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Iran and shales collapsed oil prices
Material posted: Publication date: 09-02-2014

Facilitating the settlement of the conflict around the Iranian nuclear program, Russia is helping the return on the world market of energy resources one of its largest competitors.

Motorists can expect this year on the maintenance of relatively low gasoline prices and even further declines, say some German media, while pointing to Iran. Began easing of international sanctions against the country and the prospect of their complete withdrawal has spawned in Germany hopes that the global market will soon be flooded Iranian oil, which will cause a drop in oil prices.

Iranian tankers already in transit

The supporter of this scenario is, in particular, Helmut Buchman (Helmut Buchmann), industry analyst at German news Agency Oil Market Report. He is convinced that "supplies from Iran would substantially defuse the situation on the crude oil markets", which is after all, so not complaining about the lack of offers. "So I assume that the price of oil during the current year will fall to about $ 90 per barrel," - said the expert newspaper Die Welt. Therefore, he expects major energy source will become cheaper by about 15 percent.

The publication asked the question of how quickly Iran will technically be able to establish oil exports, and came to the conclusion that it will happen in no time. The fact that "it's been a few weeks in the World's oceans are filled to capacity with giant tankers, which now will start to ship on the beach his multibillion-dollar load," writes Die Welt.

The tanker, owned by state-owned shipping company under sanctions, served as Iran is deprived of the opportunity to sell their goods on the world market, additional oil storage tanks. Now 16 of these ships are already in transit, and another 10 are loaded on the anchor at the very entrance of the Persian Gulf, found the newspaper, interviewing Shipbrokers in Hamburg and London.

The markets await the EU's arms embargo

Thus, the delivery of millions of barrels customers after Iran since the beginning of February was allowed to sell crude oil to Turkey, China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, has become a matter of a few days or at least several weeks. Besides Iran, once again helped to Charter the tankers in Europe that Tehran is fundamentally important because a large proportion of the world tanker fleet is controlled by companies from Norway and Greece.

Hence promising for businesses and motorists in Germany, the title of the article in Die Welt: "the Iranian megadancer pour the oil global markets." However, the arguments and conclusions of the newspaper convince not all. "It's possible that these tankers will really deliver your goods in these countries. However, such volumes are able to exert only minimal influence on the price of crude oil," he said in an interview with the online edition of Focus - online commodity market analyst at Commerzbank Carsten Fritsch (Carsten Fritsch).

Serious declines he will only in the case of a radical resolution of the conflict over Iran's nuclear program. Negotiations should begin on February 18 and expected to be completed in may. If the markets feel, the expert noted that the case really goes to the lifting of most sanctions and, in particular, to the lifting of the embargo on the supply of Iranian oil to the EU, then "prices will be under pressure".

To what level will oil prices fall?

Another factor contributing to the decline in oil prices may, according to the analyst of Commerzbank, to be scheduled for the first half of the expansion of oil production in Libya. But at the Analytical center of Deutsche Bank (DB Research) indicate primarily on the U.S. and called the main reason for the expected slump in oil prices continuing in North America the rapid increase of shale oil production.

"We believe that this year oil prices such as European Brent and American WTI, about 10 percent decrease, compared with the average level of 2013. As a result, in Europe a barrel will pay somewhat less than $ 100, and in the U.S. - about 89 dollars", - said in an interview with DW, the energy expert, DB Research Josef Auer (Josef Auer).

Possible lifting of sanctions against Iran will give the predicted trend serious additional momentum, he said. In his opinion, from a purely technical point of view, the Iranian oil industry will not be easy to quickly recover fallen in recent years, the volume of production. Tehran has already stated that it intends to increase its daily production from the current 2.7 million barrels to 4 million.

Russia is facing a dilemma

So everything indicates that this year the market supply of oil will clearly exceed the demand. Which, as said Josef Auer, will be, despite the expected growth of the global economy, not so high as to cause an increase in energy prices.

In the case of the lifting of sanctions and the EU embargo, Iran would try to direct export flows of oil where prices are now higher, and it is Europe and Asia. "So that Iranian supplies would come into direct competition with Russian", - explained the expert.

Therefore, the price of Russian oil in 2014, also likely will decrease, but they "will not collapse as dramatically as the prices of other Russian export goods - non-ferrous metals", says Josef Auer.

Thus, Russia faces a dilemma. Of foreign policy and geostrategic considerations, she is interested in lifting sanctions against Iran and as a participant in the negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue is committed to a successful outcome.

However, as a hydrocarbon exporter Russia must fear that on the world market at the moment and so does not suffer from energy shortages, return the country with the fourth largest oil reserves on the planet. But the growth of the Russian economy already seriously slowed down.


Tags: Iran , assessment , oil

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