Samarin I.V., Fomin A.N. "Short-term forecasts of the oil prices"

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Samarin I.V., Fomin A.N. "Short-term forecasts of the oil prices"

Print version Material posted: Publication date: 23-02-2016

The key macroeconomic parameters of the Russian economy are rigidly correlated with the oil income from oil export which, in turn, generally are defined by the oil prices in the world market (further we will use these standard phrases "oil market", "market of oil", despite their convention). Therefore, for understanding of that can occur in our country already in the near future, it is necessary to try to predict the expected price of the Russian oil at least of the short-term periods lasting some years. We understand, on what slippery path we now entered as it is difficult – to predict the oil prices even for the next years. Not without reason some experts compare this problem to creation of the perpetual motion machine. But, on the other hand, all the same it periodically should be done, I form the state budgets and economic policy of the state. So, it is better to try to understand this question or, at least, to plan possible ways of its more or less acceptable decision, than constantly in emergency mode to be engaged in the budgetary adjustments and any other sequestering. In other words: the problem of the forecast of the oil prices is extremely difficult, but to try to solve it it is necessary, and from it not to get to anywhere.

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Tags: assessment , Russia , oil