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Analytical model to identify the signs of creation of psychophysical weapons
Material posted: Publication date: 03-12-2011

The process of emergence of new types of weapons and military equipment is characterized by the presence of many disparate factors, often concealed (not shown). The analysis of their development, a comparison with the capabilities solved by them of combat tasks, the integration of these factors in the General functional principles helps to identify the final results, namely the indicators that signal about the possibility of creating fundamentally new types of weapons.

It is known that in the process of its development, each new type of weapon passes through a series of life cycle phases in which the so-called implementation cycle reflects the state of the object from the initial concept to its operational readiness and usage. However, before developing the concept of creation of each new weapon that is a lot of expert-analytical work to substantiate the principal possibility of creation. At this stage a wide range of questions, the answers to which are found in a variety of areas of science, technology, military art, economy, etc. Thus formed information pattern of a new type of weapons, its possible estimated combat characteristics and makes a conclusion about expediency of its development. If a positive conclusion is already in the subsequent phases of the implementation cycle occurs specification information of the image of the developed sample with specification of its characteristics.

The complexity of the expert-analytical tasks associated not only with the closure of a probable opponent of relevant information on ongoing developments. This complexity is mainly determined by the absence of direct (shown) links trends in the development of new technologies, basic science, inventions and discoveries, the experience of combat use of existing weapons with an information display emerging types of weapons. I.e. here is a typical case of decision making based on the analysis of fuzzy sets of events.

The issue of processing of fuzzy information is associated with the task of introducing certain elements of subjectivity in conducting mathematical operations on objective data. The concept of "fuzzy" is not inherent in classical mathematics (set theory), since it has only two acceptable situations for many: it can be (1) or cannot (0) element of this set. In fuzzy sets the degree of affiliation may be any number of the unit interval [0,1] that gives the possibility of introducing a notion of weighted set. Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic has opened the possibility of developing techniques for the effective use of fuzzy information to perform practical tasks related to algorithms and software engineering [1].

In our case this task is the task of identifying signs of the creation of psychophysical weapons (PF-weapons) [2]. While solving this task the problem of defining basic structure of the models of elements PF-weapons. The first model is a fuzzy model of the database (NBD) – i.e. the prior knowledge Ri about the object of research. The second fuzzy model knowledge base (NMBS) – objective knowledge OS, which underlies the decision making system (DMS). In the information and functional characteristics of these models are recognised as elements of subjective probabilities and objective probabilities derived from analysis of a large number of observations. A fuzzy database and a fuzzy knowledge base are formed, usually by interviewing an expert or group of experts. As a criterion to detect signs of the formation of PF-arms was adopted by the linguistic parameter "Degree of belonging" " with the following values of fuzzy predicates: "Very small", "Small", "Large", "Very high". The fuzzy membership values of the qualitative assessments are subjective and depend on professional skills of experts. The principles of forming the system of decision making with fuzzy information are explained Fig. 1.

 

Fig. 1. The model of formation solutions with fuzzy information

Analyze the events received at the input of the system, form the fuzzy database. The expert, using prior knowledge about the field of research, compares the input data with the reference data and decides about the assignment of events to the basis of formation of PF-weapons. The result of the decisions can vary from clearly unambiguous to neutral. Characteristic of this structure is to prevent "hopeless" solutions at the most complete realization of the positive properties of logical-mathematical and linguistic models current situations. The structure in principle aimed at the adaptive "growing" of the final decision by building a basic data PF-arms and can be adapted to the methods of computer processing.

To optimize the process of analyzing a diverse array of data that is somehow associated with the development of the studied areas, it is advisable to use an analytical model to study features of formation of the PF-arms (Fig. 2.).

Fig. 2. Analytical model for the study of features of formation of the PF-weapons and algorithm system analysis data

Model complexity is determined by the number of current interrelated transactions that define the required accuracy (completeness) of the solution.

In the first stage, rules of identification of F, which allows to judge about the correspondence of the description of the studied views of the object Opthe i R source of information and objective knowledge OS, i.e. Ri ^ O. These rules must respect the boundaries (requirements) applicable to the object Opi, and features (specific requirements) each subsequent stage of the research (STr). Similarly used and objective knowledge, understood here as information not directly related to the information image of the object Opi, but defining the rules for processing the analyzed event array (data) {Si} to extract the desired information.

The second step defines partial models and procedures Ma=f({Si}), allow to describe the desired information, to classify the investigated flow events on appropriate grounds, to carry them to a more specific purpose. Selection of stream of analyzed events is based on rules F and the results of the "coarse" selection of the 1st stage of treatment.

The third stage involves the selection of all atzelektronik events, including private models {Ma}, the most suitable options, not inconsistent with the initial information R^O and regulations F, and allows, in the end, to choose from the stream of events atzelektronik those that can be regarded as signs (harbingers) of appearance of the studied object and that complement his media image PRi .

Thus, the analytical model Mоd (IA) allows to optimize the process of investigation, to reduce it to the target direction and thus to show the shape of the PF-weapons in the form of his most complete information image on which to judge the reality (or unreality) of creation of this weapon.

 

Literature

  1. Simbirev P. N. The construction of hybrid computational tools to implement the algorithms of fuzzy inference // Information technologies in the development of complex systems. - M.: Proceedings of GosNIIAS, vol.1 (4), 1999. - S. 46-50.
  2. Prokofiev V. F. Negative aspects of the information revolution of the twentieth century /Sat. articles "Current issues of information warfare"//Under the General editorship of A. I. Gurov. - M.: Moscow Academy of complex security of entrepreneurship, 2000. S. 133-152.

 

Prokofiev V. F.

Tags: Russia


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