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Losing Novorossiya, the Kremlin will lose European gas market
Material posted: Publication date: 11-10-2014

Almost at the same time Bulgaria began to pluck the construction of "South stream", and the West was rapidly defusing the confrontation with Iran. President Rouhani cheers: even West agrees to enrich uranium in his country.

The Iranian plan Friedman

In return for several years, the hosts of the West to build a pipeline Nebuchadnezzar (Nabucco), bypassing Russia, replacing its gas on the EU market of "blue fuel" from Iran. For this purpose the fact even the atomic bomb be allowed to have. This, and not the mythical "shale threat" - real danger to deindustrialization and degraded Russia.

The calculation of the West is very simple. Kremlin leaders are out of control and decided to claim the role of one of the world's forces. It's bad. You may need to cut their wings, deprived of income from the rich European gas market, where Russia occupies a third. Replace gas on Yamal shale – impossible: too expensive and environmentally dangerous. It is much cheaper to negotiate with Iran (and along with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan) and to supply power to the EU gas via Nabucco. This is at least twice as reduce the volumes of gas supplies from Russia to the EU, and the agreement with China does not compensate for the loss of Moscow. What the current Russian government to promote industrialization of the country and to revive scientific and industrial power of the USSR, the West is confident.

Do not assume that the West will not agree with the "scary Iran". In contrast to the degraded top management of the Russian Federation, Western managers are still capable of non-trivial steps. In 2011, the head of an influential U.S. think tank "Stratfor" (Statpages), George Friedman, published his book "the Next 10 years" (I read it), where it urged Washington to build partnership relations with Tehran. Supposedly, you need to make Iran an ally of the United States to maintain order in Central Asia. (Recall that "Stratfor" in the end of 2007 predicted a victorious war of Russia against Georgia).

The way it turns out. After all, the Iranian Islamic revolution of 1979 – 35 years. The passion has long subsided, Iran wants to live normally, without sanctions, people. It wants the tip of Iran, why the President selected the moderate Rouhani. The Iranian establishment is willing to go to defuse tensions and trade gas with the West. Because Iran needs new revenues. He needs Western technology, the ability of the elite to travel to Europe, etc. Remember how the USSR at the time, went to the discharge, on a transaction type of "gas in exchange for pipes" (1982) the Soviet establishment tried to negotiate with the West immediately after Stalin's death in 1953, Iran – just at the same stage. He got nuclear weapons? Lord, let hot. In fact, it made both India and Pakistan – and nothing terrible happened. The role of the Israeli lobby in the US long ago has been devalued: American Jews put Israel as superfluous in modern times project. Yes and Iran is not going to bomb Israel. It's time to "tame" Iran. Similarly, America is now moving closer to India.

Russia in turn Iran into its orbit not hold. In 2000 I happened to be in Iran. Then I saw that the Persian companions asked Moscow: let's together to deploy in Iran, the production of passenger aircraft Tu-334 (they liked the thrust of the "carcasses"), the production of railway locomotives. We have built in Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran was willing to buy our submarines, anti-aircraft s-300 systems, combat aircraft and helicopters. After all, it was under Western sanctions. I know that we could put Iran in Rostov harvesters, machine tools, equipment for power plants, etc.

But Moscow foolishly missed the opportunity to create a military and economic Alliance with Tehran. The Bushehr nuclear power plant was built with wires, damn slow. Joint production of aircraft and locomotives wasted. And then the administration Medvedev has joined Western sanctions and disrupted the delivery of s-300 to Iranians. No wonder they took offense at Moscow, and now may well go on rapprochement with the West. Fortunately they have somewhere to sell their huge gas reserves.

I think that in the West think the same way. You can take into account the fact that the antiRussian position easily addicted to other gas suppliers – Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. If Iran gets closer to the West, the problem of natural gas pipeline along the Caspian seabed is removed completely, and the Russian Federation to stop him is not able. And then you can think about how to supply Europe with natural gas from offshore Israel: there is proven solid its volume. At the same time can completely rid Kiev and from all dependence on Russia for gas.

Checkmate Moscow

Things start to unfold for Friedman. The West looks at Russia with disdain and thinks that it is time finally to finish off. Administration Yeltsin and Putin coped with the destruction of the Soviet scientific and industrial capabilities, turning the country in a completely raw state. The same Friedman predicted the death of the Russian Federation to 2030 due to demographic problems and the destruction of worn-out infrastructure. So, Russia is seen as a "sick person" who needs to cut less. To continue the process of dismemberment of the USSR, stopped in 1993, the prevention of disintegration of the Russian Federation. And that Moscow has any illusions about the greatness appeared. Some operations in the Crimea and new Russia. Some attempts to create a Eurasian Union. Isn't it time and varity Putin in his weak economic the rear?

The first step is the deprivation of Kremlin gas revenues from the European market, especially Moscow (after Yeltsin) have helped this plan. Putin did not use a trillion-dollar flows of neftegaztruba to reindustrialization of the country, preferring to spend all their (imports of passenger cars alone reached 70 billion dollars a year, food – 40 billion in total commodity revenues Russia about 600 billion dollars a year). Nethistory Moscow in 2000-2014 allowed on unnecessary "image megaprojects" (stadiums instead of plants). She wasted $ 50 billion in the Sochi Olympics "the grave", instead of forced to build the "South stream". I mean, she even could not resist the logic of the struggle for a place on the European gas market.

And now, after Crimea and de facto defeat in the new Russia, Moscow would get his. For laziness, stupidity and cowardice. For decades of lordly idleness and hedonism of the governors. For betting on football and spectacle instead of betting on a new five-year plan of industrial development. Capitulation to Putin in the Donbass will not. The West will get rid of dependence on the EU gas from the Russian Federation.

Will the Kremlin respond?

Again put yourself in the place of the current master of the Kremlin. What I would have taken now?

First of all, would have won the war for Novorossiya, providing assistance to the militia heavy weapons. Because if Nabucco does not prevent, we need to reunite Russian lands for new industrialization. You need to increase your potential industry of Donbass (and there are and valuable plants of the MIC) and corasaniti Ukraine.

Second, would produce the Shoe at the top, sending to landfill the government Medvedev together with the entire camarilla "liberal economists", forming the government of new industrialization. The office, figuratively speaking, Mikhail Delyagin, Sergei Glazyev, Konstantin Babkin, Maxim Kalashnikov, Vasily Melnichenko, Mikhail Khazin and others. That is, would pravitelstvo new five-year plans and industrial development.

Thirdly, raised a rebellion in Bulgaria (and there is the soil, and people). Just crossing the road of the future "Nebuchadnezzar".

Fourthly – out of the WTO. This is a prerequisite for reindustrialization.

Fifthly, would have forced Gazprom to develop deep processing of gas within Russian Federation and gasification own country.

Sixthly, would offer Iran a joint program of developing nuclear weapons and submarine fleet, as well as the creation of a gas cartel (equivalent of OPEC).

So I would act. And it's unlikely to act so rotten to the core, lazy, and retarded the tip of the current Russia? I think the answer you know. As you know it and the managers of the West. They are well known managerial helplessness of the Kremlin, a complex of national inferiority and inability to make history, to put on "fiction". Power crowned burghers-citizens can only imitate the West. In the West perfectly understand that the Kremlin and now will not be able to respond to strategic threat, lost $ 20 billion on world Cup 2018 and the 2019 Universiade, and does not use them in the cause of scientific and industrial revival.

Maxim Kalashnikov


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