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The wisdom of the crowd under computer control: a hybrid intelligence learning to predict the unpredictable
Material posted : Administrator Publication date: 18-08-2017

A race of artificial intelligences began: the neural network learn all the more unexpected and interesting problems that they could solve, and more companies and start-UPS trying to bring them to a qualitatively new level, beyond which lies the passage of the Turing test and the singularity. While some strewed lavish promises for those who wants all around ("the First trillionaire will be the one who does the AI"), other to frighten the horrors of the singularity and unpredictability of the relations of humanity and AI. However, they both think in terms of a single paradigm: the AI is inevitable — the only question is, will he bring us misfortune, the prosperity or a complex mixture of both — then in what proportions?

But there is a third way, the alternative to peace is uncontested superiority of AI in which we surrender to his mercy — hoping that this really is grace. Is the ability of the human brain. In the article "People don't even understand how to become cyborgs," I outlined the idea theoretically: neural interfaces, the development of which is conducted with equal success, but less aplomb than is the development of neural networks, able to bring people and humanity as a whole to a new level of intellectual power, which is able to delay us a day when we will become Pets to caring the care of robots and "Skynet", and extend to us the time when we can still afford to feel the crown of creation is now a private, not evolution gods or Engineers.

2017 has already earned a place in the future history of cyborgization of man, at least that Elon Musk, the man whose ideas always become the number one news in the world of technology, launched the company Neuralink, which is to weave "neurogroup" — implantable electronic shell of the brain. Electric vehicles, autopilots, development of Mars or new technology public transport — Mask indicates the main trends of progress, one after another. But this does not mean that before the Mask of life was not just Elon can disperse any topic that drew attention, one fact of falling into the orbit of his powerful medialine.

So, a team of Russian mathematicians and traders Cindicator suddenly found itself at the forefront of progress: the guys just did their job until the start Neuralink has not designated the Union of the properties of the human brain with the processing power and communication capabilities of computers as one of the top trends. Cindicator and, unexpectedly for himself, was among the leaders of this trend.

What makes Cindicator?

Cindicator is a platform that combines the collective intelligence in the truest sense (the so-called "wisdom of the crowd") with the analytical power of computer systems to predict future events, primarily in the financial sector.

The wisdom of crowds — repeatedly observed and confirmed the effect, when the arithmetic mean of the results of guessing any large number of people are close to the correct answer. Remember, as Raymond Babbitt, played by Dustin Hoffman in "rain Man", at-a-glance an accurate count of the number of scattered toothpicks as a waitress? The ordinary person is not under force, but if a hundred people write their estimations, done with one look, the arithmetic mean is likely to be close to the truth.

If you go quite a distance, then any mass expression of will is carried out correctly — this is the expression of the collective unconscious, which can be "cast in granite": the voice of the people is the voice of God.

But to go beyond amusing laboratory experiments and to find the practical application of the "wisdom of crowds" nobody has never done before. First, for obvious logistical reasons: the technical ability to involve an inordinately large number of people in the solution of problems by this method, is relatively recent. That is the boom in smartphones and mobile Internet made them accessible to those who are interested in its "wisdom" — and the very process of guessing have helped to give shape.

Second, in accordance with the mathematical principle of the "right formulation contains half the solution", you should be able to put a question to the collective mind — that did not work, as in "Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy":

The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything: after careful reflection, I have to say is 42

The study of the wisdom of crowds say that the best use for it are tasks with specific unambiguous answer — mathematical or geographical. In other words, places or numbers. But because the place is just a point in the coordinate system, it all comes down to the numbers. Paradox: few people in high school loved math — but collectively we are good accountants. I wonder what would happen if students will pass the exams, the whole class vote for certain answers?

And thanks to the "connection" to the collective mind through the mobile app, Cindicator achieves a complete decentralization of its collective mind that is one of the fundamental conditions — the group members must avoid any and all communication and exchange of ideas within the team, in order to avoid the influence of certain individuals on others.

How to make money on predictions

When the character in the movie "Back to the future" has decided to earn additionally on the knowledge of the future, he decided to earn money on sports betting. Cindicator, choosing the scope of application of their efforts, started with the financial market, which gave very promising feedback: it is agreed and sharp, everyday necessity in the projections (what can I say, when separate financial instruments by the name that they require Nostradamus), and clear feedback, allowing to estimate the quality of its forecasts — and, of course, the ability to effectively monetize the resulting data.

Strengthening the team of mathematicians and data analysts experienced traders with substantial experience managing large positions, trading in global stock, futures, Forex and crypto markets, Cindicator began to feel "special path" in the cruel world of financial trading.

The practical application of the wisdom of crowds in trading on stock and currency markets in reality is a little more complicated than trying to guess tomorrow's dollar. Cindicator is constantly testing different types of questions, data, new trading strategies and models to optimize the use of the data for creating trading robots analytical products (indexes, price levels, sentiment etc.); constantly bekteshi and forwardtest to adapt the models in a constantly changing market.

In addition to working with the results of the forecasts of the crowd, Cindicator adjusts and the machine predictions: as the experience Cindicator, thin provisioning is quite able to accelerate the efficiency of the engine significantly. One example of this is a joint experiment of the Moscow stock exchange, whose trading robot Cindicator for three weeks has carried out transactions based on the collective opinions 863 application users, of which 40% have never carried out transactions on the stock exchange. During the experiment, the robot modeled 27 trades, 17 of which were profitable. In the result during the competition, the model portfolio rose by 2.8% in foreign currency (47%).

To improve its performance, electronics Cindicator required to analyze not only the accuracy of each collective forecast, but also the effectiveness of each of the thousands and tens of thousands of forecasters, its strengths and weaknesses — this is the big data, about which so much talk in recent years, but barely learned to approach it.

Work Cindicator big data includes a system and methods for determining the weight of the forecast each user of the application on the basis of personal timesheet accuracy on various types of issues (time in decision-making, the history of predictions for each type of investment instrument, the relationship between the responses, the type of the used method of analysis, etc.), dynamic feedback after each transaction, taking into account both the fact of the profit or loss, and its size at the end of each prognosis.

The sleep of reason produces monsters. The collective intelligence of superfantastico

Thus, computational power Cindicator not only adjusts the machine itself to the collective predictions. She stands out among the crowd — individuality. At first glance, this may seem contrary to the idea of the wisdom of crowds, when a large amount of noise, errors, subjectivity kompensiruet its heterogeneity and diversity (the simplest example is Gaussian distribution), but the practice Cindicator shows that a small dirigisme performed with high mathematical precision, allows not only to adjust natural power of collective predictions, but, what is quite impossible to expect pre — select people, steadily appearing in fact strong predictors ourselves — superfantastico.

Supermarketuri — superheroes of the real world

Until recently, the phenomenon of "wisdom of crowds" was, in fact, do not deeply studied. Experiments confirming its existence, was held sufficient. But the computational and organizational capacity to dig deeper, just wasn't there.

Cindicator is not a research project, but a side effect of the practical application of the "wisdom of crowds" is just a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and new discoveries. As happened shortly after the launch of the platform support of the theory of superfantastico (super-forecasters) — people who in most cases make more accurate predictions on certain assets and issues than others. The proportion of superfantastico among all users Cindicator is approximately 2%. Further analysis showed that they are heterogeneous — some superficiality universal as forecasters, other precision higher than the median appears to predict only certain types of events. Reason of the uniqueness of these 2%, and the specialization of some of them is yet to be determined — it could be natural talent, and acquired competence in the previously mentioned example of experiment with the Moscow exchange, the author of the most accurate forecasts has become an investor with 10 years of experience. However, this does not invalidate the very idea of it as the result of trading would have made +of 1.48% over three weeks (25% APR), which is almost two times lower than the yield, provided the collective wisdom of Forastero Cindicator (2.8% in the currency in 3 weeks/47% per annum).

In Comedy shows often found the case when a housewife at guessing the results of football matches better husband, a fan. In real life, the most unexpected people can be carriers of the ability to predict exchange rates or weather conditions of the future, without even knowing it — how and about what they could achieve using their superpowers.

Forward to the noosphere

Adjustable machines the wisdom of the crowd Cindicator calls a "hybrid intelligence" (GI). The project team is not even really correct to call the developers because they develop only part of the system. Her main strength is, literally, the living one. So Cindicator would be better suited to defining control of hybrid intelligence. In the very beginning for its development, learning, domestication.

If you combine knowledge Cindicator about the wisdom of crowds and expertise in the direction of the elemental power of collective intelligence for the solution of applied problems of development of the same Neuralink if Elon musk will accompany with them the same success as with electric cars, hybrid intelligence Cindicator, in combination with a neural interface, can and do provide people with the breakthrough to a new technological, intellectual, and social levels that was associated exclusively with the invention of AI.

Physical (or rather, bio electronic) interface that is generated by Neuralink will require software developments, enabling it to directly implement these opportunities — just as a modern smartphone without a rich set of programs is nothing more than an expensive flashlight. The development of iron harder and more expensive, but wins in the end, whoever has the best software — so be an example and not soaring Windows Phone eternal reminder of this.

By deploying their technology platform Neuralink or any other similar project, which will finish early, Cindicator will be able to overcome the brink of the conventions in the definition of "hybrid intelligence" and create a hybrid of the human mind with the processing power of machines without any quotes. In fact, it would mean a transition to the noosphere Vernadsky. And yet, of all available alternatives, the ability of the human mind, accelerated integration with electronic brains, combined, perhaps in a supermind — are the best protection from threats AI, real or imaginary. At least, this will preserve the ability of the human mind to know reality — putting aside for some time approach the singularity — the moment when the speed and complexity of technology development will outstrip the ability of human to realize what is happening. Hybrid intelligence — yet our best chance to keep your place on the top of the food chain.

andorro

Source: https://geektimes.ru/post/283608/


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