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Possible scenarios of development of the Russian stock market
Material posted: -Publication date: 29-05-2009

In theory, the stock market is a mechanism for investing funds in the interests of formation of priority directions of development of the economy. This seemingly simple situation calls for some comment.

It is implied that we are talking primarily about the domestic economy. Although Russia is not a decree — its financial authorities to invest mainly in the economies of other countries. It is necessary that the economy was not overly monopolized and was extensively developed. In an economy where almost everything is determined by a few monopolies associated with the state government, the stock market is not needed, it becomes a fiction, an outwardly civilized instrument of property redistribution

The current crisis has revealed the main defects of the global financial system and global economy based on the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. Naturally, there will be analyzed the fundamental causes of the crisis and made appropriate conclusions. We can say that after the crisis the world will change. Likely to develop centrifugal tendencies and aggravated regional aspirations.

In the near future we should expect the deterioration of relations between the US and China. How would the leaders of those States were not smiling at each other, no matter what diplomatic expression didn't choose to communicate, but the oil China needs more, and in the world it is less. Near the moment when these two countries will exhaust their own energy capabilities and the capabilities of their neighbors and will inevitably face tough competition for energy resources.

This will further strengthen regional aspirations and will completely destroy the existing system of globalization.

Therefore, in our opinion, the probability of the 1st script is not great — all remain, as before, can no longer.

The probability (possibility) the implementation of the 3rd scenario, in our view, also not high — the "elite" will no longer be able to live any other way, its members had children and grandchildren who can't imagine a sharp roll social development of the country. Therefore, unless there is nothing extraordinary, for example, a sharp increase in protests, the socially-oriented economy in Russia in the coming decades will arise.

Most likely the 2nd scenario. But even he will enhance the economic potential of the country by reducing the outflow of resources, capital and "brain".

In this scenario (as well as socially oriented scenario No. 3) it is advisable to establish the state stock holding company. Increased attention should be paid to ensuring the sustainability of the exchange system under the action of random or deliberate negative factors. For example, it is expedient to regulate the functioning of the Central counterparty and the emergence of a legislative framework for the implementation of the clearing.

Speaking about the development of the instruments of the Russian stock market, much is no need to invent. In most cases, they market and fit the needs. You only need to fill them with real content and get rid of speculative virtuality. Or to limit it significantly. Incidentally, the FFMS did in late 2008 during the periods of sharp aggravation of the problems in the stock market, reducing the value of "shoulders."

In Western markets the actions of speculators necessary and logically integrated in the strategy of development of the financial system: they help to manipulate the prices to capture new markets. In Russia in the implementation of scenarios # 1 and # 2 main task will be not an expansion, and sustainability of the market, including from external negative influences. In this case, over-developed the spec can be not only useful but also harmful. Therefore, we should not blindly copy the Russian market exchange-traded instruments with a high speculative component.

In our view, it is also advisable to upgrade the methodology for determining the main Russian stock indices. This is not a minor issue as it might seem at first glance. Is abnormal when the current price values of shares are determined upon the results of low trading volumes, as it was in late 2008, Actually speculators, operating with small stakes, all distort the pricing system on the stock market. Met this is simple: you need to consider price changes only if the trading volume exceeds some criterial levels. In the opposite cases — take pictures "frozen". Then a chance to avoid the hype on the stock market, which was observed at the end of 2008

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