Today, we observe with interest how the SpaceX rocket vertically landing on a floating platform. Tomorrow we look out the window of the Mars dome (will it have Windows?), to admire the flowering tomatoes. Between today and tomorrow — gap length... theoretically 10 to 20 years. Almost of the progress mankind has never seen, and over the last 50 years.
The improbability of mass colonization of Mars
The goal of 1 million inhabitants on Mars — unreal. Using Mars Colonial Transporter, which will carry 100 passengers at a time requires 10,000 flights just to get to the Red planet people.
But material support will be 10 times more. Himself Elon Musk acknowledges that the system needs to be 110 000 flights.
Even at one flight per day will be required in 301. And if the flights will be operated daily, and the journey there and back will require more than a year (because when Mars will be next, trip will be longer), you will need 425 reusable spacecraft. That's more than can afford any company or even a country.
With 24 flights per year 110 000 flights will last for 4583.
To Fund passenger transport, the Mask will have to find a million people willing to pay $ 200,000 for the voluntary life in hell. Only the poor and the poor might venture and try your luck to earn money. But they will not be $ 200,000.
Musk could find a million people who want to go out there and find a good job, but then someone else will have to pay for the trip and to pay people salary.
Selling tourist trips will not be able to pay for the flights. Unlikely SpaceX will be able to find lots of groups of 20 people willing to pay $ 1 million to pay for the tickets 80 others, especially when space travel will become quite common.
It will not be a month on the moon or on a tourist space station. People spend about two years of life in hell plus a free radiation for Breakfast, lunch and dinner. You see anyone voluntarily went to live in Antarctica, which by its terms is a little like Mars? I'm not.
So unless Mars is not rich in minerals or other very valuable resources that will pay for travel (people and resources will go to Mars, and minerals to the Earth), with our current technology, space travel, Mars will be very dependent on Earth, and there will be a few hundred settlers.
We will duplantis, but the second planet would have bad if the first planet is feeling bad. Only with new technologies of space travel, Mars will be able to become Autonomous.
The goal is to make humanity a species living on two planets, a very worthy, in terms of ensuring our survival for millions of years. But ordinary people who worry more about how to pay for communal and taxes, make the only feasible practical things and hope for the best. They will not stake their lives to go to Mars and to contribute to human survival as a species.
And since mass colonization of Mars economically feasible, this will not happen.
SpaceX deserves credit for its capabilities
In any case, is to pay tribute, even if the plans for the colonization of Mars seem to be too optimistic, SpaceX has already proved that he could get to Mars. Musk similar to obsessed. He will not rest until it takes people to the Red planet.
Still he was paid by NASA for sending and return of cargo to the International space station with excellent results.
After some delays, SpaceX will launch this summer its rocket, the Falcon Heavy and may begin to send NASA astronauts to the International space station in 2018 (or 2019) year. They also promised the first unmanned flight to Mars in 2020 (although it was originally scheduled for 2018).
Of course, if some NASA astronauts (or declared tourists who will fly to the moon in 2018) will eventually die as a result of the disaster, we will have to wait another delay, already for many years. You should not interfere with SpaceX with all those dreamers, who dream of big plans, not a name nor a penny to his name.
If SpaceX will send humans to Mars faster than NASA (SpaceX talks about the year 2025, but the recent delay of its first unmanned flight suggests that these terms are unrealistic), even with the help of NASA (if NASA will understand that the Mask is really ready to do this, the Agency will join in too), the Mask will take its rightful place in history next to von Braun and Korolev (and not with Gagarin or Armstrong, is worthy people, but their merit secured by other people in their place could be many).
Even trump could help. He chose the Mask as one of his advisors. Musk could use a huge ego trump, nasatv him that the tramp would share historical glory, if ordered NASA to join SpaceX in the Martian epic (and forget about the Space Launch System).
Of course, trump won't be able to solemnly declare: "We won Mars: I made America great again!" because it is not in office. History will not remember him.
Why should we go to Mars?
For mankind it would be absolutely fantastic, in terms of pride and self-esteem to get to Mars and establish a permanent station for a small research and tourism, but until we can find economic reasons to do more, we will not be able to do more.
You can say, well the hell are we going to spend billions to feel better about yourself (have fun) when you could spend that money on fighting poverty and disease treatment?
Well, we spend far more (trillions) just like that, millions of different things.
Just think about how much the industry spends on making movies. Many of them are now worth more than $ 300 million. The budget for "the Martian" was 108 million. Mission Mars Semi-direct, very low-budget mission with the participation of people to Mars would cost $ 55 billion.
But Elon Musk says he can build a Mars rocket for $ 10 billion. You can even increase this amount to 20 billion, including the cost of other possible things. Yes, it may cost more, but let's just accept that number. It cost 66 films with a budget of 300 million each. Is it worth it?
Obviously, the task is to make mankind mnogoletnim view still reasonable from scientific and economic points of view, so we must have other reasons not to do it.
We can say that the future of the people is indissolubly connected with the cosmos because the Sun will burn and destroy all life on Earth 3-4 billion years.
But it will be so far in the future that our chances to end the existence before this are much higher.
Let's not argue, trip and the establishment of a Martian base will improve our technology and, perhaps, even lead to scientific breakthroughs. But we don't want to Mars for other reasons.
We could go for it, even if there were no technological advantages. There is even life there.
We do many expensive things for no particular reason. The economy is just a tool to achieve our objectives, and they are all very psychological.
For example, we want to make money, not for money, but for the sake of positive emotions, including security, independence, freedom of action, not just for the sake of goods that we can buy.
In the 60-ies of the last century, the United States and the Soviet Union spent billions of dollars on the race for the moon, just trying to show the world the best political system.
Musk insists that we must become mnogoletnim a view to rationalize his desire, but he will not see this in your life (if you do not start to invest in research for immortality).
Sometimes he admits that the real purpose is to do inspirational things. He is referring to historical events. He searches for his place in history, trying to earn his own immortality. And there is nothing wrong. Such people as he, brought us out of the caves of the stone age, since most of us have not done and will not do anything really important during our entire life.
We want to visit Mars because it would make us proud of what we people like nothing else. And so I want to get to Mars before any asteroid, even if the asteroid more valuable minerals.
Of course, if we wait another 50 years, you can do it for less money and with less risk, but why give all the glory to our children and grandchildren?
Since our fathers and grandfathers lost the opportunity, we can do it. And if I say "we", that doesn't mean I will play any role in this journey. So people talking about sporting achievements they never say that their club or country to win, they say "we won".
It is the collective appropriation of other people's successes gives such great psychological significance to events that in reality have nothing to do with our lives (at least in the short term), like visit Mars.
We all play a role in this historic success for humanity. Whether it is USA, Russia, Madagascar or individual. We will go to Mars for psychological reasons, because this is the meaning of life.
- 16-09-2017 10 the coming "end of the world", which need not to sleep
- 13-09-2017 Elon Musk: competition in the field of artificial intelligence could lead to a world war
- 01-09-2017 To burn the library of Alexandria-2. GOOGLE has digitized 25 million books — why can't they be read?
- 31-08-2017 So at different times saw a future of interstellar travel
- 28-08-2017 "Dark DNA" can change the way we think about evolution
- 30-11--0001 Physics saw the beginning of times and confirmed the expansion of the Universe
- 30-09-2010 From Russia suggest that you escape as soon as possible