That the introduction of nefteyuani, that is, the calculations in this currency for oil and related futures contracts, as so much has been written in recent months, hardly goes smoothly, says at least the time factor, writes the WSJ. Autumn wrote excitedly about the fact that they will appear before Christmas. Moreover, many analysts and the media claimed it as a fait accompli, without the slightest shadow of a doubt. I was wrong.
The year is almost over, and nefteyuani still there. One of the main problems for their introduction is that the oil market is very different from the familiar to the Chinese market, for example, iron ore.
The oil market has been among the most volatile in terms of prices for raw materials. For examples of sharp fluctuations in walking is not necessary. Take the explosion in the beginning of the week on the oil pipeline in Libya, then the price of "black gold" rose by 3%.
We can confidently say that the main consumers of oil on the planet – China and India would prefer to pay for it in dollars and in your currency. Beijing has repeatedly talked about the introduction of futures in RMB. It should be remembered that this decision was made after thorough deliberation and many years of training. However, the success of the transition to nefteyuani will largely depend not on the desire of the Chinese authorities and investors in the oil markets. Meanwhile, says Wall Street Journal (WSJ), their nefteyuani impress hardly.
It is quite logical that Beijing want to have their own benchmark. Of course, the Chinese account for oil can't be tied to the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil produced in the old fields off the coast of the UK, which is a few tens of thousands of miles from Beijing. The problem is, the WSJ believes that Chinese regulators do not trust their own markets and are constantly interfering in their activities, when they occur serious movement. This applies particularly to the behavior of the yuan, when it does not suit Beijing. While this will continue, foreign oil producers and traders are very cautious approach to investment in the market, which adds volatility to the situation, already very unstable.
It should be added that measures to restrict the withdrawal of capital abroad, which have significantly tightened in comparison with the year 2015 has already made quite a stir in the commodities markets of China. For example, the market in Dalian, futures iron ore and dominated by retail investors, has high volatility. Price fluctuations in global markets such as, for example, copper, are not as strong because institutional traders may use the opportunities of cross-border arbitrage in new York or London change dramatically in price.
In China, however, to make it easy. This means that price fluctuations there can be very significant. At different periods in the last two years and particularly noticeable in early 2017 futures for iron ore in Dalian was trading with about a 50 percent increase in the average price of iron ore imported into the country.
Another obstacle to effective input nefteyuani may well be the fact that the share of China in world demand for oil is still much lower than in iron ore. There's no escape. despite the rapid growth of this share in recent years. In 2016, China's share in world demand for "black gold" amounted to 13%, and the United States, for example - 20.
Given the other risks becoming clear, writes the American edition that the only reason to use oil contracts in yuan can become a desire to provide Beijing service. The big sellers such as Saudi Aramco, which is counting on a decent share of the Chinese money during the IPO, the company may begin to use contracts in yuan, but, of course, to a limited extent. On the other hand, it is obvious that this company will continue to provide the lion's share of international business in dollars. Therefore, the road to becoming nefteyuani will not be strewn with roses.
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