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Who is responsible for a false prediction? Problems and prospects of analytical activities in Russia
Material posted: -Publication date: 13-10-2012

It is recognized that the key geopolitical events of recent years, such as global financial and economic crisis and the "Arab spring" was outside the field of view of analysts of all levels. According to numerous sources, the decision makers, did not receive warnings of the imminent onset of events that dramatically change the situation in the world.

Despite the rapid development of information technology, analytical work remains an art. Analytical ability in man to develop is difficult, if not laid down by nature – there is even a term "analytical mind", which is characterized by a predisposition to practice analytical activities. But such people make forecasts for the decision makers, at all levels of economic and state management without regard to ownership of enterprises?


General context

With regard to domestic situations, it is not much better – prepared various agencies of economic and scientific-technical forecasts of development of a country is often not easy to match, but be diametrically opposed. As a result, managers at all levels have to make decisions without relying on estimates and reliable forecasts. The result of such decisions is extremely low – almost two-thirds of them are ineffective. At the highest political level this has been recognized not once, when there was a wasteful, ineffective spending of budgetary funds. The situation is most clearly manifested in the field of public procurement and defence procurement – oddly enough, but the leadership of the relevant departments have no understanding of how to spend the budget. It suggests that existing approaches to the organization of analytical work in different departments do not meet the needs of the country's leadership. The attempt to rely in the preparation of strategies and concepts on a wide expert community today also does not give effective results as it is the expert community is not formed, and often unprofessional – there is no clear criterion for assigning a specialist to the category of "graduate analyst".

The situation is no better in the private sector – analytical structure of many financial and industrial companies has not proved effective and necessary units. As a result, they were reduced in the staffing structures of the companies after adverse developments associated with the global financial crisis. The situation itself is paradoxical, decreased primarily analytical units, which were to analyze the situation and propose options for crisis management.

Today, when the acute phase of the crisis is over, there are new tasks of business development, the question of analytical structures has emerged again but in a new light – now we need to build anew structure, reduced two years ago, and to equip them with new analytical technologies.

Will not deal with the issue when the strategy of development of domestic companies develop attracted foreign experts. The question of in whose interests are these analysts, and what the results of the assessments, they lay in the strategy, remains open.


Need something to do...

Thus, it is possible to identify a number of problems in analytical work that require immediate discussion and development of common view on their decision.

  1. Obviously, there is the problem of forming adequate estimates of state and forecasts for socio-economic development of the country. The events associated with the financial crisis showed that the existing system based on the structure of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation, and also departmental analytical centers are not allowed to receive prompt and clear picture. Requires new modern approaches to the solution of problems of organization of analytical activity.
  2. Over the years in each Ministry and Department has accumulated its own experience in organizing and conducting analytical work. It in law enforcement agencies, but is unavailable due to departmental limitations. Incompleteness of information about the methodology used, the impossibility of inter-institutional experiences lead to inconsistencies prepared for policy makers, estimates and projections as a result of the adoption of ineffective decisions. The necessary mechanisms for interagency cooperation in preparing the estimates and projections for government control of the country, as well as for large businesses
  3. Today, virtually every state structure is composed of analytical units, however, the existing range of specialties, which is training young professionals in Universities, does not have clear concepts about the specialty analyst. Often, positions in the analytical structures hold the staff without special training on the part of organization and conducting analytical work. Necessary changes in the training system for the training of specialists in "the analyst" - this means that the appropriate state professional and educational standards.
  4. Today, employees and managers of analytical units are not able to get information about the latest advances in analytical methods both in Russia and abroad. It is the result of a lack of analytical communities, of a "trade Union analysts". There is no single information sources (Internet resources, print editions), from which analysts could obtain information on new analytical technologies. It is necessary to form a professional community of analysts and developers of modern analytical technologies.
  5. Today to occupy the position of chief accountant in the company is only a person trained and responsible for their decisions. But this is not in relation to the analytical units, although their product is not less important for the company, as the results of their work are taken for crucial company decisions. However, to take up the post of head of the analytical unit may, almost, any employee meeting the formal requirements for the head. The necessary qualification requirements for heads of analytical departments.
  6. Today, employees of analytical departments, preparing forecasts and scenarios of possible development of the situation, are not responsible for inadequate predictions, despite the significant damage that may be incurred by the company from its activities. Moreover, the analyst or expert may be called any person, who expressed his own opinion on the issue. It is not possible to judge the validity and competence made the withdrawal. It is necessary to create an effective system of training and retraining, and attestation of professional analysts, which will significantly increase the responsibility for which they are estimates, projections and recommendations.


Instead of a conclusion

Thus, it is obvious that in the field of analytical work today there was a difficult and ambiguous situation. It is common today to say that we create our own DARPA or the RAND, but the question is more complex and much more serious: and what is the responsibility of the structures, albeit bearing the sonorous names? I believe that there is something to think about. And make decisions in this area must and the sooner, the darkness is less irresponsible predictions and estimates will be prompted analysts Woe...

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