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Six predictions from Davos
Material posted: Publication date: 26-01-2016
Prices of oil will go up, migratory crisis in Europe will amplify, and also other predictions of economists and politicians at a forum.

Acts of terrorism, geopolitical instability, volatility in stock markets — it with what restless 2016 began. But what will be farther? Though it is known that exact predictions to make extremely difficult, leaders of Davos nevertheless made them.

1. The economy of China will be slowed down, but isn't so strong as many think

Analysts, as a rule, pass from one extreme to another in the predictions.

— The markets can be maniac-depressive, they go from excessive optimism to excessive pessimism. That is why we don't want to read too much about talk on delay of growth of the second-large economy of the world — the economist Nuriel Rubini declared to participants of a forum. — My supervision across China say in recent years to me that there will be neither sharp decrease in growth rates of economy, nor a soft landing. I would tell that China is going to land uncomfortablly.

The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde does the similar forecast: as China continues economic reforms, growth (its economy) can be slowed down slightly, but will fluctuate probably around 6,5% — it is absolutely acceptable rate.

2. The conclusion of the peace treaty across Cyprus

After decades of the conflict in 2016 people will see the world in Cyprus. It was declared by leaders of the divided island during the special address in Davos.

The president of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis declared that this year can become decisive in the movement to the world: "It is the defining times for Cyprus, for all big region and for the world in general". The leader of the Turkish Cypriots Moustapha Akinchi agreed with it: "We work constantly to reach the mutually acceptable decision" — he told, having added that "we should work together to make 2016 year of the peace treaty of the agreement on Cyprus".

3. Migratory crisis in Europe will amplify

Last year we saw unprecedented number of the migrants who arrived to Europe from suffering from war and poverty of the countries. Leaders of the continent didn't manage to cope with crisis which will only amplify.

— In the first three weeks of this year 35 thousand people crossed the sea and arrived from Turkey to Greece. Last year for all January of such refugees there were only 1,6 thousand. We can't cope with such quantity" — the prime minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte declared to participants of a forum.

4. Renewables will become cheaper

"We see the amazing development of sharp reduction of price of the renewables (R), the sources working at energy of the sun and a wind give cheaper energy, than coal, in the increasing number of the countries and regions today" — the former Vice President of the United States Albert Gore told participants. In his opinion, the trend will proceed in 2016: "This decrease will proceed to a mark when RES become the cheapest source of electricity".

5. Prices of oil will return to normal

Collapse of prices of oil "is irrational", Khalid Al-Falikh, the head of the Saudi Aramco oil company declared. Even if the oil-extracting companies will increase production, the prices will raise anyway. "The market of oil went too far towards decrease, and is inevitable that it will start rising up" — Khalid Al-Falikh considers.

6. The world becomes better

Sometimes we are focused on negative stories and we forget as far we promoted on the way of progress — Bill Gates noted in interview of BBC.

— It is amazing that for the last 25 years we cut child mortality by half. And an innovation are guaranteed that this progress will be accelerated. Generally the world becomes better — the founder of the Microsoft company considers.

Eldar Akhmadiyev


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