Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Science and Society / Analytical work: the experience of Russian and foreign experts / Other
Watered-electrical engineering. Modeling of socio-political processes electrical circuits
Material posted: Publication date: 24-01-2019
Electrical engineering and politics. Science is developing one-sidedly, for example, electrical engineering has a fundamental base and an excellent application modeling tools, and the policy is devoid of all this. Someday, humanity will create a watered-technique (first polit-physics) and all political processes will be as clear and predictable as electricity.

Try to make borrowing and to look at political processes "eyes" and the laws of electrical engineering, and then apply for modeling political processes known to the simulation of electrical circuits. Future "Ohm's Law / political Kirgofa for digital circuits" will differ from their prototypes with their own meta-model that interprets the laws of society to the relevant laws of nature that exist objectively, i.e. independently of the perceptions of the person about them.

With politics yet everything is different: even the ancient Greek stage in the formation of a "science of politics" — not passed (the initial stage of digitization policy).

Watered-electrical engineering — one of the directions of digitalization policy when using simulation modelling of social-political processes comes circuitry, i.e. using a conventional visual simulation of electrical circuits in the simulation of the socio-political processes (events, crises, catastrophes).

The approach is demonstrated on a simplified model of the consumer society, and as the simulator of electronic circuits used falstad.

Introduction


Research plan:

A) the Selected object of study socio-political nature

B) an interpretation of the laws of the object of study in the laws of electrical engineering (metamodel)

C) Built model fragment the object of study, the model is demonstrated by means of simulation of electronic circuits falstad

Object of research – consumer society (consumer society)
More lucidly spoken about Erich Fromm
If one of the residents at least city-polmilliona wants to look at consumer society, it is enough to look out the window.

If the socio-political processes (events) can be interpreted and represented by the metamodel, obeying similar laws of electrical processes, the policy can be described using the rules (theory) electrical engineering, starting from Ohm's law. This option modelling political and social processes will allow the use of reliable, studied and mathematically rigorous mechanisms, and most importantly ready-made simulation tools.

The proposed metamodel "Watered-electrical engineering. Consumer society" is based on empirical laws (laws which have their source in experience based on direct observations) consumer society and accurately reflects what is happening in this society processes. More precisely: based on "direct observations" of the author, because you could not find a suitable well-known (published) a mathematical model of the companies.

Despite the fact that the model of consumer society is simplified under the proposed instrument (simulator) and the metamodel it can be detailed and supplemented with quantitative parameters that reflect the real statistics, the situation on the market, the parameters of the budget, taxes, the change in the rate of the national currency, etc.

To study the laws of electrical engineering has a variety of simulators of electronic circuits. Examples executed in falstad (java applet), the text given the direct links on the resulting circuit (without duplication), if the links do not work — check the installation of the Java machine, try a different browser, etc.

Important visual simulator process because it allows you to demonstrate "the physics of the process," General approach, the metamodel and to demonstrate the dynamics of a specific process. Look at the "bare formula" and system of equations Kirgofa is not the best way to quickly understand the model, allowing, through the equivalent current and voltage to determine the current political trends and tensions of society.

1 Metamodel


Electrical values, AMP, VOLT, OHM is interpreted socio-political Mechatronica:

  • the current amperage (A) = force any action, for example, the consumption of goods (by analogy — the level of current consumption) of consumption or the volume of protests on the social discontent from the reduction in consumption.
  • voltage (V) = the level of social tension in society, i.e. "protest" movement. The tension in the society as a potential, able to transform into kinetic energy in the form of protest.
  • resistance (Ohms) = resistance of the transition from a potential threat into practice, activities. Opposition to the transition of the accumulated potential in the current (movement of electrons as the movement of people), for example, in an open protest movement.


The laws of electrical engineering to lead will not: moreover, they are known and objective, they are already incorporated in any circuit simulator.

Some laws of the consumer society (quite short so only had a General idea):

  1. Requests for consumption always grow, because you always want "more and more" (be sure to consume today more than yesterday).
  2. Requests for consumption (standby consumption) is always more than the ability to actually "consume" in the first place due to budget constraints on purchases / services.
  3. The difference between a request for consumption (expectation) and the budget (reality) transformirovalsya in protest. The power of a consumer society — as "expected power consumption" means "the presence in society of total power" and consists of "power consumption" (the power to consume goods and services) and the strength of the protest movement.


The main irritant in society is the inability to consume as much as planned (expected). Stimulus creates tension and depending on the behavior of the authorities there are various ways of reducing stress: the extinction of tension by controlling the forces of protest or increase the budget for consumption.

2 basic model


The basic model of the consumer society consists of three main outline (outline trio).

2.1 Outline of consumption


In the simulation-based socio-political model of the consumer Society is the "circuit of consumption" (sometimes the only one).

Consider a simplified representation of the "process of consumption": a generator (source) desires is the contractor (seller) desires.

In its simplest form it looks like this:



The main force of the consumer society – in effect to "consume", so the source of power initially and will be "the strength of the desire to consume". As the source of desires (generator) desires to use the power source.

Gaelic

Because of the desire to consume will show on a simple example. Take not a big and complex society as a whole, and its a small one family and not all family needs, and only part of the car.

And not even real needs, and branding — because it is the basic needs of a consumer society, because the society of consumption is not at the foot of Maslow's pyramid.

For example, the family has a need to buy (to have) two "big black jeep" (LBH). LBH, for example, Gaelic — will be used as a unit of consumption (the symbol of the consumer society), because the family and to go nowhere (don't need), and if it is necessary once a month, the road is very good asphalt.

Wisely call it "irrational consumer culture", i.e., G does not need to overcome the terrain (solutions to functional problems), and as a demonstration of social status (success, i.e., to solve non-functional problems).

We assume (for example) that in 2013 taxes and prices were "satisfactory," i.e., fully suited our needs (expectations, aspirations) in the "Two-G". Was and a sufficient budget.

Scheme "Revealed — satisfied"

Scheme "Revealed — satisfied" with comments:



Sets the current generator generates a need corresponding to the value of two "big black jeep", ie 2хДБЧ or 2A. May also be called: "the power of consumer society", "power needs" (similar to current). The diagram shows: Want two LBH (the volume of desires, public inquiry), "the power of desire" = 2A.

Define "satisfactory" symbol "ammeter", which reflects the value of the current in the circuit of consumption (2A).

Since all requests for consumption in society are satisfied, that all "consumers are happy" and social tension is equal to zero. However, this ideal situation (although it may be real, for example, for the elite category of High End).

For society in General and family — there is always a limited budget, see the second law of consumption: consumption (standby consumption) is always more than the ability to actually "consume".

2.2 Outline of the protest


Since there are limitations on the budget, the desire does not coincide with the possibilities (see the second and third law of consumption).

Suppose that instead of two "large and black" in the budget could only buy one LBH.

Current real consumption (the budget) has decreased in two times, and "the Power to consume consumer society" has not changed: "I want two big black jeep":

  • Ip (current, amount) = 2 A (2хБЧД).
  • Ib (net budget) = 1 And (1хБЧД).


To simulate a limited budget – is selected corresponding to the resistance value of constant current consumption (the volume of purchases within budget, Ib).

There was a "complicated" situation: the need to consume or the "Power to consume consumer society" was twice the possibilities (the available budget). "Tighten their belts" or to submit to the call of "no money but you keep" — to a consumer society — not an option on it and the consumer society.

To simulate the situation of exceeding desires on the budget will be subject to the third law of consumption. In model add the contour of protest, because only consumption and capable of protest the consumer society.

The current in the circuit of the protest begins to flow (the presence of the protest movement — currents in society) – when there is a problem with allocated to the consumption budget, and with budget problems always arise (unlimited wants and limited resources). "To consume is impossible to rebel" — the comma puts the consumer.

Scheme "a Limited budget"

Half of the "forces" companies migrated to the contour of the protest: the current value of needs = 2 A (amount to = two jeeps), the current value of real consumption (net budget for goods, in this case 1хБЧД) = 1 A.

A doubling of prices for LBH could happen only due to the double jump rate of the national currency, for example, in 2014 there was a budget for two LBH (Scheme "Revealed — satisfied"), a year has passed (the rate jumped), and suddenly came to the Scheme "Limited budget".

In addition to the $ rate, nothing has changed: the jeep of the same model, wages in rubles (budget consumption), and of course the query in two jeeps. Social stress did not increase (remained the same), because "pairs outrage at the outrage" released without using the contour of the protest.

However, for a more accurate representation of the situation is required to show the contour of the protest element of the "lamp of wrath." We will limit the power consumption of the circuit. Limits have any elements, both electric and socio-political.

In the falstad simulator: to Draw. Remedies and informational items. Add a light bulb. The value of the lamp power, for example, 30 watts.

Scheme "a Limited budget. Lamp"



With the introduction of the limit circuit on the power of growing power: social tension in the society.

The resistance of the bulb (resistor) reflects the resistance of the protest, for example, forces prevent protests in the form of state propaganda and intimidation, the forces of counter-protest (the resistance of the protest) — in the form of power structures (forces), including the police and guard.

The light bulb, "the implementer of protest" (anger) advises the slider to the "Nominal Power". The power lamp shows the potential of the protest movement. When the value of the slider to observe changes in the level of social tension in society (voltmeter).

2.3 the Third circuit, the revolutionary


The third contour from the position of electrical equipment — breakdown, but from the perspective of policy — revolutionary.
Increasing the current (power source, i.e. the power of customer expectations) or resistance to a protest, unless there is a "steam release" in one of the circuits (the lamp of anger or by increasing budget), the diagram demonstrates the growth of tension in society (in General outline).

Imminent discharge of the situation (détente) simulated cell type "spark gap", in fact, retaining the "spark of revolution" — like "break" consider socio-political system (the consumption society).

More precisely, a specific system of organization of society that contains the configuration rules, laws, taxes, limits, budgets, and other characteristics of monetary policy or the characteristics of power and ideological (through the Ministry of "truth") control of the company.

Increasing the "demands of society for consumption" (increasing the current value of "idle consumption" on the power supply) and adding to the diagram of a simple spark gap (spark gap in the air) and setting it on the breakdown voltage, it is possible to simulate two situations.
With limited or even "muted" loop of consumption, for example, high taxes or on the contrary, low incomes, happens one of the situations:

A) a lamp power of "anger" is sufficient and "venting" through the contour of the protest (or rather the loop "controlled power protest") protects society from a dangerous level of social tension in which can happen a radical change.

B) if not "venting" is insufficient (i.e., there is no opportunity to play off the excess pressure, to stop the protest movement), nakaplivaetsya social tension will "break through": how the laws of electrical engineering and of political economy.

In the falstad simulator: to Draw. The passive elements. Add spark gap, for example, breakdown voltage, 200V.

The scheme of the "Three circuit"

If you increase the voltage after some time (25 ms) ascrobic passes through the discharge. In electrical engineering: at the onset of the surge gap (discharger) must break before the isolation of the protected equipment.

Similarly, for model companies: revolution as a radical restructuring (however, first – the demolition of the old configuration) is the same spark (spark discharge) that protects the society from destruction.

Revolution is not necessarily something big and similar to the French or our February and October, it can be a radical change of course by changing governments (Armenia, 2018) or just to strong protests (France, late 2018).

When this is not necessary schema changes (new contours and connections of the additional circuit) of the modeled society, in this case, the consumer society may change the values of the power lamp (resistances R), i.e. there will be no restructuring of the schema, but only its reconfiguration without changing circuit topology of (the nature of the process).

In this model – process model of consumption, will remain the principle "the more you consume – the better." And so on to the next crisis or the final victory of the new public paradigm.

On this optimistic note, it would be possible to finish, but we explicitly did not consider "political resistance" (watered-resistor). Consider the options of resistance in the circuit of the protest.

3 the Resistance in the circuit of protest


In the simplest case, consider a fragment of the circuit of consumption with the presence of three chains of consumption of the protest and the discharger. Contour consumption eliminate.

The scheme "Three of a protest"

We assume that each resistance sets a certain level of opposition of any strength.

The left resistor "resistor power". It specifies the level of military pressure on society as well as the level of propaganda in terms of intimidation, disobedience to the authorities. The higher the resistance value (Ohms), the more stringent measures are applied to the protesters (real and potential, that is, ready to join the protest). This branch (chain) models a protest against the government, when the public consumption of their problems (a little budget or a lot of the tax, high prices) blames solely the power (you are the only one to blame will not).

The average resistor sets the level of "state propaganda" theme, when the government brainwash the population by setting: all the fault of a third party, ie not the government and not the consumer. For us it is usually "the machinations of the state Department" or "Fifth column". Here the value of the resistor determines how much of the population (the consumer society) are able to resist state propaganda (not to believe).

The right resistor defines additional ways to "play off" (reset) voltage and "do not lead to sin" (revolution). For example, some large-scale government projects, which at the time can distract consumers from their problems "consumed by few" (other issues in a consumer society there). This example is the Olympics with the "mountain of gold medals" or the country's engagement in a regional war.

For example, in 2014 could be considered the value of the right of the resistor is at least two times lower than the rest (250 Ohms to 500 Ohms).

The scheme "Three of a protest. 2014"

This allowed to relieve social tension companies from 166 to 125 V, with the denomination "discharger per revolution" V BreakDown = 200 V.

In General, each circuit defines a path that reduces social protest: if the two has increased, lowering the level of tension is possible only through the remaining or expected growth of social tension.

All values of currents, voltages and resistances are given probation, only to demonstrate the possibilities of political analysis: "All events are fictitious, but the coincidences are accidental".

Conclusion


Shows a simple model of the consumer society, built by means of the popular simulation of an electrical circuit falstad. Precisely the simplest.

Considered the contours of the real society of consumption have a more complex structure (branched topology watered-chain). In addition, the society of consumption is non-uniform, so for a more accurate model it is expedient to build separate circuits for each layer (group, class) of the society.

All this requires a more sophisticated model which, however, can also be implemented in the tool simulator for the proposed approach (metamodel) "modeling the behavior of the consumer society on the basis of Ohm's law and Kirchhoff".

In this case you may need additional components: storage (capacitors), political oscillating circuits, inductors, transformers, including showing the wireless connection with other circuits, for example, through the "socio-political field" analogues of the electro-magnetic.

Can be offered other interpretations of current\ voltage\ resistance to socio-political processes, and built the corresponding metamodel, and on the basis of its already built model of society.

However, in falstad (and like) the regular elements are not fully can allow the construction of accurate models of socio-political process, therefore you may need or included in a tool specialized for "electric politics" elements (the watered-resistors) or to develop on the basis of a specialized circuit simulator political simulator.

Given that the falstad simulator is simple, and its software code is open, if it has no elements with the required volt-ampere characteristic, corresponding adequate political element (the process), you can add your own — any (required) logic.

If there are other illustrative practical examples of simulation of socio-political processes, particularly the simulation of a consumer society — please provide a link.

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/434824/


RELATED MATERIALS: Science and Society
Возрастное ограничение