After the incident in 2008. the global financial and economic crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008, to the economists started to make a complaint about the insolvency of their methods of prediction of crisis developments.
For example, in the article by A. Litvinova rightly States that "...crash tests of leading Russian indexes showed that most of them will not be able to indicate the symptoms of a new financial catastrophe due to the confusing methodology and aperiodicity exit...".
We consider it expedient to clarify the situation.
First we wanted to write a short response to the article. But then it turned out that she might seem weak, because not enough just to say that predicting crises is a very real and feasible task, but it is important to show how and on what principles it can be done. I wanted to let the readers understand the basics of forecasting techniques, see for their viability, and to believe in the possibility of practical application. It was therefore decided to provide a more detailed summary of our positions. Note that this is not an attempt of justification (believe that we make excuses nothing, especially as referred to in article1 , the indices we developed and almost not used) and try to transfer my modest experience to future analysts. That it will be useful, we have no doubt – in our opinion, the financial and economic crises will happen next. And God forbid that their series is not over serious social shocks and military conflicts on a global scale.
But let's not talk about sad things. Browse to the presentation of the history and merits of methods of prediction of crisis developments in the financial and economic systems.
It so happened that the problem of predicting the expected onset of the financial and economic crises – global and regional – we've worked since 2006 to be exact, in 2006 there appeared the first results with a high degree of probability point to the possibility of the development of the crisis on the turn of 2008-2009, Some of them were published in 2007, early 2008, and the rest in 2009
The results obtained in the form of analytical notes and until the fall of 2008. regularly reported to the decision makers. At first they were treated with some caution, which is quite natural, because in our country there was no lack of prophets to apocalyptic thinking. The more that the courtyard was prosperous 2006. when, seemingly, did not promise any economic upheavals and, especially, accidents.
Subsequently, however, these forecasts have gradually changed: began to demand more detailed analysis and more specific findings. Maybe there are additional external information confirming that it is in fact not so smooth as it seems at first glance.
Below we will try in a simplified form to present the essence of the considered methods of predicting the onset of crises. You will see that there is nothing complicated about them, on the contrary, all is simple and clear.
But when one precondition: when forecasting you need to call things and phenomena by their proper names, to try to understand how the reality is constructed, the global financial system and economic system of Russia, in particular. If this is not done, for forecasting financial and economic crises and should be avoided.
1. Latent features projected systems.. 5
2. Mathematical models 12..
3. System of leading indicators: the global economy 15..
4. System of leading indicators: the Russian economy.. 30
5. Crisis after crisis.. 35
A list of sources used 43..
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