Faculty of complex safety TEK held a lecture Professor of the Department of cryptology and algorithms albert Silantyev. Lecture on a very topical direction in the theory of social organisms.
According to albert Silantyev, comprehensive security must prevent the destruction of the system as such. Today, it is essential to talk about the objects that experts in the field of integrated security will be protected in the short future. For this we need to understand that life is a conditional information that seeks to reproduce itself. Figuratively, this event, before which there was another event that caused it. If there is a causal relationship, then there is conditional information. That is, a person wakes up, assuming that fell asleep last night etc. Life is a set of such chains, when one event follows another. And these chains are stored in the memory in the brain.
During the lecture, it was noted that the mind is the adaptation of life to changing conditions. Simply put, the reflexes, and the life carriers and the mind – the "social organisms". Thus, there is not only the lives of biological creatures such as man, but the life of the structures, for example, social structures such as civilization, nation, company, family, etc.
In such a complex structure of social organism of the researcher is only interested in people, although in nature there are other structures: the ant, the prides, etc. But in terms of specialty integrated security interested in human society. The man himself is already a social organism, and in different situations, it behaves differently. Individual, family, school, Institute, enterprise, government, civilization. These are social organisms that live, develop your goals, and these goals change.
Just as a person has inside the bloodstream, lymph, skeleton and muscle mass, the social organism has internal structure. It consists of resources. And, according to Silantyev, their is four of a kind. However, this is not a law of nature at all times. Four types of resources of social organisms, there are at least five or ten thousand years.
What is the resource of the social organism?
Air is a vital resource for humans, but air enough for all, for it is not necessary to fight, there is no competition for this resource. He is a resource, but not social.
The Mona Lisa is a masterpiece. But most people don't as often refer to it. This is a resource that is interesting to very few people, and is also not social.
What online — social? One that is interesting, and all is not enough. For example, money, elections and power.
Thus, the four resources that feed the social organism is: capital, power, people and mentality. People are people, family, nation. Capital — money, equipment, fixed assets, everything that is connected with trade, production, etc. power - the ability to control others. When a person sold or gave their time, their own abilities and actions of another, he gave the power over you. Mentality - conditional information that determines our behavior: ideology, faith etc.
These resources have their own social laws that identifitseerida and checked. Using these laws we can describe the behavior of resources, the transformation of one into another.
For example, taking two of the resource "money-capital" and "power" look at them carefully. Capital can turn into power? Can. The employer hired a worker and manages his time. The businessman needs some kind of law, but he has no power to do this, you can resort to lobbying.
If on the contrary, the power to turn into money? Can. You can put a condition that will sign something when you get the money for it.
According to the author, one of the components of mentality is technology. You could turn it into technology? Can. You need to invest in research and then to technology.
Can the power to turn into technology? Can. As once Stalin put scientists under lock and key in a "sharashka," to do science.
Is it possible on the contrary, the mentality is to turn into power? It is possible, using, for example, propaganda.
Two or three thousand years ago, the society was founded on the belief. The Governor or structure defined as people believe and in what; how to behave. An ordinary person was not able to influence the government. However, Peter changed the balance of faith and governance. Before Peter I faith was defined as a sovereign act and after Peter the situation has changed, the Emperor himself began to determine what should promote faith.
Today in our country the President determines whom and what to do. The Patriarch goes to him. And that's fine, it's part of our conditional information and our social views. But in Iran, Ayatollah defines the rules of living in the country, although the people legally elected President with an absolute majority. And now the Ayatollah has opened the Quran and said that in Surah 37 says that supposedly the President is wrong, and two days later, this President will not. It's tradition, it's the mentality. This is a specific conditional information, by which society lives. It is impossible to assess initially whether it was good or bad, and which system is better? And when viewed as social organisms interact, it is necessary to consider all possible options. If you make interaction with some person, organization, etc. you first need to understand the rules of some conditional information, the structure you live? For what are these structures? What are the values written in their heads, determine their behavior?
For example, capital more intensively interacts with the government and with the people. People need capital for businesses worked, and the power to build governance. The power of a well interacts with the capital and with the mentality. Mentality strongly interacts with the people and with the government. But all interact differently.
An example of the weak interaction: the capital with the mentality and the power of the people. Earlier it was a common phrase: "power away to people, and people do not care about power." At that moment the power and the people almost did not interact, and capital is weakly interacted with technology. The main reason for venturoli, high risks of funding technology. If they are not given "in a paw" - the profit does not get it. If anyone should have paid, the investments will turn a profit.
Interaction resources directly influence the methods of modeling and predicting the behavior of social organisms.
The author believes civilization is a process in which people with the same conditional information and common values. There are four resource. Therefore, there are four basic civilization.
For example, the main value of European and American civilization - money.
People who belong to this civilization, everything is measured by money. If you come to somebody on a visit to America, then it will show you a piece of paper where is written, how much money is spent, the receiving party at your reception. This is not a bill. Thus they show how much they respect you.
Another example. American scientists have conducted studies and found that the amount of stress men, when he divorces his wife, equal to the same stress when they experience the loss of 12.5 million dollars. No more, no less. They can count the money. That is their mentality, because their main value is money.
The mentality of middle Eastern civilization - Islam. Everything is interpreted through the Quran. Two great Nations with huge reserves of oil, Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting. Sunnis against the Shiites in the interpretation of the Qur'an on the definition of the principles of power and continuity of the spiritual heritage of the prophet. They are at war for centuries. So constituted their world.
People – the main resource of the state, its "body". The power – structure of the social organism, his "brain" and "skeleton". It is neither good nor bad. This is - objectively. We will not be able to live separately. We are forced to live together. But if we live together, we should be structured. Someone should define together what to do. A heavy beam can be carried out only if coordinated actions.
There are pure civilization and superethnos, mental or economic group. Each civilization has its own values. European – power and capital. In Israeli power and mentality. In Indian mentality and the people. In the Japanese capital and the people.
Thus, when it is known that there are four main resources that define the social body, according to the author, then you need to define different States that may be the body. For this you need two parameters: the purpose of this body and how active people or structures that are part of this body.
If divided according to the criteria of the target General-purpose, active-inactive, we can distinguish four States: the task-active or non-active. These four States correspond to the four types of behaviour which have been known since the time of Pythagoras. They are called: sanguine, phlegmatic, choleric and melancholic. Choleric – very active, but targets had to change. Phlegmatic passive, but it has a purpose. Phlegmatic good tedious repetitive work, where a mistake (accounting science). And if you need to solve unusual problems, you need someone active. Choleric'll be fine. But sanguine, which have the purpose and activity, it is mainly certain leaders, managers. Who know what to do and where the people lead. And who are melancholic in General? – it is the people, 50% of the population. Them more always than all, it is objectively true. Because everything is relative. The most active little. Can't be all at once to be leaders. So arranged by nature.
The state of social organisms determines how displays a matrix of behavior for these four resource. The power behaves like a sanguine. Hot-headed the capital. You need to create a profit, you need to run. Melancholic – people. Phlegmatic – they are scientists and clergy.
The behavior characteristic of different resources determines the state of society. Changing from sanguine to choleric, phlegmatic, melancholic and back again is called ethnogenesis. It was invented by N. Gumilev. He said that civilization is born from a quite inert masses of the people, when there are charismatic leaders, charismatic group. There is some resource that is the splash, which allows civilization to develop. Then civilization begins to stir. But still it has no purpose. When it moves activity it manifests itself, there are leaders and there is a way. There is, for example, Vladimir Lenin, which shows where to go.
An example of ethnogenesis – the Soviet Union in the late 80-ies of XX century. The growth in available resources has been small, the potential opportunities missed, and the momentum was still. This state of the phlegmatic. After that, the state of the melancholic. Because the resources to achieve the goal is already over.
During the cycle of ethnogenesis civilization grow from small to large. The reverse process - under great ideas at first, resources are then spent under the sanguine. Then resources run out, the idea itself is going through, remaining in the minds of the melancholic, and civilization collapses. These processes can be captured and can be understood. This is the world in which we live.
Now civilization is in a state of phlegmatic seeking to melancholic. The problems associated with the crisis, not only here, but throughout the world.
The interaction between capital and power in the twentieth century gave rise to world war. Not important participants, are important resources who fought, the capital was struggling with power. The government opposed the capital. Who won? Capital. The process of ethnogenesis to the development natural.
And if you move from power to capital, there will be something that happened in Russia in 90-e years. People have huge savings and were the people who had the power. They have turned their power into property, into money.
According to the author, a very interesting question of the fighting power and mentality. Power to survive, we need to come up with an ideology. And it's not there. Because of the complexity of the mentality. People are now more born? Muslims. Twenty years ago the Muslims had on average 6 children per family, and Russia is now 1.6 children per family on average. Now the Europeans are fighting for the number 2 children per family, the population does not die out. This means that Muslims in the world in percentage terms will be larger. And once more, they will take a leading place in the nation.
Not so long ago a lot of people in China, and China has turned people into money capital. Today the largest banks are Chinese banks. A decade ago, leadership was an American. China overtakes America in GDP and purchasing power.
So these are all base models. These are examples of basic interactions in the world.
There is a concept: the life cycle of the system. The social system or social organisms live according to their life cycles, and life cycle consists of an extensive development phase.
If at the same time offers many of the same stores, and nothing changes except the number is extensive phase. Momentum is growing, and there is no profit. Come limitations. There is no growth. There is a crisis. Even the volume of investments does not solve anything. There is a need to change something. There is a phase extensively, when looking for new mechanisms how to live. There are new solutions, all twisted in new ways. Is the resolution of the crisis. Work any life system. Therefore, when we talk about crises, the crisis should not be afraid. Crisis is the normal state of any living system that occurs at a certain time and certain conditions. But then the crisis passes, and then begins the stage of development.
Now – about crises of capital. According to the author, capital is an integral part of the resource, and it is dynamically evolving. The process of its development cycle. There is a civilizational cycle, of the order of 1200 years. There are socio-economic cycle of Kondratieff cycles, which occur every 50 years. For example, there was the internal combustion engine and that's enough civilization for 40-60 years. There are production cycles – from 8 to 12 years. And conjectural cycles when, for example, different companies of the world are fighting among themselves, fall into crisis and back – once in 3-4 years their relationship out. In order for the equity grew, he needed to feed. There are only 4 resources. Classic power for the resource – the people. For example, the capitalists have hired people, made products, made a profit, began to develop, but the city is limited. The products are made, and no one to sell – crisis.
Here, for example, produced 8 tons of oranges, and the people can eat only one ton. Dumped 7 tons, and the people: "This is so? Produced 8 tons of oranges, and we were given only one." And there was a commotion - crisis. Capital can't grow and bad people. You need to go to another city, to explore new territory and to sell their products. And starts a new phase. If we're talking about the classic phase, it was described by Marx, and before him the "Austrian Marxists" when the capital expanded and penetrated all the rest of the country and crushed them, it was also accompanied by military operations and pressure on other countries.
The behavior of the imperialist capital has described Vladimir Lenin. The imperialist phase – captured the capitalists of the whole world, govern all States. African countries give their natural resources for a pittance, as our country is now half the oil for pennies gives. Then comes the crisis. How to develop further?
Approx 1970. Western economists broke the head: the capital is growing, the world can rule, but still a crisis. How to develop further?
There is one more important thing is the capital, can have itself. Called this phenomenon the "judgment rate". The Bible said, "if someone gave someone 10 rams, you should get 11 sheep". The prescribed rate of return is 10 %. Capital can live by themselves – someone pays money and gets more rights. And how is it expressed who manages this process? Who gives money on loan? Banks. Banking capital. Banks are for a certain period, the main force of capital growth.
So, is the financial crisis. How to develop capital? To draw money. And invest in new technology. For example, in the development and production of smartphones. Smartphones buying everything. Invest and get new money. Or in the digital economy. But what technologies are new? Information technology. Based on these technologies are now developing two important areas: genetic engineering and artificial intelligence. This is what awaits us in the future. Genetic engineering is medicine, it's a huge market, medicine, food (higher yields). The lessons in genetic engineering in US schools learn how to change the genetic code of plants, for example. And what prevents to change the genetic code of a person? Nothing prevents, so far, only formal foundations. And in a situation when there is a war, there are morals? Are not. How not to rebuke, still someone will make.
Technology will be able to eat the capital, until an overabundance of them. Many will go bankrupt. Technology does not guarantee a large market, and can be economically advantageous.
After takeoff there will be problems. Technology will be so much that the capital will have nowhere to invest. Money will also be a surplus, and capital will cease to be socially meaningful resource. There will come a systemic crisis. It can be predicted, because new technologies are born in proportion to the square of existing technologies, at the junction of two technologies. If there are developments in the field of information technology, if there are developments in genetic engineering, then at the junction, a new technology that can give a product is important for the capital. The speed and growth of new technology is proportional to the square of existing technologies. This means that there will be limitations in the production of new technologies. Happens systemic crisis, which will lead to the emergence of new technological mechanisms helping to get out of this crisis.
Same with population, the author believes that in the 70 th year of the last century began to predict its growth, and found that the law is exactly the same. The population will grow infinitely by 2024. The capital growth associated with population growth. People more and consuming more. Now other times, the world has changed. Today, capital growth is due to new technologies, and that means we will have social problems. Sberbank has about 150 thousand employees, introducing information system to which we turn directly. Thus, Bank employees threatened with mass dismissal. And there is no solution, what will engage these people in the future.
The lecture was predicted and the world systemic crisis, which, according to Silantyev, will Mature in 5-10 years. And some of the current students, and at that time, security professionals, will be once in a while to work. They will work on the security of information systems, enterprise systems, social security systems over the security systems of the state, nation, etc. and these professionals will be elite and to be elite, not just to have the diploma education, you need to learn to understand the social processes taking place in the world.
Thirty years ago, back in the twentieth century, life was so constructed that basically played two resources: capital and power. Technology has come a free way to market, and nobody thought about whether it is good or bad. And now the situation is different – genetically altered person, and what that means in the future is not known. The fact that today will be new technologies – huge risk to humanity. Experts predict humanity must survive a social explosion and technological explosion, and the world will dominate for a time two resources: the mentality of the people. After a power tool connected with people? Through the budget. In Russia social spending is 10-15% of the budget. But in the U.S., 70% of the state budget is spent on social programs, and this is a huge bomb because the US budget in the future, it will not pull. Social explosion will lead to a change of government and change of values that we are beginning to see in our lives.
For all who want to understand more what is happening in the world, in society and in our minds, this theory is discussed in the book by albert Silantyev "Social laws and global model of development".
Why are there certain events? How to anticipate and influence them? There are a number of events that occur with high probability, despite an accident causes them. And the more people participate, the more inevitable events occur. According to the author events can be controlled. For this you need to control the factors that determine events. Those who are not able to control, is to observe and act in accordance with their capabilities.
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