The cargo turnover of Suez canal constitutes trillion tons a year. In 90 when the superiority of the USA in the world and region was challenged by nobody, Washington absolutely easy suffered also existence of "a bloody mode» Saddam Hussein, and «the bloody dictator» Hafeza, and then both Bashara Asada, and enslavement of the Kurdish people. More than 10 years in region were the world.
But the world changed. In region lifted a head not obeyed hegemony of Washington Iran. And the most important thing, on a cut of millenia became clear that Russia escapes again from hands of the western colonialists and sooner or later will return. Including to the Near East.
To the beginning of 2000th years it became definitive clearly that the USA economically any more in a condition to pull on the shoulders all expenses connected with world domination. Their role in world production and trade was promptly reduced. Asia became the main centre of an economic life of a planet for the first time for hundreds years. Global military domination from very expensive task has turned to the excessive. That is why the rate on domination strategy in the world by means of soft force has been made. The world entered an era of instability and hybrid wars.
To manage the stable world with the settled borders and at absence between them of contradictions very difficult. Especially indirect methods. Therefore, for advancement of new strategy it was necessary to destroy stability: Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Ukraine, Yemen, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Tunis, Algeria, Turkey, Moldova, France, Germany, is the list of those countries which already on the skin have felt global changes. In their territory the new global world or has already come, or they have felt its hot breath. Any region, whence the USA collect formally to leave, should not leave from under their hidden control. In regions there should be conditions of origin of the several centres of forces, playing which contradictions (and serially helping which), the USA should keep the exclusive position.
Each of the centres of forces should have "insuperable" contradictions, economic potential and … if something happens could lean against a shoulder of Washington in the fair struggle against «the century enemy». The new world for the Near East prepared long. Step by step the USA created the future figures with which collected to play a Near-Eastern batch. Reconciliation with Iran (last years) became top of insidiousness from the USA. With its occurrence the ball of contradictions has accepted completed and foreign "unsoluble" kind. But it was already in the end, and all began much earlier.
It is a little history
That any of the countries did not relax and understood what not lose itself it can only constantly pressing on the neighbour has been drawn «Peters's card».
So the USA have represented the desirable Near-Eastern world: there should be some players. And anybody from them should not win definitively. Advancement to the purpose was forward and did not depend on the person of the US president:
2002. Turkey on a crest of economic elevating has generated idea neosmanskoj empires with capital in Ankara. Almost official this doctrine became in Turkey in 2002 with coming to power PSR with Redzhepom Erdoganom at the head.
2003-2006. Rout of Iraq. It is remarkable that neither Saudi Arabia, nor Turkey did not want it (whether felt, whether knew about consequences). The weakened Iraq under the direction of Saddam Hussein it was their board against Iran. Both Ankara and Riyadh have refused to give the airdromes in this war for the American aircraft.
By the way, at the very beginning of 2000 USA for the first time have tried to begin reconciliation with Iran and even have made some gestures (mitigation of sanctions on group of the humanitarian goods). As a result of destruction of Iraq on light there were two new factors: the first rudiment of Kurdistan and the Shiit government in Bagdad (finally).
It has caused first big "warp" in the Near East. The Shiit majority of Iraq, has lifted revolt against the American sovereignty (revolt of Mahdi). Iran has started to receive "overweight" which has quickly tried to consolidate. In 2005 president Ahmadinezhad has reactivated the nuclear program and has begun transformation of Iran into the powerful industrial state. It was not included into plans of the USA. And Iran "have strangled". Sanctions.
2006. The USA have achieved new sanctions which could conduct through UNSF (№1737) against Iran.
2006-2011. Long struggle for influence in Iraq which was won gradually by Teheran has begun. Has come to begin for the USA time the plan. The chain of "colour" revolutions has destroyed stability in Libya and Syria. With huge work with them have consulted in Egypt, Tunis, Algeria. For the first roles in region Turkey and Saudi Arabia which should neutralise strengthening of Iran were promptly pushed. There were Syrian and Iraq "oppositions" which through some transformations have created YOKES (it is forbidden in the Russian Federation): the new powerful centre not only terrorism in region, but also forces. So has come to weaken time a stranglehold for Iran.
Nobody should win
The main sense of the American strategy in the Near East: nobody should win. For this reason, when the victory of YOKES seemed close, they not especially were against the help of Russia. But who thought that it will be such powerful and effective. The Russian armed forces still one year ago many assotsiirovali with disorder 1990. Yes what there to speak, in 2003-05 it is ruins there was no time the strongest armed force in the world. Has passed 10 years.
Russia in Syria has shown that in the world has appeared one more superpower (has returned). Also has not simply returned, and at once has drawn on itself all Near-Eastern blanket. Contracts with Turkey, Iran and frequent trips of the Russian and Saudi diplomats each other on a visit have outright disturbed Washington. And from here and "stab in the back" (the Russian bomber brought down in November Su-24).
The Saudi princes perfectly know both about Peters's card and that to their state Washington is foreordained to drag chestnuts until while the USA on will build new Shiit Iraq and Kurdistan under the management then it will be possible to forget about kingdom. To sit and easy to wait for the end they have not wished.
It is not known, the how much subsequent actions have been agreed Turkey (Redzhep Erdogan has visited Riyadh on December, 29-30th, 2015), but execution in the first of January of known Shiit preacher Nimra An-Nimra was frank provocation.
This gesture should lead to the conflict which result without participation of external forces has been predetermined in advance. Positions of Saudi Arabia, zavjazshej in Yemen and having the big problems with the Shiit population in east provinces (the main oil-extracting provinces of kingdom), are frankly weak. In case of the open conflict because of religion when the Shiit government of Iraq cannot stand aside, Iran will very quickly knock down both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain where not only 70 % of the population practise Islam Shiit sense, but also there is a navy fleet of the USA.
It is a strong course from Riyadh. With one blow to put itself on a defeat side, and the USA before a bad choice. If Washington openly interferes with the conflict on the party sauditov, it will be a military prize of kingdom, but geopolitical defeat of the USA. If will not interfere, and Iran will go on escalation geopolitical defeat of the USA in region becomes complete.
If nobody interferes with "internal affairs" of Saudi Arabia, it will help to suppress rudiments of Shiit opposition in east provinces. And the police and army will press any indignations, in hope of intervention of Iran. In the same way as, it the Kiev mode on Donbass in the spring of 2014, in hope did that Russia will openly interfere.
It was interesting to look at professional actions of fire raisers of embassy in Teheran and rigid actions of police concerning "demonstrators" (all the same, as in Kiev: cocktails of Molotova etc.). In spite of the fact that official Teheran does not force, Riyadh lifts conflict degree.
Three spiders in one region
What to do further? By this question now just right to be set not only in Teheran, but also in Washington. It has received a stab in the back from the ally who has the day before betrayed. But that is allowed to the USA, it is not allowed to their vassal. The most reasonable for the USA now is to press on a kingdom management that they ceased to be engaged otsebjatinoj (own salvation, it is direct the Ukrainian elite any to which would not like to go on sacrifice). That is it is necessary to convince not to conduct reprisal against Shiits and to cease to force a situation.
Iran in no event cannot go on an aggravation. Saudi Arabia suffers strategic defeat and it is necessary to allow to it to die most, without having soiled itself before "world community". But the situation can become aggravated in such a manner that Teheran simply will not have a choice.
For now it is necessary to look on. World stock exchanges. It is best of markers of the future events. Yesterday and today on them it is not visible the big anxiety (all within rate). Obviously, dealers consider that while the big conflict will not be. If so the USA it was possible to find proper words for the vassals.
But, the conflict obviously is not depleted, it will decay, yet rvanet again.
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