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The oil shale block. Why the price of oil in the next two years will not exceed $60
Material posted: Publication date: 20-01-2017
Until the end of 2018, the increase in oil prices above $60 per barrel can be expected. The experts believe that the US Department of energy, with a fresh report which reviewed life. In their opinion, the main reason for "depreciation" concluded in December 2016, the agreement between OPEC and non-cartel miners of the black gold will increase supply on the world market. It will be been reached by the American kancevica, the Saudis and Russia. The result of the long-awaited balance of supply and demand will come only at the end of 2018 and not in the first half of 2017, as before stated, the government "steering" in OPEC is Saudi Arabia.

Monday, January 16, the Minister of oil of Saudi Arabia and President of the largest oil companies in the world Saudi Aramco Khalid al-falih said that OPEC will not have to expand in Vienna adopted measures to reduce production to stabilize world market black gold. In his opinion, the long-awaited balance of supply and demand will occur in the first half of 2017.

— Restoring the balance in the oil market, slow start we saw in 2016, will be manifested in full force by the end of the first half of this 2017, he said.

However, as found life documents the U.S. Department of energy, there is a great risk that these dreams if they come true, then much later.

— Despite the agreement of OPEC, the balance in the oil market should not wait until the end of 2018, — said at the disposal of life report of the energy information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department.

Now, according to OPEC and the EIA, a daily surplus of oil on the market reaches 0.9 million barrels. According to EIA, the first surplus reduced to 0.3 million barrels per day by the end of the year, and the year to 0.1 million bbl/d. And that's assuming that none of the signatory, whether OPEC members or their external partners will not violate its obligations to restrict production.

The growth in oil consumption, by the way, will continue. At the expense of China and India in the years 2017-2018 will be sold, respectively, at 1.6 and 1.5 million barrels. per day more than in 2016, says EIA. But, unfortunately for the signatories of the agreement with the OPEC countries, it can easily handle growing production of crude oil in the United States, Russia and several countries in the Middle East. It is first and foremost about the ubiquitous Iran.

In words — cut.

Still, production in the US, pushed by constantly falling oil prices, fell down in 2016 by 0.5 million barrels/day. Many experts, citing the effect of a lack of investment, foreshadowed a further decline. However, not considering future price increases to $45-55. In January, following the increase in the cost of a barrel, the Americans, as already said, life began to ramp up drilling. If the United States will not slow down the pace, in 2017, the States will again return to growth of production — first, by only 0.1 million bbl/day, and in 2018 another 0.3 million barrels/day, almost equalling the average level of 2015 at 9.4 million barrels/day.

However, their contribution to actual depreciation December "oil deal" in Vienna would contribute not so much the insidious States, as they agreed to deter oil producers from the Middle East and Europe, according to the Washington.

— Despite a deal on production cuts, a participating country by the end of 2017 its production will significantly increase. By the end of 2016 OPEC production rose by 0.8 million barrels/day to 32.9 million bbl/day. This year's growth, with the contraction in the first quarter of the year will be 0.3 million bbl/day, and in 2018 — an additional 0.5 million barrels/day, write American analysts.

In fact, it would devalue arrangement inside and outside the cartel to reduce production. Among responsible for the "depreciation" of countries, in particular, in 2017, we will gradually restore the former production of Iran and Libya, in 2018, this role will take is predominantly Iraq. In addition to their "contribution" will be released by reducing the production of Nigeria and, oddly enough, more than any lobbying agreement Saudi Arabia and Russia.

"Russia too will be a source of production growth outside OPEC, increasing its performance by 0.1 million bbl/d in 2017, and in 2018 For the 2016 local producers several times beat the Soviet record production, increasing it in one year, 0.2 million bbl/day"
— Report of the EIA

Overall daily production outside the influence of the cartel in 2017 and 2018, an increase of 0.4 and 0.7 million barrels, respectively, according to the report of the organization. Coupled with the expected growth in OPEC global progressive dynamics amount to 0.7 and 1.2 million bbl/d, respectively.

Forecasted rates of increase of world production seems quite real. If supply growth continues, its performance likely will continue to cover the demand. Thus, the way to achieve balance in the market will be closed, agrees with the findings of the US Department of energy head of sector "Energy markets", Institute for energy and Finance Nikolai Ivanov.

— In those States, the growth of production is absolutely expected. With the arrival of trump is suspended, the pipeline project Keystone Xl will defrost, and the rich oil from North Dakota will be able to enter the world market — says he is in conversation with Life.

It becomes apparent that the Saudi oil Minister are to maintain confidence in the market that the price of oil threatens nothing, though in fact the balance of supply and demand will not change significantly, says a leading expert of the national energy security Fund, lecturer of Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov.

However, in stocks brokers are unlikely long to believe allegations of the Minister. According to the forecast of EIA, conservation of surplus oil in the market after mid-2017, which OPEC has scheduled the balance, will keep prices from rising. Above $59 until the end of 2018, they believe in US Department of energy, not to rise.
Arseny Pogosyan


Tags: oil

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