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Some approaches to the identification of not previously identified threats to national security
Material posted: Grinyaev SergeyPublication date: 15-02-2018

One of the most important, not having to date, the precise apparatus to address is the problem of detecting and identifying new threats to national security.

The modern condition of information-analytical activities, techniques and approaches to the organization and implementation of practical work of analysts shows that to achieve a substantial practical significance of the obtained end product in detecting new, not previously identified threats, often fails. This is illustrated by the practical experience of recent years: in fact, no serious geopolitical or geo-economic crisis, which was the visible embodiment of the new security threats that had not been previously predicted by the analytical structures.

So it was with the "Arab spring" - a serious geopolitical crisis that resulted in the change of the pattern not only of the Middle East and North Africa, but the world at large, creating a radically new subject – the Islamic state[1]. The same can be said about the "Shale revolution" that led to the change in the pattern of global hydrocarbon market.

Today, undoubtedly, such a vector of development of the geopolitical and geo-economic environment is the cryptocurrency trend in the global economy, which is still being developed and which threatens very serious, fundamental changes in the existing economic structure.

How should you organize the work, to be able at least, if not to see the moment of emergence of new threats, we feel the danger to the country and get plenty of time to try to develop and establish a system of measures, compensating the negative impact of the new terms.

Own experience of analytical work shows that most existing approaches based on the collection, collation and analysis of retrospective data does not allow any close approach to the question of predicting future events. Each in their own example it is easy to make – just remember yourself 3-5 years ago and remember how I saw my future then after 3-5 years. The vast majority of cases, the picture will be, if not diametrically opposed, then at least very different from reality. Unfortunately, previous experience, only a very few can contribute to understanding how events will develop in the future. In the past there is almost no information about the future

However, from the accumulated previous experience, yet there are undoubted benefits – it allows you to determine the system of axioms of life and of the processes, the violation of which is extremely unlikely in the future.

The second important point of possessing knowledge of past events – the understanding that something new is always shown in "extraordinary" events.

Here the term "eccentric" describes the event as something that stands out, typical of the current "real" event of the background. The reason for this is that there is a lot of information that do not fit into the prevailing model of the world.

A good example is the emergence of crypto-currencies that dramatically distracting from the overall background of financial and economic events of the period 5-8 years ago. The coming to power in the US team D. trump can also be regarded in a similar way.

For generalization and systematization of analytical work to identify new security threats, it is useful to turn to one of modern concepts of organization and conducting of the business "Blue ocean", and try to use it for formation of an effective tool of prediction.

Why her? Because this concept is aimed at finding new, rather than learning and developing old.

The main thesis of this approach – all business strategy (in our case, the strategy of national development) are divided into two large groups, forming the "red" and "blue" oceans.

The characteristics of the "red" of the strategies – fighting with an opponent on a previously generated field, clarification of details, quantitative and qualitative steps in a predetermined space. In our case, it is a struggle for markets, the use of economic sanctions, political agreements, military intervention and other pressure. As a rule, threats to "red" strategies good enough "deal" traditional approaches to information-analytical work: regression and correlation methods, etc. to Understand the conditions of emergence of crisis in the co-ordinates of the events is quite simple. At this level, and formed the traditional structures and systems security and respond to threats.

The characteristics of the "blue" policies – formation of its own rules of the game, a win, not to quantitative and qualitative changes, and paradigm shift. This group of strategies is of particular interest because it formed the threat, with no identity established on the "red" level safety system.

The most striking manifestation of blue ocean strategy in the business activities of Apple Inc. in the beginning of the smartphone era. Actually this era is closely connected with technological innovations implemented by the Apple Corporation.

Of the same rank and appearance on the geopolitical map of the world "terrorist state"... on the one hand – it seems to be a terrorist organization and apply the previously developed techniques and methods of countering terrorist activity, and the other is a state, with all its main features, including its own monetary system, anthem, flag etc. And here the traditional mechanisms do not work so effectively.

Thus, the key challenge for predictive Analytics is in identifying conditions of the origin of the "blue ocean" in any field of human activities.

Consider the example used by the team of our professionals.

So the old, outdated, but a systematic knowledge allows us to create some "world system": a set of axioms and a reference system including a coordinate axis of "good-bad" and some metric.

Among the axioms, consider the following:

  1. People are vulnerable biological creature subject to death from a variety of factors: disease, hunger, extremes of climate, physical damage of the organs; and man is afraid of death, afraid for their loved ones…
  2. A person is most effective as producing intellectual products mechanism;
  3. Earth is the only planet suitable for human life heavenly body;
  4. The natural resources of the planet are limited.

Based on these theses it is possible to argue that the struggle for natural resources – is an integral essence of life on earth. Ie resources require protection. Options for creating "blue ocean" within the framework of this axiom lies in the fact that someone who can't fight for possession of the natural resources of the Earth will be forced to look for an alternative among the artificial or new resources that solve the same problems of development.

The third thesis is the most significant to date, and allows you to say with confidence that the current level of development of weapons and protection to speak about the global war makes no sense, except for some "black card", when events spiral out of control. The global elite are clearly aware that a total war will lead to the death of all mankind or the living conditions on Earth will become unfit and will not permit its outbreak, which was said not to exclude, for example, technical failures of weapons systems, etc.

However, together with the first axiom, it suggests that the struggle for resources will be fought, not totally, but selectively: terror for this nice tool; good and epidemics, famines, climatic events; sanctions, new rules for old games, etc.

What events go astray from the General information number and may indicate the formation of a new "blue ocean", generating in turn new not previously identified security threats?

Many of them. We propose to dwell only on one string.

In the first years of the twenty-first century, the media began to appear information about the number of countries carrying out experiments for the extraction of gazogidratov (working hypothesis: resources are scarce but they are needed and to fight for them is dangerous, so look for new). Reserves of hydrocarbons are estimated as highly significant on the bottom of the ocean.

At the turn of 2010, only Japan has developed a technology for industrial production of gazogidratov. This was the signal that all the World's oceans, not just the shelf, will soon become a field of struggle.

It is obvious that a rising China is today one of the most active researchers in the search for possible strategies of the "blue ocean": China is extremely important extension of the living space, and on land, few prospects are already there (with the exception of Africa). Therefore, it is obvious that China is one of the objectives of the development of the oceans.

In 2014, in the media there is information about the development in China of projects in the city-the Islands for permanent residence of the Chinese colony in the waters of the World ocean. Then the project seems fantastic and unrealizable, and does not cause special attention of analysts.

In 2017 China publishes information that has developed and put into practice a number of technologies for the creation of huge floating platforms.

China commissioned the world's largest floating drilling platform "the Blue whale I". About this summer of 2017, reported the state of the Chinese TV channel China Central Television (CCTV). According to him, the platform is comparable to a football field. "The blue whale I" has a drilling system that can reach the seabed at a depth of 3 658 m and deepening to 15 240 m in the earth's crust. Its weight is 200 tons

Accordingly, the alarm rang in 2008, when the industrial technology of extraction of gazogidratov. From this moment involved hours of responding to the emerging threat of competition for resources. There was an urgent need to start turning the blue ocean into the red, by the formation of an international system of control measures etc. However this has not happened yet.

18 may 2017, media reported that Chinese experts have established full production of gas hydrates from undersea deposits. In an official statement called the incident "a historic breakthrough" that will affect the development of the entire energy sector. Development of the field, the so-called "combustible ice", began on may 10. For eight days, from deposits located at depths greater than 1200 m from the sea surface and about 200 m from the surface of the bottom, was received more than 120 thousand mThree gas with a methane content of up to 99.5%.

12 Jul 2017 speaking at the XIII Forum of Day of navigation, opened in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, Deputy head of the State Oceanographic administration of China Shi Qingfeng said that the sea is an important area in the development of a new plant for new growth of China, which has an increasingly bright spot in the overall development of the country. Shi Qingfeng said that the plan for the 13th five-year plan on development of national marine economy was determined by General ideas of the industry and development goals and important tasks, described basic preliminary plan for the expansion of the space marine economy.

He also said that the next step will be the improvement of the development of accommodation of the Maritime economy. China needs, relying on science and technology, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological results to raise the level of transformation of industry sectors such as sea fishing, processing, boat manufacturing, the exploration of the sea. At the same time the aim is to develop new industries, particularly, manufacturing of marine engineering equipment, marine biofarmaceutica, desalination and resource development to increase the level of standardization in the Maritime industry, strengthen the international competitiveness of China in the field of Maritime industry, strengthen appropriate services, and to encourage financial institutions providing various financial services in the marine industry.

Thus, China took the lead in a new segment, formed a "blue ocean" and in three years moved the process towards the formation of a "red" ocean is the creation of a system of measures and rules, but in the directions set by Beijing.

This was confirmed by, for example, an event that occurred on 22 September 2017, when China and 12 island countries agreed to strengthen cooperation in the field of blue economy and environmental protection of the Islands with the aim of achieving sustainable development.

China has said it will work with island States in the sphere of protection of the ocean and of the implementation of the sustainable development goals the UN said the head of the State Oceanographic administration of China Wang Hong, at a round table at Ministerial level on "China - island state", devoted to issues such as sustainable economic development, environmental protection, climate change, disaster prevention and reduction in their number, as well as desalination of sea water. The meeting was attended by representatives from countries such as Antigua and Barbuda, Samoa, Cape Verde, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

Grinaev S. N.

 

[1] Banned in Russia as a terrorist organization.


Comments:

нетбез-Ж+ответада (07-03-2018 14:03:44)

Добрый день Администратор! "Условия зарождения «голубого океана» в любой отрасли человеческой деятельности", также к "голубому океану" можно отнести деятельность Илона Маска и его космического агенства.


нетбез-Ж+ответада (07-03-2018 14:03:56)

"Итак, прежнее, уже устаревшее, но систематическое знание позволяет нам сформировать некоторую «систему мира»: набор аксиом и систему отсчета, включающую координатные оси развития «хорошо-плохо» и некоторую метрику." Уважаемый администратор! К сожалению с двоичным подходом "нет-да" остался век двадцатый. Двадцать первый век будет работать по "метрике" троичной. Только троичная система счисления способна сформировать наиболее полную систему координат. "нет, без ответа, да" - только в таком виде. Где "без ответа" и есть Ваш "голубой океан"! "Без ответа" - это фактор времени, которое необходимо от зарождения процесса до его проявления. Есть и другие свойства "без ответа"...



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