After the victory in the first round of the French presidential election, ex-economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, the European media and blogosphere are filled with predictions for the next round. But, it seems, as the main "predictor" was made by the speaker of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani. On Monday, he predicted that the leader of the party "national front" marine Le Pen, also reaching the second round will not be able to win.
The victory of the Macron is hardly clean and not done without external pressure, says the Director of the International Institute of the newest States Alexei Martynov, who watched the election from the scene.
The use of information pressure
In the voting "in favor of the project of government – Emmanuel Macron – has been applied to such long-forgotten we have a "black technologies" like stuffing one of the strongholds of the results of exit polls", said the expert, who watched the election day vote. "Through the Belgian media was draining exit polls, instantly spread in the French segment of the Internet and those in the French and global media... the Stuffing was to confirm that the Makron wins," said the expert in an interview with the newspaper LOOK. When counting the first half of the ballots leader of "National front" marine Le Pen is really ahead of all the candidates, but eventually lost to the Macron by typing 21,53% vs 23.75% of the Macron.
Since the difference in votes from all the candidates was extremely small (ex-Prime Minister Francois Fillon scored 19,91%, and the leader of the left movement "Rebellious France," Jean-Luc Mélenchon – 19,64%), the Macron due to the different kind of political manipulation managed to pull the necessary 1,5–2%, according to Martynov. "When such gaps, decide factors such as administrative resources and information," – said the expert.
"Compaction" of the necessary results of voting in the minds of the French inhabitants" began as soon as closed areas, said Martynov. "It is estimated two to three percent of the ballots, as reported, that the leader Makron. When treated thirty percent, Fillon made a speech and said: "I admit that I lost" (but could still change). And then the Fillon urged to vote for the Macron, because Le Pen is an extremist, etc." Demonstrations of dissent were quickly dispersed by the police with tear gas and rubber batons.
The means justify the goal, and the macron was the winner in the first round – then his chances of winning seriously increased.
The victory of the Makron seems to be expected
General expectations are that in the second round win macron, said the French writer and social activist Dmitry koshko. All major system policy, including participating in the elections (except for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the leader of the party "Wake Up, France" Nicolas DuPont-Aignan), called to vote for the Macron, noticed the cat in conversation with the newspaper LOOK. Such calls were made by Francois Fillon and candidate from the ruling socialist Benoit Hamon.
"Some of the people who voted for Fillon or Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will vote for Le Pen. But it is unlikely that she can gather the most" – has assumed in conversation with the newspaper OPINION of the French expert Christophe bago.
"No one person on Earth there is no doubt that in the second round Emmanuel macron will become the President of France," – said in comments the newspaper VIEW doctor of political Sciences, academician Yuri Pivovarov. In his opinion, Le Pen will probably raise the bar and gain up to 40% of the vote, but in the end still lose.
Similar Outlook and gives leading researcher of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Fedorov. "In the second round, the chances of marine Le Pen to win are extremely low," – said the expert newspaper VIEW. According to Fedorov, everyone who voted for unsuccessful candidates, will vote against Le Pen. "This is a significant part of the supporting françois Fillon, the socialists and the extreme left. This will ensure the Emmanuel Macron a landslide victory in the ratio 60% to 40%", – says Fedorov.
Yuri Pivovarov compares the current situation with the elections in 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen (father of marine) came out in the second round and lost to then President Jacques Chirac. For Chirac voted not only his supporters, but also "all those opposed, as they say, "far right radical "National front". The experts agree: the victory of marine Le Pen in the second round to prevent the ambiguous image of the party "National front" inherited from his father a marine and a founder of the party, right-wing radical Jean-Marie Le pen.
Against Le Pen can play a "paternal heritage" and the fears of townspeople
Christophe bago, his original profession as a psychologist and psychotherapist, specialist in treatment of stress – says: one of his patients, who several years ago was an activist of the National front party, marine Le Pen, complained of difficulties with employment. "And that's only because people have discovered the Internet and saw this man once was the party of Le Pen," says Dr. bago. Case this person is quite common, said the source. The front national still enjoys a controversial reputation. "Marine Le Pen, though renewed image of the party, but people have not forgotten about this, pointed out bago. – Still in France if you want to vote for Le Pen, they will not talk about it, it is shameful."
A significant portion of Le Pen's electorate – the people of the province, "who want to show that dissatisfied with the system", and resort to a protest vote, says the source. But that constituency is not enough to win. "Nuclear Le Pen's voters – about 20%, not growing. Many undecided scares her agenda, seemingly radical," – said Alexey Martynov. According to sociologists, almost 60% of the French are wary of "National front", believing that it is the "party of nationalists, extremists" who must be feared.
"In France all decide to large cities – indicates Yuri Pivovarov. In Paris, marine Le Pen got about 5% is nothing if it gets in the country more than 20%".
"There is a strong prejudice against Le Pen, says Christoph bago. – Maybe next time she could become President if there will be many problems in France, if the Makron will make a lot of mistakes. But it is too early," – said bago. According to him, the current French society to the victory of Le Pen is not ready.
In turn, Emmanuel macron presents himself as a unifying figure, "he takes himself as a centrist". "He says one thing, then something reverse, thus attempting to please everyone, while the candidacy of marine Le Pen seems the most dangerous," says Christoph bago.
If the victory of the Macron in the second round looks predictable, the policy of France in case of his victory until it seems clear.
The current "environment of Emmanuel Macron is very heterogeneous: from ex-Communist Robert Yu to the extreme ultra-liberals", says cat. "It was joined by a lot of crooks hoping to get a place at the trough. Will have someone to hurt, someone to ignore". Considering the support given to the Makron big business, unhappy can be quite a lot, said the source.
More or less visible foreign policy priorities, which can lead Makron. First, any withdrawal of France from the EU is not expected (as promised Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon), predicts Yuri Pivovarov.
It is unlikely that the President Makron will conduct an active policy at the EU level, agrees Dmitry koshko. Here will set the tone for Angela Merkel, it involves cats. "Will dictate to Washington. Americans ranked the Macron to Young Leaders (the so-called program of the French-American Foundation, where he delivered lectures and Francois Hollande)", – said the source.
In relation to Russia, the Makron most likely not the current position stresses the cat. "But gathered around him ardent Russophobes, and it should not be forgotten," – said the source. Russia will be difficult to negotiate with Macron, says Brewers. "Fillon, unlike Macron, would be much more negotiability", – the expert believes.
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