2010. The result of an exacerbation of steel, the so-called "gas war". The fact of instability of deliveries of gas to Europe became a significant incentive for many consumers of Russian gas in order to think about alternative gas supplies, and US here were willing to help.
They are ready to offer proprietary technologies of gas production, to invest in the transportation infrastructure of the liquefied gas, in order to form a new order on the gas market.
The most important step in these actions of Washington are plans to invest in the creation and development of new transmission infrastructure in Asia. This is, in particular, according to the experts, the Brookings institution, one of the leading analytical centers of the USA.
In particular, in some materials the Brookings Institute indicates that in the coming years, a key factor supporting development, will remain a factor of power. Despite the increase in high-tech sectors, their contribution to development will remain insignificant. Regardless of the development of other sectors of the economy, the supply of energy will remain a key objective of supporting economic growth.
A clear conclusion of the experts (despite the recognition of the importance of high-tech industries) is that a country that today will provide a control over the energy supply (exploration, production, sale and delivery to the consumer), the country and will determine the development of the world in the medium and long term.
The Foundation of the modern economy, established at the end of the Second world war, is oil, and oil will continue to be a vital basis for development in the twenty-first century. Access to oil will continue to shape the security environment of the coming decades. But the future global world order needs a much broader coverage of energy problems. First of all, this applies to intensive development of the gas industry and alternative energy sources.
Today the U.S. share as a consumer in the global energy market is reduced, while increasing the role of China, India and other countries developing their economies and, accordingly, actively require an influx of new energy. This shift and new threats – since the traditional safe oil already mastered, petroleum exploration today is focused on areas of high political and military risks, which significantly increases the cost of production and transportation resources. However, it is the changes give a new chance to restore the dominance of the United States.
American experts predict that in the coming years will normalize the situation in regions of the world, which today is unstable, but can be considered as sources of relatively cheap oil: South Sudan, Venezuela, Angola and other instability will allow you to save and relatively high oil prices, which, amid the deepening global economic crisis, there will be an additional incentive for reformatting the global energy market and enhance the share of natural gas.
By the US in recent years managed to build cost-effective infrastructure in the gas market (including through the use of shale gas) and today's challenge for Washington should be to ensure superiority of U.S. gas supplies on the world market.
In these conditions Washington today plans to be a leader in the formation of the infrastructure of the gas market, also how it shaped the oil market. Among the most significant projects distinguished:
- Modernization of the structure of the International energy Agency and its greater orientation on issues of gas industry.
- The formation of the exchange infrastructure in the gas market. The formation of the stock index development of the gas industry.
- Stimulation and active participation of American companies in investment projects of creation of infrastructure of gas transmission and distribution in South and South-East Asia. For the formation of new rules and infrastructure of the global energy market Washington plans to draw the mechanisms of the G20 group.
The success of the new American geostrategy will be provided if the USA succeeds in creating new rules on the gas market and to provide new transport routes of gas deliveries, eliminating from the market the main competitors in the face of Russia and Iran.The US sees the purpose of reviving the weakened linking Europe to Russian gas. In addition, Washington today is working to ensure the growth of gas consumption in China. This is achieved through the involvement of Beijing in international initiatives in the field of ecology and conservation climate – the Chinese economy today depends on coal, which has excessively high levels of environmental risk. USA ready for large-scale investments in gas transport infrastructure in Asia. Moreover, given the difficult geopolitical situation, the US plans to create the infrastructure so that to exclude the possibility of interception of control on the part of China to Beijing should only act as a gas consumer, with the ever-increasing needs. To this end a number of key elements to create an infrastructure of the USA plan to place in India, in South and South-East Asia.At the same time Washington will prevent the possibility of obtaining gas to Beijing from Central Asia.
- 02-05-2020Four of the Americans ' Outlook: what will happen to the world economy and the US economy
- 21-02-2020The phantom menace: the non-obvious consequences of the depletion of nature for the economy
- 24-07-2019Look at the future of business: five trends postremoval era
- 23-06-2019Industrial revolution 4.0: how the Internet of things is changing business and how to stay afloat