At the moment the share of Bitcoin falls to 0.16% of all consumed electricity. And this is not the limit. Some experts believe that if growth continues at the same pace, it will greatly affect the world energy system.



Here are some key features of Bitcoin index Energy Consumption Index from Digiconomist on the current electricity consumption of Bitcoin.

According to the conventional energy model and some assumptions Digiconomist, miners costs for electricity are correlated with the value of the coins mined in a certain proportion. So the electricity consumption is calculated based on the market value of the coins mined and the cost of electricity is 5 cents per 1 kWh Representatives Digiconomist recognize all the conventions and errors of such a model. But they are sure that the electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network, it should be considered with reference to the economy, not gigabeam in the network. Their analysis showed that based on Hasrat give greatly underestimated results. And based on the economy seems logical. In fact, the cost of electricity and equipment (cost of mining), should be some portion of the coins mined, leaving a reasonable proportion of profitability. If profitability is sufficiently great, then mining will become interested in new users, with the result that profitability should return to the previous level. In the calculation Digiconomist taken into account this time lag between the growth of profitability, the arrival of new miners and the return of profitability to previous levels.

Of course, such a conditional model Digiconomist a question. For example, according to the opinion of the investor Mark Bevan, here the consumption of electricity is inflated by 1.5−3.6 times. However, it does not change fundamentally the situation, only slightly shifts the time schedule exhibitors.

If you believe in the "economic model", the costs of electricity to mining will increase proportionally to the increase in value of bitcoin on the market, with some lag. It is not surprising that consumption is increasing at a rate: 25-30% per month.

If the trend continues (growth of 25-30% per month), then nothing good awaits us. For example, alarmists from the organization ZeroHedge calculatedthat then by October 2018 energy consumption of the Bitcoin network will be equal with the United Kingdom (309 TVT⋅CH), in July 2019 — USA (3913 TVT⋅CH), and in February 2020 Bitcoin "will consume all the electricity in the world" (21 776 TVT⋅CH).

The formula for growth is 25-30% a month is such a schedule.


Forecast of the share of Bitcoin mining in world energy consumption

It is difficult to imagine a world where all the electricity is spent only for mining bitcoins, but that such a picture displays on the chart the organization ZeroHedge.

Even if we imagine that a bitcoin is worth a lot of money if not to spend electricity for other purposes, then the world will be chaos — and bitcoin will immediately depreciate, as well as in the besieged Leningrad changed gold for bread.

Of course, these forecasts and charts ZeroHedge sucked from the finger. For example, The Washington Post interviewed experts believethat by 2020, mining crypto-currencies will be only 1% of U.S. energy consumption, or 0.14% of global consumption. There are only like 1-3 of a nuclear reactor. Of course, it is much more conservative and realistic assessment.

Source: https://geektimes.ru/post/296671/

Tags: information Society , bitcoin