Analyzed the forecasts of economists, to understand, what can we expect from the new year. When economists undertake to do forecasts – and these forecasts look investors, and from them ultimately depends on their behavior, and hence the health of the economy, they operate with a finite number of indicators. We will try to analyze them today to understand what we expect from the new year.
RUBLEThe ruble in Russia are determined by supply and demand. If the exchange demanded more dollar than the ruble, the ruble is weakening, and Vice versa. In this case, the supply and demand are determined by a number of factors, the main of which is the oil price, as nearly half of the country's budget is formed by oil revenues. If oil weakens, investors and speculators do not believe that the ruble is the prospect, therefore, is laid in the dollar, the ruble depreciates. In addition, by lowering oil prices, the government and the Central Bank to keep the ruble a lot of receipts in the budget (this can be done on short horizons), weaken the rouble through massive sales of roubles. But in moments of crises, the government is more likely to act on the contrary.
According to the economist Igor Nikolayev, 2015 will be marked by the weakening of the ruble. By spring the dollar will cost 70-80 rubles, he writes in his blog. Official forecasts are more optimistic. According to Deputy Minister of economic development Alexei Vedev before the new year, the Agency changed the Outlook on the course, from 37.7 rubles per dollar (the figure was kept for many months) to 49 rubles per dollar. In this case, the ruble will weaken in the course of the year, but slower than thinks Nikolaev.
Besides, officials are making statements designed to cheer up ruble.
- The ruble should be much stronger next year with regard to the effect of "flight", or impairment, and taking into account the growth in oil prices, said at the final press conference, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
Regarding oil price forecasts to build difficult, because there are no techniques that could predict the pricing of this product. So you have to rely on indirect indicators.
Of particular importance are the statements of the authorities of Saudi Arabia who say they are willing to endure the price even at $40 per barrel. While Saudi Arabia's budget, pegged at $90, is already experiencing serious difficulties. But the Saudis insist that they want to punish those countries that are not included in OPEC. To increase the price of oil, OPEC countries cut production and their profits. Countries outside OPEC are, and are chasing the market all that they have. This "punishment", unfortunately, applies to Russia, although Saudi Arabia is against Iran. The only country that partially came out from under the sanctions and are ready to flood the markets with oil.
At that time, as a number of experts and officials say prices will begin to rise in the second half, the Central Bank are sure that oil is getting cheaper for a long time, talked about this in December in an interview with the Deputy Chairman Ksenia Yudaeva. Nikolaev in General raises the question of maybe we are entering the era of low prices long 30 years. The same thought is traced in the article by Alexei Kudrin and Yevgeny Gontmakher in the journal "Questions of Economics" for December.
Inflation by the end of 2014 for the first time in a long time was double-digit, 11.5 per cent (the final figure will be announced later). In December there were periods when inflation was 1% in a week, this is a very alarming sign.
Nikolaev believes that the trend will continue in 2015:
- be aware that since the beginning of 2015 as a result of the so-called "tax maneuver" (increased tax rates on mineral extraction is a major component of this maneuver) would be enough significantly increase the price of gasoline. Plus, the accelerated growth of tariffs of natural monopolies, after the government's "bored" in their frozen state. For example, if tariffs for passenger rail transportation grew in 2014 by 4.2%, in 2015 the growth should be 10%. Electricity tariffs for the population in 2015 – 2017 plan be indexed to inflation previous year plus 1%. That count, writes the economist in a blog post.
The official forecast for next year was 6%, it increased in late summer to 6.5%, it is clear that this is unrealistic numbers, but the new official forecast on inflation will be only in the spring.
The official GDP growth forecast for 2014 is 0.5%, the economic development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev admitted in the fall of that growth can be slightly larger, to 0.8%. Meanwhile back in February, the forecast growth should reach 1.8% (CB).
According to the Institute of strategic analysis FBK GDP dynamics next year will be negative, minus 4%.
- Someone will say, well, nothing won in 2009, GDP fell by 7.8%. So, the principal difference today from what it was six years ago, is that then on the drop was the end. Today, by and large, all only begins, - emotionally wrote in his blog the head of the Nikolaev Institute.
Evaluation WB is not so bad, zero in 2015, earlier the world Bank predicted the same growth as the government is 0.5%.
The standard of living in such a situation the economy can't grow. As stated in the article quoted Kudrin and Gontmakher, for years the Russians were outpacing wage growth and stagnant productivity. If such conversations go, it means that people are prepared for the fact that wages at least will not grow.
In November, real incomes fell by almost 5% (year-on-year).
- In 2015 the falling incomes of Russians will continue. It can be 8 - 10%. And this is more than significantly, - says Nikolaev.
The expert discussed: 2015 – yet it is nothing, that 2016 really have to worry, clenching his teeth. But these forecasts should still survive. We only recall that Nikolaev in detail predicted the current development of events is probably the only experts. It happened in December 2012 in the Studio "KP-TV".
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