Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Science and Society / Analytical work: the experience of Russian and foreign experts / Articles
Come true and unfulfilled: "fantastic" forecasts of CIA
Material posted: Publication date: 30-12-2015
Fifteen years ago CIA tried to predict what will be the world in 2015. The British newspaper "The Telegraph" analysed the old report of the Central intelligence service dated 2000 and allocated the come true and wrong forecasts, and also that experts completely missed.

15 years ago CIA tried to predict, what will be the world in 2015. It seems that they have stuck errors in the forecasts. Lawrence Dodds has told about it in the British newspaper «The Telegraph».

In 2000 of CIA has created a commission of experts outside of agency, the futurological forecast till 2015 became whose task.

Fifteen years have passed.

Many of conclusions of those experts are indisputable, the journalist jokes. Water remained wet, sugar is still sweet, ethnic and religious friction still torment the poor countries.

But how about eating of cutlets from «the cloned beef»? Or consolidations Northern and South Korea?

In 2000 the experts hired by CIA, have truly predicted "explosion" of digital and mobile technologies which has changed the world. The Internet, prospect of general distribution of a wireless communication by means of manual devices and a great number of the inexpensive companions flying at low height, universal wireless cellular communication which will lead to global transformation of a society, unprecedented from the beginning of industrial revolution, - all it is true. The present smart phones which have extended on all planet, seven times more than computing capacity, than at the chess computer, have no time beaten Harry Kasparov. And these smart phones find room on a palm.

The forecasts connected with growth of network technologies have come true also. Revolution in IT has led to political consequences, as well as futurologists promised.

In the Near East there will be «a web connected opposition», thrown new calls to authoritative modes, experts specified. And left: there was «an Arabian spring».

However happens and still something: the same technologies have generated new possibilities of conflicts between the large states. It has been confirmed after «the Chinese and Russian cyberattacks against the USA» and applications of computer virus Stuxnet by the USA for the purpose of sabotage of the Iranian nuclear program.

CIA "excessively optimistically" has concerned consequences of development of biotechnologies. Private profiling genoma and artificial cultivation of "reserve bodies» become a commonplace, experts in 2000 considered. Animals will clone to provide mankind with meat, well, and terrorists will be engaged in gene engineering for the sake of creation of new dangerous illnesses.

Some of these forecasts and are represented to this day by a fantasy.

Something, however, has come true. Service prices genomnogo affairs of masters have sharply fallen for last five years. The forecast on gennomodifitsirovannym to cultures too has appeared true. Despite resistance H'm-cultures, they have extended worldwide. 82 % of the areas of the world are sowed by the modified soya, 68 % - H'm-clap and 30 percent - H'm-corn.

The forecast across Russia has appeared an error of experts, the journalist specifies.

Analysts assumed that Russia can "painfully react" to loss of the status of a superstate by it and that it can use the stocks of gas as the lever for status returning. However analysts considered that weak Russia will be «the most probable outcome», whose hands will be connected by the international diplomacy. Russia can influence world events only by means of the veto in United Nations Security council.

Left differently. Putin «has created the whole network of influence - from Greece to Syria, has interfered with foreign wars, annexed new territories …» And instead of predicted 2500 nuclear warheads it has now more than 8000.

Experts and with a prediction for reunion Northern and South Korea were mistaken.

One more large error - creation of the Palestinian state in the neighbourhood with Israel.

In the report it has correctly been specified that the world's population will grow to 7 billion people and that the gain will be slowed down, and even will address a decrease, in Russia and the Eastern Europe. It is truth: now in Russia lives less people, than in 2000.

But not so is in Africa. Instead of decrease in the population because of AIDS epidemic in the countries to the south of Sahara is born more and more people.

Concerning demographic crisis in the countries of the West experts have appeared are right. CIA expected that the population in developed countries will grow old that will lead to slow crisis. Decrease in the relation of workers to pensioners will create intensity in system of social services, pension system and public health services. The governments will aspire to soften a problem by means of increase of pension age, encouragement of wider participation in labour activity of women and migrants. However immigration will complicate political and social integration: some political parties will continue to incite a society against migrants, protesting concerning new loading on system of social servicing and difficulty in adaptation.

Sounds familiarly? All is authors have predicted truly.

Concerning financial prospects experts predicted high level of growth throughout zero years. And it has come true. However analysts considered that the global economy will show good dynamics and stability till 2015. Developing states which could not conduct liberal reforms will be exposed to risk of financial crisis only.

Actually today specialists speak about the future «a bank collapse» in the USA which have appeared are guilty in «world economy failure» and even have caused «new conversation on limits and wisdom of capitalism».

EU has been named by predictors «by rather peace and rich» (in 2015) and reached a stage of "definitive integration». Certainly, it is far not so.

From forecasts about the international terror «half of truth» has come true only. In spite of the fact that in CIA that have occurred on September, 11th, 2001 worried on even more killing acts of terrorism, than, experts nevertheless could not present to themselves, to what degree the terrorism will rise on a planet.

The reality can even be worse than those representations which we have today, in the end of 2015. There is an information on use of "YOKES" of the chemical weapon stolen at the Syrian government, and also on creation by insurgents of own chemical weapon.

«The Islamic state» became so difficult terrorist organisation that it in a condition to perform and inspire attacks worldwide. Its bloody activity is financed for the account of illicit petrotrade, illegal sale of antiques and taxation by taxes.

And it not simply any criminals. Unlike criminal groupings, "YOKES" not simply it tries to be financed independently; this structure «has own apocalyptic ideology» which puts these Islamites in epicentre «last confrontation of Islam and the West».

Whether experts will risk to give out the report on what will be year of 2030? Who there becomes new predominant force? And who will be on "the Time" cover? And whether there will be "Time"? Hey, CIA!

Oleg Chuvakin


 

Source: <http://topwar.ru/88626-sbyvsheesya-i-nesbyvsheesya-fantasticheskie-prognozy-cru.html>


RELATED MATERIALS: Science and Society