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The management of socio-economic indicators of development of state-based associative analysis
Material posted: Publication date: 09-07-2019
This paper proposes an approach to the construction of the system of management of socio-economic development indicators of the state in order to counter threats in the politico-administrative and socio-economic fields, based on the identification of hidden dependencies of the partial indicators of the strength of the associative methods of data analysis.

1. Analysis of sanction threats political-administrative and financial-economic spheres of national security

13 Feb 2019 U.S. senators introduced in Congress a bill that we are talking about the tightening of anti-Russian sanctions. The bill was approved. He got the name "Act on the protection of U.S. security from the aggression of the Kremlin 2019" (Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act of 2019) [1]. Ideologists of the project describe the sanctions as a means of pressure on the military-political leadership of Russia and beyond the control of the West part of the oligarchic elite. The list of sanctions prohibits any new deals with a sovereign debt of Russia, the financial restrictions on the activities of the leading Russian banks, restrictions in the energy sector.

This bill is not the only of its kind. Until the end of 2018, 62 countries have imposed against Russia 159 the restrictive measures, the estimated damage amounted to 6.3 billion USD [2].

From an economic point of view the sanctions are a means of weakening the Russian economy and its subordination to the global financial and economic competitors. The destructive influence of sanctions in the economy aimed at causing damage to the energy, financial sectors, engineering, defence and extractive industries.
From a legal point of view sanctions are force majeure, which, according to Professor of MGIMO Yuri V. Katasonova, it would be possible to handle, for example, by freezing the fulfillment of their debt, that only in 2019 would save the Treasury about $ 25 billion [3].
From the point of view of international relations, "economic sanctions – a catalyst-accelerator subversive processes in a hybrid war" [4], a new kind of economic aggression [5], non-military means of interstate warfare.

"Non-military means of interstate warfare is the totality of state and social institutions (organizations), political, legal, economic norms, spiritual values, information and technical systems of General purpose, used by the state to influence internal and external relations with target localization and resolution (in the spread) armed conflicts and local wars" [6].

As a means of influencing internal and inter-state relations economic sanctions are applied at the fifth stage of hybrid war in the following General scheme: the objectives of the war – opening vulnerabilities in the security of the enemy – the formation of complex hybrid threats – strategic planning – devastating impact on key areas of management (Economics, Finance, moral and spiritual foundations) – the outbreak of the undeclared war is the ultimate extension of demands for the complete surrender [4].

If sanctions are to be regarded as a means of waging a hybrid war, the target is also Russia's population, preserving their savings in foreign currency and pension funds. Part of the Central Bank is secure and focused in its vaults $ 30 billion in cash, the other banks still 14 billion dollars in cash to pay investors part of the 87 billion dollars, placed on deposits [7]. The issue of non-state pension funds, stuffed with sovereign debt, is still open and the fifth column gives the reason for the loosening of the situation and generating public support for political violence.

From a military point of view, the imposition of sanctions is a preparatory event to ensure the legitimacy of using military force and aggression by the algorithm: the provision of evidence of threats to the U.S. and satellites – the formation of corresponding public opinion and support of the American public and the international community – the introduction of political and economic sanctions – engagement of allies – getting international sanctions on the use of military force [8]. In the event of a negative scenario as a follow-up sanctions step of the algorithm can be considered extensions of the contingent NATO response, the size of which in two years has grown from 25 to 40 thousand people [9]. The troops in conjunction with special operations forces NATO can be used for aggression against Russia under the guise of "humanitarian operations", if non-military means will be disorganized public authorities created favorable conditions for the emergence of internal armed conflict and civil war [10]. In the case of optimistic scenario, the increase of the contingent can be considered, according to the Director of the Center for military-political studies, MGIMO Professor A. I. Podberezkin, as a means of military pressure on Russia to force to accept the rules, norms and values characteristic of the ruling elite of the West [11].

Thus, the modern military-political, financial, economic, informational, spiritual and ideological confrontation between the West and Russia requires the adoption of organizational measures and technical tools predict future destructive actions of foreign States, aimed at undermining the key areas of governance of the country, as well as to develop tools for the automated generation of ways to counter these actions.

2. Analysis of typical schemes of counter-sanctions against national security threats

As a means of economic blackmail in the adopted "hell" sanctions are not randomly selected sovereign debt of Russia. First, swinging the said bill, and, swinging them over the years, our partners carried out awareness-psychological operations on stock markets, terrorizing the holders of ruble debt by a devaluation of the ruble, a debt default and reduce their competitiveness. Second, the prohibition of new transactions in sovereign debt of Russia is an attempt to establish a financial embargo and financial instability in Russia. Thirdly, the complication of borrowing on international markets will cause a reduction in the growth rate of GDP and investment in national projects.

The output of the restrictions created by the sanctions, can be symmetrical, for example, political or economic and financial.

First attempt and scheme of countering the financial and economic expansion of the United States was the resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers dated 1 March 1950, which recognized the need to increase the exchange rate and its calculation in accordance with the gold content of the ruble in 0,222168 grams of pure gold. In 1952, Moscow hosted the International economic conference, which the USSR, Eastern European countries and China agreed on the establishment of alternative dollar trade zone. This project showed the interest of Iran, Ethiopia, Argentina, Mexico, Uruguay, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Ireland and Iceland [12].
As illustrative of the scheme of countering political and financial ally of the dictator, which became the United States after the Bretton woods conference of the United Nations, 1944 [13], should result in a statement of Charles de Gaulle on 4 February 1965 on the transition to the gold standard laid the Foundation for the exchange of paper dollars (then replacing the gold) the gold of Fort Knox, a chain reaction getting rid of "wrappers" in Germany, Canada, Japan, and then the Nixon shock. Even the statement of Charles de Gaulle was the information-psychological explosion so unexpected against the "big brother", how much and exactly landed in the center of mass of the pyramid that initiated consequences on a world scale, from which a handful of bankers and tycoons trying to get away with inflating the bubble (ratio of the dollar to its cost), turning it into a bomb against their clans and any other holders of the currency. This scheme of de Gaulle's work and currently, when Germany, Turkey and the Netherlands returned their gold reserves from the U.S. international repositories [14].

The asymmetrical exit of the limitations is to use ways to counteract in other areas of international relations – economic, legal, technological, information and communication, spiritual, cultural, philosophical and other dimensions that are not reducible to the methods and technologies used threats and not expressed through them.

Indeed, the enemy in accordance with the second stratagem of the ancient Chinese military treatise [15] ("...Attack where you give, not attack where you give back to...") the main attack of the selects based on the ratio of their forces and attacked. The enemy attacks those forces and means which he had the greatest advantage (or the minimum guaranteed in the weak object of the attack) and uke – the largest number of vulnerabilities. Make imposed on enemy tactics and to engage in direct confrontation means to lose the battle before it starts. In this case, the opponent not only has superiority in forces and means, but also in the management of their own and attacked the forces, and, ultimately, in managing change in the situation. Graphically, the outline of such a confrontation may be represented using one dimension, relevant indicator of enemy forces P1 (see Fig. 1). An example of direct (symmetrical, mirror) interstate antagonism is reciprocal expulsion of diplomats from the country.

Fig. 1 – Scheme of a direct confrontation

Rejection of direct interstate warfare follows from the fourth stratagem: "Force, binding the enemy, do not arise from an open confrontation". Therefore, it is necessary to avoid tactics imposed by the enemy, that is to struggle so that it is not expressed via indicators imposed by private forces to achieve significant results of an indirect action with the involvement of small resources. In other words, the attack vector of the enemy and the vector of confrontation must be independent (linear, nonlinear, trigonometricheskie or based on another model) in the space of partial indicators of the strength of the attacking enemy, that is orthogonal (see Fig. 2). According to the US intelligence community [16], asymmetric strategy is that one side of the conflict "bypasses or undermines the other benefits of using institutional weaknesses using methods that differ significantly from expected".

Fig. 2 – Scheme of orthogonal confrontation

3. The current state of modeling of processes of change in the global balance of power in the process of geopolitical confrontation

Realizing the importance of threats to the national security of the Russian Federation arising from the sanctions phase of a hybrid war, it should be emphasized special importance of the relevance of technology development analysis and strategic planning of measures to counter these threats. If this is a problem assessment of indicators of national security in international relations because of the complexity of quantitative formal description of the system of international relations [17].

Current research in the field of modeling of processes of change in the global balance of power based on the technology of building and analyzing trees of goals and objectives, methods of gaming simulation methods of multi-criteria analysis, cognitive modeling, technology forecast research, methods, scenario analysis, and machine learning methods based on regression models (in particular logistic regression model, Lasso, geographically weighted regression), random forest models, models of reasoning based on precedents, hidden Markov models, and others [17, 18, 19].

As the most vital model can be called a model of controlled chaos.
"A model of controlled chaos – a description of the development process confrontational spiral in the selected country or group of countries to achieve defined socio-political, military, economic, geographical characteristics of a victim state (or region)" [20].

The initial data of the model are factors of administrative-political, financial-economic, cultural-ideological spheres of chaos, a preferred development scenario of the situation and its situation. The output of the model are the controlling influences on the parameters of the development situations of controlled chaos. An integral part of the model is a prediction function of the process of controlled chaos in a geopolitical area. Under a defensive strategy based on the model of controlled chaos is the solution of a complex of measures on ensuring national security in military-political, socio-economic and ideological influences of the enemy.

However, the requirements for objectivity in the simulation of military-political situation and socio-economic situation lead to more widespread use of quantitative indicators [20]. The parameters of the development of the situation needs to be controlled, and thus independent of the control actions of the enemy, that is, asymmetric.

4. The method of asymmetric counteraction to destructive actions based on gradient descent

As one of methods of asymmetric counter consider gradient descent, known in the system analysis among the methods of nonlinear optimization and widespread methods in machine learning, particularly neural networks, which suggests the choice of its implementation. The essence of the method lies in the consistent implementation of complex measures of counteraction, minimizing the target loss function f(p_1,p_2,...,p_n ), orthogonal to enemy action in the current time, so the combination of these actions will represent the shortest trajectory from the initial point (initial values of the loss function) to the point of minimum of the loss function (see Fig. 3).

Fig. 3 – Geometrical interpretation of the minimization of the loss function from two particular indices of power based on the gradient descent method

Event counter, orthogonal actions "partners" are defined by the assignment of one or more additional measurements P2, P3, ... space partial indicators of power and are aimed at managing these indicators (see Fig. 4). The aggregated vector of counter is given by the coordinates defined by the values of these parameters, and sent to antigradient at the point of intersection of the line of direction of the impact of the enemy (lying on level line, the loss function) and the hypersurface of the possibilities of resistance, characterizing the restrictions on specific indicators of force.

The contents of the method will be presented in the following sequence of actions:

  • to determine the specific indicators of force, characterizing their capabilities;
  • choose from private power indicators those indicators that do not depend on the particular indices of the power of the enemy;
  • formed from a number of particular indicators power, independent of the adversary to choose such which would depend on the specific indicators of enemy forces;
  • step by step to determine the event (p2, p3), ..., (p2', p3'), ... counter the enemy realized in the subspace of the partial indicators of force, orthogonal to enemy action, to minimize the loss function from the destructive actions of the enemy.


Fig. 4 – Diagram of a method of asymmetrical counter
based on the gradient descent

5. Subspace types of inter-state confrontation

The chosen partial indicators of power for each sphere of confrontation form a subspace of the confrontation so that each subspace is set to the dimensions relevant to private strength indicators characterizing their capabilities in this area and the capabilities of the enemy. Subspaces are combined in the three spaces of life of the state [21] (see Fig. 5): physical, mental and spiritual. These spaces relate to the three fundamental bases of human life: the flesh (material, physical), mind (mental) and soul (spiritual). The physical space includes territorial, economic and demographic subspaces. Mental – political, informational and psychological subspace. Spiritual – religious, cultural and ethical subspaces.


Fig. 5 – diagram showing the relationship of subspaces types of inter-state confrontation

The purpose of war is to capture specific space and subspaces of the resource and destruction (subordination) infrastructure for its use:

A. In the physical space:

  • territory, in the territorial subspace;
  • human resources – in the demographic subspace;
  • foreign exchange and raw material resources in the economic subspace;

B. In the mental space:

  • doctrinal actions (doctrinal justification for military action) – politically subspace;
  • however, in the information sub-space;
  • will (willpower, mental capacity) – in the psychological subspace;

V. In the spiritual space:

  • the grace of the spirit (the spirit) in religious subspace;
  • history and traditions (historic justification for military action) – the cultural subspace;
  • fear of God (moral capacity, moral justification for military action) – in ethical subspace.

As an example, we give the enemy's goals and methods of struggle in the political subspace.

The goal of fighting the enemy in the political subspace:

  • the transition from nation-state control to a globally-international (the destruction of the state as an institution of power);
  • reformatting of the geopolitical space of the national from defined to undefined (not having as the basis of identity of citizens no nation, no tradition, no faith, no history, no culture);
  • subordination of existing bodies of state administration of all States in the interests of centers of globalization.
  • the formation of the doctrinal justification for military action.

The ways to combat the enemy in the political subspace:

  • reformatting of the political elite on personal interests contrary to public (corruption);
  • removal or destruction of the political elite, focused on the interests of the state (revolution);
  • the reformation of society on personal interests, which contradict state (collapse);
    the destruction of the constituent segments of the population (genocide);
  • removal or destruction of the Patriotic organizations, their leaders, or individual citizens (terror).

Known military theorist of ancient times, sun Tzu defined the principle of the dominance of subspaces. He said [22]: "Therefore one who is able to wage war, conquering foreign army, not fighting; takes the fortress of others, not precipitating; crushes a foreign state, and not keeping his army for a long time". This can be interpreted, for example, in the following way: it is more expedient to wage war mental means (e.g., diplomatic, information and psychological) than physical. The highest importance is the spiritual Foundation of a person: "Kills the enemy rage, seizes his wealth greed" [22]. If the aggressor has the superiority in numbers of the armed forces, military technology, economic power and even to occupy the territory, but will not break the spirit of the people, its control system will last for long, as history teaches us. Therefore, the spiritual power of the people based on his faith in God is the basis for all subspaces, the key to his victories. So always won and never lost the great Russian generals and naval commanders, among them Alexander Suvorov and F. F. Ushakov, canonized.

Examples of destructive actions of the enemy in the spiritual space are split in the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, the protests against the construction of the Cathedral of St. Catherine in Yekaterinburg. While we discuss the goals of the implementation of the current law of the United States "On the enslaved Nations", according to which "the United States supports the independence of the peoples of Idel (Volga) - Ural", the curators of these actions from abroad: a former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst [23], Director of the Internet portal E1, part of the American media company Hearst Shkulev Media Rinat Nizamov (for the first two days of protest 29 articles on the main page of the site, having a daily attendance of about a million) [24], former chief editor of "Radio Liberty", first Deputy Executive Director "of the Presidential center of Boris Yeltsin," Lyudmila Telen, calling for an uprising against the Russian Orthodox Church [23], the former head of the election headquarters of Bulk Leonid Volkov (coordinated through Facebook, the organization of action in Ekaterinburg) [23].

In addition to the principle of domination subspaces of confrontation, we define the principle of reachability subspaces. If we consider the subspace of confrontation from the standpoint of logic possible worlds, then every subspace of confrontation will correspond to a possible world. Possible worlds are connected by the reachability relation, which implies the possibility of achieving the goals of the confrontation in some world (i.e., the subspace of confrontation), reachable from a given world (see Fig. 5). It is impossible to achieve mental goals (political, media) achievement only physical goals (territorial, economic). The reverse is not only possible, but only possible. Similarly, you cannot achieve spiritual goals by achieving just the mental goals, and only historically, considering the long history of Russia, we see that a brighter future is forged not cheap labor and high productivity in the camps, but rather is a consequence of preserving the spiritual and moral principles and cultural traditions of the state.
The principles of dominance and reachability not always correct, but only in the applicability conditions. One of the most important conditions for the applicability of principles of justice is conducting inter-state warfare. "Not in force God, but in truth", – said the Holy blessed Grand Prince Alexander Nevsky.


6. Identification of hidden dependencies of the partial indicators of the strength of the associative methods of analysis

Hybrid warfare encompasses the three areas of governance of the state: administrative state (political), socio-economic and cultural-ideological [20]. These spheres of control States correspond to the subspaces of his life in the modern world are so linked together that changing one of the characteristics of power necessarily causes a chain reaction in all spheres of governance of the state, as reflected in the indicators of power, it would seem, not related to each other. The causal relationships of indicators of strength are uncertain, and a large portion of the dependency indicator is hidden. However, the choice of indicators asymmetric effects will allow you to counter the enemy with maximum efficiency. The identification of these indicators is possible on the basis of the direction data mining (Data Mining) – Association analysis [25, 26, 27]. This area is used at the stage of simulation and prediction in a generalized decision tree [28] (see Fig. 6).

For decision-making using intelligent support system needs to be implemented the following information technology:

  • extract data and knowledge from the global Internet;
  • extracting knowledge from social networks;
  • extracting knowledge from text information;
  • machine translation of text information;
  • recognition of people and objects on photos and videos;
  • graphical selection of information;
  • automatic processing of speech information;
  • data visualization and visual data analysis.

Baseline data for decision-making are arrays of numerical, statistical, textual, graphic, photographic, cartographic, visual, auditory and other information as formalized and substructuring reflecting the specific indicators of force. Among them can be attributed to peculiarities of physical-geographical conditions of the regions, availability of energy, transport infrastructure, significant events in military-political, socio-economic and other fields, for example: "the arrival of CIA Director", "the outbreak of an armed conflict."

The activities of the enemy, carried out within the framework of a hybrid war against the Russian Federation shall be based on planning that takes into account the conditions of carrying out destructive actions and their possible consequences. As conditions of action, the destructive actions themselves and the consequences of actions are events in the future, we will consider the conditions–actions–consequences as a pattern

or event. This template can be represented as Association rules.

Association rules - rules for the quantitative description of dependencies between events

,

where

X - a set of events, called the condition the Association rule,

Y - a set of events, called the consequence of the Association rules.

Association rules are identified, these patterns hybrid enemy action, which have not been captured by scientific methods or by expert evaluations, but was manifested historically. Therefore, the selection of particular indices of strength for asymmetric effects is to define chains of Association rules , ... between the events occurring during the reference period of time. Association rules identify based on the comparison of Association rule – support Association rules, Association rule confidence, lift and leverage with their threshold values.

Fig. 6 – General scheme of decision-making with the use of mining tools

The support S() of Association rule is the ratio of the number of sets of events that contain the term X and the result Y to the total number of events N:

If the sets of events ordered in time, the support of the Association rule shows the frequency of occurrence of the event set and which contains as a condition X and result Y.
For example, 10 sets of events describing periods of crisis States, 6 sets together the events of "the arrival of CIA Director" and "armed conflict". In this case, the support of the Association rule "If the arrival of the Director of the CIA, the outbreak of an armed conflict" is equal to 0.6:
Some events occur frequently, and therefore are in a large number of sets of events. However, some events can work together to meet often enough, although the dependencies between them does not exist. To improve the accuracy of detection of Association rules, determines the accuracy of Association rules.

The accuracy of C() of the Association rule is the ratio of the number of sets of events that contain the term X and the conclusion Y, the number of sets of events containing only:

.

The reliability of the rule shows the proportion of sets of events in which every time when a condition X is present the result Y.

For example, if 10 sets of events describing periods of crisis States, 6 sets meet the events of "the arrival of CIA Director" and "armed conflict", the confidence of the Association rule "If the arrival of the Director of the CIA, the outbreak of an armed conflict" is 1:

In identifying Association rules are selected such a set of events X and Y for which the corresponding rules exceed the thresholds of support and confidence.
To identify hidden dependencies of the partial indicators of the strength of the developed analytical application. The initial data are randomly selected from official sources of the 136 values of indicators (tens of thousands of indicators) socio-economic development of Russia and countries of the big seven. This application confirmed the obvious based on the debt of the value of exports and imports of Russia. Confirmed obvious based on the debt of Russia on the volume of agricultural production, growth of volumes of industrial production in Russia. In addition, using this analytic applications identified certain dependencies, which can be attributed to managed socio-economic development of the state. In particular, as of 2013 the dependence of public debt of Russia the rate of growth of industrial production of Germany (see Fig. 7), which can be interpreted in a replenishment of our state budget through the placement of automobile factories of leading German companies on the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as growth of demand for Russian energy. Thus, driving some indicators of socio-economic development of the state depends on the state debt of Russia (for example, entering response sanctions on the import of agricultural products, which was done, as well as allowing for the production of foreign cars in Russia) can be managed by public debt.

7. Methods of control indicators of the state on the basis of associative analysis

To control indicators of the state in order to counter the destructive actions of the enemy in the socio-economic sphere we propose the following methodology.
In the first stage determines the required indicators of socio-economic activities of foreign States engaged in destructive socio-economic action, and Russia, whose state must change. They are determined as consequences of the Association rules using the Association rule tree (see Fig. 7).


Fig. 7 – Tree of Association rules

In the second stage using the selected Association rules for the selected indicators determined by the conditions on which they depend.

In the third stage assessed the measures selected as conditions of Association rules on the possibility of their change through management processes that they describe. If this cannot be achieved, the conditions for Association rules rely on the quality of the effects, which again is determined by the conditions in accordance with the first and second stage techniques.

In the fourth stage, chosen as the terms Association rule set changed at the moment of performance, using the Visualizer "what-if" you can define other indicators of socio-economic activities of foreign States and the Russian Federation, which is the result of Association rules, which may change due to changes in its conditions.
This technique can be used not only in the political-administrative and socio-economic spheres, as to indirect management indicators of socio-economic activities of the Russian Federation, and an asymmetric response to the destructive actions of foreign States that threaten the security of the Russian Federation.

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Gulevsky R. A., Rajpura M. A., Faleev, P. A.


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