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A new research project aimed at finding people who are able to predict world events better than CIA experts
Material posted: Publication date: 10-04-2014

Experts in psychology and national security trying to find among ordinary Americans "supererogation" — that is, people who are able to predict world events better than do the intelligence services.

In the project "Sober calculation" already involved three thousand people. All of them expressed their views on a range of current events and tried to predict their results and consequences.

The experts admitted that they were extremely "surprised" by the accuracy of the forecasts, although the main source of information the majority of participants served by Google.

Participants were asked to give a forecast for a number of world events, including the episode when the Egyptian military with tanks stopped in front of the presidential Palace in Cairo, Egypt.

In order to participate in the project, just fill out the form on the website. Is a plus bachelor's degree, however, the lack of such education is not an obstacle. The main requirement for candidates — curiosity and interest in the development of world events. Then the project participants shall answer the questions once a week or two are published on the website and send your predictions in electronic form.

<blockquote_note>Elaine rich — one of the participants of the project. She believes that the key to success is the absence of any pressure. "By profession I am an ordinary pharmacist," said she.

"I don't depend on anybody, nobody knows my name, and I in any case don't sacrifice your professional reputation. It is this anonymity allows me to freely Express what I feel is right" .

According to one report, the predictions made by the participants of the project "Sober judgment" is quite often closer to the truth than the forecasts of experts of the intelligence serviceswho have access to classified information. Those who are somehow familiar with the results of the experiments shocked by their success and predictive power of ordinary people.

<blockquote_fact>One of the participants admitted to not uses anything but Google, in order to come to true conclusions and to make accurate predictions.

Say that the experiment has already allowed us to assemble a team of "superprocesses" , whose forecasts are 30 percent more accurate than the forecasts of intelligence officers who passed special training and have access to classified information.

The experiment is conducted on the basis of the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Berkeley (California) and lasts for three years, and the recruitment of new members is still underway.

Lead the project psychologists Philip Tetlock (the author of the book "Professional political judgement" ), Barbara mellers (a specialist in the field of forecasting and decision-making) and Moore (specialist self-reliance).

Participants expressed their predictions associated with a number of contemporary issues, including the prospects for economic development.

<blockquote_fact>in addition, the team working in this project experts included experts from psychologists, economists, statisticians, interface designers and representatives of computer science.

The project "good judgment" is part of another larger project called " Aggregate assessment of the work of collective intelligence" and is supported by the U.S. Agency for advanced study in the field of intelligence.

The aim of the project is formulated as "a significant increase in the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts for a wide range of events, using the development of advanced technologies that will give more weight to the judgments and to combine the conclusions of the analysts" .

The project "good judgment" is not classified and, according to the researchers, the results will be published in scientific journals and available to everyone.


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