Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Economy and Finance / Markets: estimates and projections / Articles
China refused gas. Someone will have to pay for it
Material posted: Publication date: 19-10-2018
People's Republic of China refused to import liquefied natural gas from the United States. When you consider that last year the markets of China the Americans have put about 3.6 million tons of LNG, it is a very serious blow to the American energy sector. As it turned out, China "is this your jokes" with trade restrictions once not understand.

War — war. And Americans, the need to rapidly solve something. It's simple.

According to analysts from Reuters, in the past year, American producers of LNG, the average "trimmed" from the Chinese market of about one billion dollars per month. And it was for the Chinese is largely a political choice: on the "market" the us shale gas plus operation "liquefaction/liquefaction" — written so that the repetition will wear already openly mocking the character for our valued readers. And given the systematic decline in Chinese coal-fired capacity and rising gas needs of China, currently (and this is not a forecast but a reality) the United States lose access to the very promising market of South-East Asia.

It is known that no later than November of this year, China will become the undisputed leader among importers of gas, surpassing the gap with the neighboring Japan.

The majority of both Chinese and international experts are sure that by the end of the next decade, gas consumption, China is at least double and closer to absolutely space the figure of half a trillion cubic meters per year.

And in General, places on the market would be enough for everyone. Even the American slates. Unless, of course, "political roof" of most of these slates will behave.

But we in the Russian Federation there is an interesting short-term historical and economic perspective. So, next year Americans are planning the commissioning of LNG facilities, increasing import about 100 billion cubic meters per year.

So: given the forced "political" care of American LNG to the growing Chinese markets, these potential sales will have somewhere to replace.

American energy structures, in this case, overproduction is very bad news. Especially when you consider the parallel incoming power of the Russian Yamal Peninsula, near which the American shales that is not very competitive in Asian markets: there are properties of the gas itself, and the advantages of liquefaction at low Arctic temperatures, and characteristics of logistics, and many other things. Sakhalin and sea of Okhotsk, the Russian gas also uses, to put it mildly, in good demand.

The Americans are here, we are technically just not competitors. Moreover, partly willing (this is proven in practice) to buy Russian LNG.

Not much U.S. LNG competitive in comparison with traditional markets in South-East Asia suppliers from Qatar and other Gulf States.

So now we are discussing the feasibility of building a giant LNG plant in Louisiana with a capacity of eight million tons per year. But in order not to disrupt the strategic plans (the Americans are going over the next five years to increase supply in the market of liquefied natural gas by about 75% growth), these tankers somewhere will still have to go.
And the best victim of the us shale expansion look European markets. And no construction of "North" and "Turkish" threads will not be able to prevent this.

No, the fact that both branches of the Nord Stream as the "Putin-Erdogan" Turkish stream will be built, — no doubt, no one, including the Americans, no. But this does not mean that all of Europe will sit on the intake that is cheap and good quality Russian pipeline gas.

In the end, the resource base of Russia, though vast, but not limitless.

And Russian has at least two gas corridor to China is geopolitically important "Korean route." There are ambitious plans to control at least a quarter of the world's LNG markets.

So, Russia itself is starting to think about the need for further "gas expansion" to Europe. Therefore, in the various international energy circles now, quite actively discussed an unspoken consensus on fixing the import of Russian gas to Europe on the level of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2, plus the "Turkish corridor" and "Soviet" routes. And their possible reduction: the benefit of this and doing nothing really is not necessary, enough not to interfere with Ukraine to be stuck with his own GTS.


Given the fall in European production that will be quite enough for European markets slid and U.S. LNG. And this situation in the European destinations will be more or less a compromise to make everyone relatively important players among suppliers.

As for the clients who did not hide and gave the power of decision to other "centers of power", who are to blame.


Tags: assessment , USA , China , gaz

RELATED MATERIALS: Economy and Finance