You need to define the priorities of innovative development, and "Russia needs to realize its full potential in high-tech sectors such as modern energy, communications, space, aircraft manufacturing, have become a major exporter of intellectual services". Especially was allocated to the nuclear industry.

In 2005-2009 the state scientific-technical and innovative policy of Russia was concentrated on the implementation of the critical areas identified by the policy framework of the Russian Federation in development of science and technology for the period till 2010 and further prospect.

In the development of this document in February 2006, the Interdepartmental Commission on scientific-innovative policy at the Ministry of education and science adopted the "development Strategy of science and innovation in the Russian Federation for the period till 2015".

However, despite the measures taken, the government of the Russian Federation have not yet managed to achieve a steady increase of innovative activity of enterprises, technological upgrading of industries and increasing exports of high-tech innovative products.

So, at session of Presidium of the State Council of the Russian Federation 18.04.2008 in Dubna, it was noted unacceptable situation for the country when the share of industrial enterprises engaged in the development and implementation of technological innovations does not exceed 10 percent, and the share of innovative products in total industrial production is only 5.5 percent.

At the same meeting, were designated large-scale and real however, in the opinion of the President of Russia, guidelines for the economy of the country by 2020, including:

• the share of enterprises implementing technological innovations should grow to 40-50%;
• the share of innovative products in total industrial production is expected to increase to 20-25 percent;
• domestic expenditures on research and development should change from 1 percent to 3 percent of GDP, primarily due to the increase of expenses of private business on science.

It is obvious that the achievement of these indicators, it is impossible to maintain the level of efficiency of state regulation of economy, including industrial-innovative development.

For the successful implementation of the Strategy of Russia's development until 2020, including Industrial and innovation strategy as its core, it is necessary to analyze and resolve flaws in the current process of planning and forecasting. These include the following:

1. Forecasts of socio-economic development developed by the Ministry of economic development, serve the narrow objectives of service the budget process. In the budget law included only 3 indicators indicative plan - GDP, inflation, world oil prices.

However, a full-fledged forecasting and indicative planning should be based on a system of indicators, which includes economic, industry, financial and cost indicators, and block indicators for the development of the largest enterprises, including natural monopolies and state corporations.

The main point of using indicative planning and "industry" contracts as agreements on development between the government and private industry sectors represented the largest enterprises, is making the Strategy of Russia's development until 2020 , including Industrial-innovative strategy, fundamentally new quality, absent until now - the direct formation of the interdependence of national interests with the interests of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and other major business entities. These include the largest enterprises, financial-industrial groups, natural monopolies and state corporations. "Industry-wide" contract as the main type of public-private partnerships, effective method of industrial and innovative policy of the state widely used all around the world but, unfortunately, the economic and legal framework of such contracts in Russia does not exist. "Industry" contracts define the mutual obligations of the state and of enterprises, States and entire industries, and significantly improve the efficiency of management of the industry. These contracts are developed in foreign countries, sector-specific advice on innovation, formed of representatives of government, business and experts.

Reference: Interesting and effective was the use of "sectoral" contract in France as a method of state regulation of the automotive industry in 1957, the Contract linked the interests of the state and the automotive industry. The latter, the individual companies took on the obligation to export up to 2/3 of the cars produced in excess of the plans. A similar tool of industrial policy of the state has currently are "Joint plans of action of business and government in Australia, which were first used in 1997 and is part of the strategy of the Australian Government's "Investing for growth". In accordance with the "plans", the business itself forms an effective business environment by minimizing and maximizing the effectiveness of direct budget expenditures.

The government provides assistance only through the solution of the following problems: attracting investment, regulating market access, export promotion, regional development, vocational education, development of innovation infrastructure and R & d support. In the UK an important institution for coordination of development and implementation of policies to improve competitiveness of steel industry councils on innovation and growth, established at the initiative of the Ministry of trade and industry. Such sectoral councils were established in 2001-2005 in the aerospace sector, electronics manufacturing, biotechnology, automotive industry, chemical industry, production of materials, etc.

In accordance with the indicators and contracts branch" entities, as well as the subjects of the Russian Federation should be provided with the information necessary for the development of strategic plans of its development. It should be noted that such a system of indicative management of economy have already been created in the Republic of Tatarstan. It seems appropriate to use it and to build a similar system for Russia as a whole.

2. Currently, the Ministry of economic development uses the most simple approach to the prediction of all types of forecasts, based on the transfer of the dependency characteristic of the past and present, for the future. It is unlikely that this process can be compared even to the initial stage of strategic planning.

The most important long-term forecast, which is currently missing, should be a forecast of scientific-technical progress and on its basis developed a program of scientific and technical progress, providing breakthroughs in priority scientific and technical directions. The program should Refine the list of critical technologies and existing priority directions of scientific-technological development.

3. Not developed the most important part of long-term strategy - the General scheme of development and placing of productive forces (hereinafter - the Scheme).

It seems appropriate to highlight the territorial unit as part of the overall planning system in the form of General scheme. The task of the General scheme is the determination of which enterprise and where you need to build (in market terms is impossible), and the rationale for the development of certain industries in the region, based on national priorities.

4. It is unacceptable for reasons of energy security the lack of development of fuel and energy balances of the Federal districts and constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which makes ineffective the existing fuel and energy balance of Russia and the General scheme of placing of objects of electric power industry till 2030.

5. Special attention should be paid to the order of development indicative plan for 5 years. It needs to include the following milestones:

1. Regional authorities submit to the Government materials priorities in development of economy of regions.
2. On the basis of the received materials, the Government is developing a preliminary draft plan.
3. The government negotiates a preliminary draft of the plan in the ministries and submits it to the Interdepartmental Commission on the elaboration of a strategy for long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.
4. The government prepares a final version of the plan, agreeing the key indicators with the regions, with the most important economic entities; concludes "industry contracts".
5. Indicative plan for the next 5 years and long-term strategy until 2020 approved by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

Thus, five-year indicative plan as a stage development Strategy of Russia until 2020 and the Industrial-innovative strategy acquires legislative power is implemented and the most important principle of the separation of powers in relation to strategic documents of development of Russia: stop the current negative practice, when the Government itself sets the objectives, evaluates itself and their implementation. Legislative approval of these documents provides a report of the Government before the state Duma about results of their performance. The draft resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation "On the development of a five-year indicative plan of economic and social development of the Russian Federation up to 2015", developed by the author, given in the Appendix.

6. It is necessary to integrate the Strategy of national security of Russia in the Strategy of Russia's development until 2020. In industrialized countries, the initial phase of development long-term development strategy begins with two predictions: prediction of national security and General economic forecast. Particularly important for Russia, provided an analysis of the possible dynamics of the indicators of production of essential goods and services compared to the minimum acceptable level (the indicators of energy security, food security, import dependency for major industry sectors, as productive capacity, etc.).

7. The existing system of projections defined by the Federal law "On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation." In accordance with the law, at the Federal level are developed short-term (annually) medium term (3-5 years) and long term ( 10 years) forecasts on the basis of which is preparing the Concept of socio-economic development (long-term), medium-term development program (every year) and a draft budget for the next year.

The current practice of implementation of this law revealed the following major weaknesses:

1. Given the order of the President of the Russian Federation following the meeting of the Presidium of the State Council of the Russian Federation April 18, 2008 the government of the Russian Federation jointly with the Russian Academy of Sciences to ensure the development of the forecast of scientific and technological development of Russia in the long term (up to 2030.) By order of the Government of the Russian Federation of 17 November 2008 No. 1662-R approved the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2020 (hereinafter - the Concept). Thus, formally made the provisions of the aforementioned Federal law, but the practical significance of the long-term forecast and the Concept centred on the recommendations. Of a recommendatory nature of the Concept and says the level of approval (Executive Order - not even the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation), and the content of the order of the Government on the basis of which the Concept affirms: "the Federal Executive bodies and Executive bodies of state power of subjects of the Russian Federation to be guided by the provisions of the Concept for developing program documents, plans and targets of its activities".

In this regard, there are concerns that long-term planning of development of Russia will stop at the level of Concept and prognosis. Moreover, the Federal law "On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation" does not provide for the adoption of a full-scale long-term development strategy of Russia and indicative plans for 5 years as its main stages. The author has analyzed observations of the departments of the economic block of the Government of the Russian Federation adopted in first reading in September 2000, a draft Federal law On introducing amendments and addenda to the Federal law "On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, where the question was raised about the need for indicative planning. In the future, this bill was rejected.

It is obvious that the draft law needed significant improvement. However, its main idea – to develop an indicative development plan, and, on its basis, long-term socio-economic strategy – is a crucial goal of economic policy.

2. A dangerous misconception is the confusion between "plan" and "forecast". In particular, among the major comments on the draft Federal law On introducing amendments and addenda to the Federal law "On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation" was the following: in the text, replace the words "indicative plan" for the word "forecast". Accordingly, it was declared unreasonable to provide for the approval process and execution of forecasts, although forecast does not require approval, anywhere in the world forecasts are not approved. Approved plans.

The prediction is just the initial stage of planning.

The main objectives of forecasting: 1) the scientific analysis of social, economic and scientific-technical processes and trends, assessment of current situation and identification of key problems of economic development; 2)evaluation of the effects of the identified trends into the future and anticipate new economic situations, new problems that require resolution; 3)identification of possible alternatives for development in the future for a reasonable choice of a particular development opportunities and making optimal decisions. The forecast outlines areas and opportunities within which can be set realistic goals and objectives, identifies the direction, which must become the object of drafting and adopting planning decisions. It examines active options impact on objective factors for future development. The projections are preliminary, variational in nature, but their horizon is not limited to the planning period. The forecasts serve as the initial material for selection of development goals in a certain planning period.

Significant difference of the plan from the forecast is that it needs to be qualitatively unambiguous, focused on achieving the goals already elected and essentially reveals only one quality variant of their achievement. In this regard, the forecast can be assessed as a preliminary stage of the plan. It does not set any specific tasks, but includes the material required to develop them.

For the organization of works on creation of system of strategic planning is appropriate:

1.To determine the main directions of the Ministry of economic development: ensuring the implementation of all stages of the development of the five-year indicative plan and long-term strategies up to 2020, including Industrial-innovative strategy; the development and implementation of "industry" contracts; cooperation with the Russian Academy of Sciences on the development of long-term scientific and technological forecast and corresponding program; development of proposals for legislative support of implementation of the Strategy of Russia's development until 2020, including measures for innovation development.

An important task of the Ministry of economic development should be the preparation of the development strategy of Russia until 2020 and indicative plan for 5 years for consideration in the Russian Parliament.

2. Under the overall guidance of the Ministry of economic development, need to develop a macro-structural model of development of economy of Russia for the period up to 2014 and on its basis – a five-year indicative plan.

To perform this work must be brought to the Council for location of productive forces (SOPS), Institute for economic forecasting, Institute of Economics and industrial engineering Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences, Central Economics and mathematics Institute of RAS etc.

3. In order to ensure coordination of work on the strategic program of socio-economic development of Russia , including the Industrial - innovative strategy, it seems advisable to create an Interagency Commission to develop a strategy for long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation under the Government of Russian Federation including representatives of the interested ministries and departments, largest companies, including JSC Russian Railways, RAO "UES", OAO "Gazprom", the management of state corporations, representatives of regions, business, Russian Academy of Sciences.

4. The task of developing Industrial-innovative strategy, it is advisable to entrust the Committee on science and innovation under the Government of the Russian Federation. Reforming the system of Executive power in order to implement the strategy of innovative development of Russia is an essential obligation. The establishment of the Committee on science and innovation under the Government of the Russian Federation on the basis of the existing Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (of its units, which are responsible for science and Agency for science and innovation will allow to expand the capabilities of the bodies of Executive power responsible for science and innovation development in terms of their responsibility and the successful coordination of all interested ministries and departments. Thus, it seems appropriate to devote a separate structure of the Ministry of education of the Russian Federation.

The statement of the problem of formation of effective Strategy of development of Russia on the basis of the proposed methods, which give the possibility of its translation from the stage to a greater extent declarative soft law instrument to a stage of effective long-term strategy, interlinked with the economic interests of the regions, corporations, industries, without exaggeration, gives the possibility of implementing our country's long-term economic policy sovereignty, contribute to real progress in the field of technological modernization of the economy and neutralize the effect of the externally given economic and political rivals Russia negative trends and development scenarios.

Ekaterina Popova

assistant to head of presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, the head of the Interdepartmental working group on innovative legislation under the presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, Chairman of the RF CCI Committee for promotion of modernization and technological development of Russia's economy.

Source: http://www.tpprf.ru/ru/committee/kommodernizacia/kom30_analitik/

Tags: Russia , strategy , forecasts , national idea