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"Russia declared war." Kazakh economist about the collapsing ruble and the showdown on a global scale
Material posted: Publication date: 19-12-2014

Most of the consequences of the sharp fall of the ruble fear in the Union republics, particularly in Kazakhstan, where for any events in Russia traditionally see very carefully. In March of this year the Republic has experienced a shock devaluation of the tenge, then the national currency of Kazakhstan lost a quarter.Then the devaluation explained including mild weakening of the ruble. It is easy to guess that "black Tuesday" in Russia has caused in the Republic strong fermentation of minds. Some experts vote on the matter is very clear: in particular, the Kazakhstani economist Petr Svoik explains the events in Russia by the fact that she declared war.

"Ribbon.ru": What, in your opinion happened in Russia? Why the ruble has fallen so dramatically?

The Svoik: what happened, cannot be described as a catastrophe, but it is the biggest defeat. Here it should be mentioned that economic sanctions and a cooling of relations between Russia and the West is not because of Crimea and not from Donetsk or Lugansk. This is the only cause, nothing more. Russia declared war. Moreover, the principled and war to the bitter end.

What do you mean by a victorious end?

The overthrow of Vladimir Putin and the establishment in Russia of a regime at least liberal governments type of Khodorkovsky-Kudrin. A maximum splitting of Russia into several European-type parliamentary States. It is clear that all what is happening, is directed to the reformation of Russia. This is not an economic and political war, and global scale. And Putin, getting involved in this war as political leader of the former Empire (which had not forgotten what was once an Empire), of course, is in pole position before his people, as is part of this nation that wants to reclaim his Empire and encouraged and the Crimea, and the South-East of Ukraine. Therefore Putin is definitely a leader. But Putin is the head Russian economy and economic elites of Russia. And Russia's economy is colonial and subordinate clauses, with the mother country in London and Washington. What is Russia's economy? From raw materials exports to Europe — gas, oil, metals. While in pursuit of material exports and foreign exchange earnings from the sale of this raw material — it also goes to the West. Further West the way we shop. And consumer, and construction market of Russia heavily tied to Western industrial and consumer goods. Third — financial retail. External credit and investment instruments are working on fixing predateli the Russian economy. And when Putin went to war with the West, having a Pro-Western economic support, began to take a beating. For example, what did Putin appointed the leadership of the Central Bank, corresponds to what would make a Western headquarters for the opposition of Russia.

What would the West to do this?

First, we had to lower the price of oil. And it was done. And from the outside. That is, there is Russia. Could do it without her. Secondly, it was necessary to lower the ruble. But to do it without Russia's participation would be impossible. And Russia has put itself at the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina is absolutely clear, absolutely sincere liberal who is neither undercover nor a traitor. She just believes in liberal monetary dogmas. Nabiullina announced the free float of the ruble, and with the agreement of the entire ruling class. Neither Prime Minister Medvedev, none of the Ministers had not resented it — they say send it in resignation. They just agreed with it. And free-floating the ruble went down. I would like to stress that collapse of the ruble is not Obama and Merkel. This made the Russian economy.

Where will this lead?

In the coming months all prices in Russia tied to imports would come close to the cost of the devalued rouble. Prices will rise if not twice, then fold in half exactly. Accordingly, the government will have to make some budgetary compensation to socially vulnerable layers of the population, in order not to lose completely the trust of the people. But it all goes in the lagging mode, and the situation in Russia to deteriorate in economic and political terms. And so about six months. But the Russian authorities were now to compensate and mitigate losses from arranged by their devaluation.

By the way, at the end of this the devaluation of the Madam Nabiullina has put a fat point, which can be compared with a control shot in the forehead, she raised it to incredible heights the interest rate. If this was done to ensure that Russian economic establishment is not stoked on the ruble, then, this could be good. But from the point of view of national investment, is a shot in the forehead. Besides that the Russian government for the next year will be to disentangle the effects of the devaluation, so he has yet to stagnate due to the lack of sources of growth of the economy.

If taken by the government action is wrong, what should have been done?

It was necessary to transform the economic external dependence in the pros. Example: if now the Russian economy is dramatically dependent on the export of raw materials, then should this relationship change so that the recipients of raw materials depended on its volume and cost. Not Russia, supplying the same oil on the world market, worried about the cost, and to regulate this market, selling as much as you need.

How can this be achieved?

There are two crucial aspects. First: complete fixation of the ruble to the currency foreign transactions, i.e. to the dollar. Take ten-inch nails and nail the ruble against the dollar, to eliminate any idea that you can play on rate fluctuations. Second: in addition to banking and commercial lending to create a system of public investment and credit, aimed at financing domestic infrastructure — agriculture, industry and so on. But could Putin do it now? Surely not! He cannot all at once change, because to change him, nobody else. The point is not to remove the Minister, and that Elvira is the same as that of Dmitry Medvedev, and Anton Siluanov, Alexei Ulyukayev, and Igor Shuvalov and Arkady Dvorkovich, and other. Regional elite is riddled with market liberalism so that on their basis to construct a national-oriented policy impossible.

Did Putin Minister, sincerely believing that she is an expert, or he put it to ruin in any case, the coloniality of the Russian economy needs capital to fall. Need to demonstrate to themselves and to all others that such an economy is not only untenable, but also directly harmful. This process in Russia is happening now. But in order to start a new economic cycle, we need a new political process. The problem is not that Putin doesn't have personnel for carrying out other policies that he has no political institutions, through which these images could climb. The same Russian Duma, from the point of view of foreign policy, is absolutely Pro-Putin, but from the point of view of the colonial economy — it is heavily permeated by the London interests. So, like it or not, but economic problems in Russia will worsen.

Apparently, Putin will have to pursue political reform and to form a Duma, which will be able to assist him in economic terms, the same comprehensive support as in political terms.

When will this happen?

I think, soon. Will have to get some more economic losses, may be somewhat smaller than this, which are arranged Nabiullina and Medvedev. And only then will start something else. I repeat: there is a political war. And it will last as long until either Putin will not resign or Russia will disintegrate into several States loyal to the West. Naturally, about any of Eurasian integration in this case cannot be and speeches.

By the way, I want to say that Nursultan Nazarbayev perfectly understands all this and he has no other strategy but to observe, and then adjoin the vector, which is indicated by the results of all these events. So we are still waiting, but tenge will firmly hold your course.

But Putin is to blame will not succeed. On the contrary, the current correspondent Apocalypse only brings this turning point in Russian monetary, trade and industrial policy, which boomerang will start all sanctions against the organizers.

How does all this affect Kazakhstan?

For us what is happening in Russia is no less a shock than for Russians themselves. And we have a mood close to panic — everyone is waiting for the devaluation. However the material reasons for this. Negative trade balance of Kazakhstan with Russia, which has been all these years (from minus 13 to minus 12 billion dollars not in favor of Kazakhstan), in case of abrupt subsidence of the ruble not much will change, and again not in favor of Kazakhstan. Additional subsidence of the ruble will increase the balance on half-billion dollars. This is from the point of view of the reserves of Kazakhstan — a mere penny. And to keep the tenge exchange rate at such sagging trade balance is not difficult. That is, there would be no devaluation, and if it is, then only after certain political events, which, of course, brewing, evidenced by the extraordinary message of the President of Kazakhstan to the people. After this message no political event occurs. And the stronger Russia is in confusion, the greater the reported reasons for these events not to hurry. Kazakhstan does not have now any opportunity to respond to the Russian events, but carefully watching them, trying not to get involved. After everything settled down, to hold the political and economic integration.

Interviewed Ruslan Bahtigareev

Source: http://lenta.ru/articles/2014/12/18/svoik/

Tags: Russia , crisis , finances


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