Almost in all developing states, except India, within 2015 delay of economic growth against reduction of prices on the exchange goods and toughenings of financial conditions proceeded. Thus the world economy steady rise remained trudnodostizhimym, has noted Obstfeld.
One of primary factors which will influence global economy in the come year, still have growth delay in China. The country passes from investments and production activity to consumption and services.
According to Obstfelda, global secondary effects from decrease in rates of increase in China, influencing through reducing of its import and reduction in demand for the exchange goods, were much more considerable, than specialists of fund expected.
"Serious problems for the reorientation, concerning weakness of balances of the state enterprises, the financial markets, and also to general flexibility and rationality of distribution of resources remain. Rates of increase below official target indicators of the authorities can frighten again the world financial markets, but at the same time old methods of provision of accomplishment of target indicators of growth can extend only existence of an economic disbalance that is fraught with the subsequent problems", - has underlined Obstfeld.
Last year inflow of the capital to developing states has decreased, the part of reserves is spent, sovereign spreads have increased, national currencies oslabli, and in some countries rates of increase have sharply decreased.
"Decrease in exchange rates has appeared extremely useful means for mitigation of various economic shocks. However the further dip in prices on the exchange goods, including on energy carriers, will cause still the big problems for exporters, including faster decrease in exchange rates which can lead to origin for the present the latent factors of vulnerability in balances or to urge on inflation", - the expert has declared.
Besides, the fear of economists causes crisis of the refugees leaving Iraq and Syria. It creates complexities for EU not only in respect of acceptance of migrants and for labour markets, but still in bolshej to a measure for political systems.
"The project of joint protection of perimetre of EU and the contradictions connected with it concerning free moving of people in Europe are worthy. But we should not forget that such countries as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, are on a first line of crisis of refugees", - Obstfeld has added.
Except refugee problems, "in front of Europe there are other political and economic difficulties - from Iberian peninsula to Greece and Ukraine", he has added.
International trade which last years experienced difficulties as growth of world trade concerning gross national product growth was slowed down becomes one more problem for world economy in 2016. According to the group economist of IMF, there is opened a question on accepting of the agreement by the Congress of the USA about Transpacific partnership (TTP). "It is possible, we learn about it in the spring", - has noted Obstfeld.
In these conditions FRS plans some more increases of interest rates, the expert has told. As he said, by the end of 2015 in the financial markets gloomy moods prevailed, the markets are subject raised volatilnosti, despite proceeding mitigation of conditions by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
"Unconditionally, the Federal reserve system of the USA has started in December as she considers, to a cycle of gradual increases of interest rates. It will be extremely important, as FRS will conduct the subsequent increases of interest rates in 2016 and as it will co-operate with the market: in the end of 2015 this task, apparently, began to be carried out in the correct image", - believes Obstfeld.
- 02-05-2020Four of the Americans ' Outlook: what will happen to the world economy and the US economy
- 21-02-2020The phantom menace: the non-obvious consequences of the depletion of nature for the economy
- 24-07-2019Look at the future of business: five trends postremoval era
- 23-06-2019Industrial revolution 4.0: how the Internet of things is changing business and how to stay afloat