Analysis and evaluation of available information in the field of development of information technologies and production technologies of modern microprocessors and computing technology in General, leads to the conclusion that in the next three to five years are potentially significant, largely revolutionary leap in technology development of several leading countries of the world due to the breakthrough in improving the performance of computing resources, as well as fundamental changes in the field of software engineering.
The implementation of innovative achievements in these areas will allow the countries-leaders of the scientific-technological revolution significantly increase the technological gap in relation to other countries of the world, which in turn will lead to a further escalation of tensions in a polarized world of the new global information society.
So, the research divisions of the U.S. of Intel Corporation (the world's leading manufacturer of microprocessors) was prepared the program of development of microelectronic devices for the period up to 2015. The program is called "Platform 2015" and reflects the views of leading experts of the Corporation to issue medium-term development of microprocessors and methods of their programming.
According to experts of the Corporation, microprocessors are now experiencing an important stage of its evolution. Future changes in the creation of these key elements of modern computers are, in the opinion of experts of Intel, will become the most significant from the moment of their appearance.
Now, the necessity of radical revision of principles for the creation of microprocessors, without which a further doubling of microprocessor performance every 18 months, identifies the development of most high-tech areas of the economy and formation of information society, becomes impossible.
However, simply increasing the level of integrity (the number of transistor elements per unit of chip area) today, it is not possible to achieve the required performance. For the upcoming quantum leap required a comprehensive review of the basics of the technological processes used in the production of microprocessors, their architecture and software.
In the field of technology of microprocessors has been reached the practical ceiling for maximum performance of the crystals. However, significant technological breakthrough in the areas that can replace traditional technologies (especially in optoelectronics, nanotechnology and biotechnology), in recent years did not happen. In this regard, in the medium term, experts believe Intel will be maintained the primacy of silicon technology in the production of microprocessors, however, will be substantially revised their architecture.
According to experts of Intel, the analysis of the current needs and trends in the field of information technology and microelectronics suggests that the processors and hardware platforms needs to move towards a virtualized (unattached to specific hardware implementation), a reconfigurable microprocessor architecture at the chip level with a large number of cores, a rich set of built-in computing capabilities, the subsystem on-chip memory a large amount with intellectual and microkernel.
Such a vision is confirmed by the information that the management of the company Intel today is extremely concerned about the situation on the world market of high technologies.
For many years Intel worked closely with Microsoft, but lately, the standing of this company and its flagship product - Windows operating system on the market has significantly deteriorated due to the active promotion of the Linux operating system. However the Intel optimized for Windows and not compete when working under Linux. So Intel executives interested in the fact that subsequent generations of microprocessors were not rigidly tied to a particular operating system. In addition, today is a very acute issue of increasing the security of computers, especially from virus attacks.
To solve this problem by hardware and software implementation of the so-called "virtualization of resources" or "virtual environments". The first such systems were developed for mainframes, but personal computers such system existed only in the form of software emulators.
In this direction Intel plans include the development of several technologies, the most important of which is a multiprocessor processing at the chip level. This architecture is able to ensure the implementation of specialized functions and a high level of adaptability needed for future platforms. In addition to General purpose cores, these processors will incorporate specialized cores to perform different classes of computation, such as graphics, speech recognition algorithms and processing communication protocols, security (hardware implementing cryptographic functions, management of digital certificates etc.).
Intel experts say that the traditional desktop computer that implements the basic elements of the program "Platform 2015", will contain 8 to 16 processor cores, and traditional server – from 32 to 96 such nuclei, which will provide the required level of processing the increasing flow of information.
In addition, experts from Intel today almost solved questions about the use of fiber optic and optoelectronic technologies to resolve bottlenecks in the architecture of computers associated with a low bandwidth system bus and device interfaces, I/o and RAM of the computer.
The developed technology allows to significantly increase the throughput of the system bus, which will allow to fully use the resource of multi-core processors, however, reduce the total side electromagnetic radiation of the entire system.
Together with the comprehension of the problematic issues of formation of new views on the architecture of future microprocessors, Intel experts noted the need to change approaches to the development of software for the new processor architecture. In the works by Intel indicates that an existing situation creating software has exhausted its possibilities.
The complexity of today's software products requires more fundamental changes and approaches to software development. The existing concept still requires the existence of systems analysts or project leader, able to comprehend and retain in memory all the features of a development project, which every year becomes less feasible. In addition, the existing programming techniques do not allow to create reliable software able to adapt to changing situations in the process of information processing. The use of a human programmer makes a significant contribution to the low reliability of the generated software code.
All this, plus upcoming changes in the architecture of microprocessors, makes the experts look for new approaches to software development. So, recently in the foreign literature, a considerable number of publications on so-called DNA computers and DNA programming. The basic idea works – using the analogy of the replication protein sequences in living cells to create a predetermined program code. Additionally, the analysis shows that recent advances in programming have been already applied for the creation of computer viruses.
So, back in the late 90-ies as a result of research scientific center, IBM determined that there are viruses for which it is impossible to write a program that detect them with 100% probability even in the presence of signatures and conducting its comprehensive analysis.
In addition to this research work, conducted at the University of Berkeley (USA) showed that it is possible to create an Internet worm ten times more dangerous than widely known worms Nimda and Code Red. It is noted that such active worms, in contrast, referred to Nimda and Red Code whose transmission period lasts from several hours to several days, can infect all computers in the Internet within 15 minutes.
According to some analysts, this is indeed a serious threat, especially in conjunction with the information research center of IBM. Timely to oppose him antivirus is just impossible. Almost all antivirus companies, including Russian ones, promise to create a vaccine against the new virus within 24 hours — for an active Internet worm is too long.
In addition, on hacker sites in the last time there was a lot of information about the creation of so-called "metamorphic viruses", and use them in the development of genetic algorithms and neural networks.
In metamorphic viruses, in contrast to the conventional polymorphic, each new copy does not change the separate fragment, and the whole body, which significantly complicates their detection. Technology application of neural networks allow to create viruses whose elements are distributed over the network and modifierade based on ambient conditions.
Today already developed a number of algorithms allowing to write viruses that fundamentally cannot be detected by any of the existing methods either today or in the near future.
A number of experts said that the virus is written in a virtual machine requires a lot of time to analyze with traditional methods. If such viruses spread, it is unlikely that an existing anti-virus industry will be able to fight effectively. It is quite natural. Viruses, sooner or later had to get complicated to the extent that when a few professionals with the help of “manual” analysis can have nothing to do.
Along with the problem of massive attacks using the macro virus and e-mail systems, recently received publicity information about the work in the field of creation of "cybernetic organisms". This is a small (50 to 100 lines of code) programs, which are automatically generated by software packages using the genetic algorithms optimization, to minimize code length. According to some, the implementation of such programs, for example, in the automated system of air traffic control will allow an attacker to paralyze a major aviation hub in just a few tens of minutes. The program for the development of this kind of funds software matematichekogo exposure in foreign literature received the name CVCM (Computer Virus Countermeasures).
Experts note that the most promising way of implementing such programmes is the method of remote deployment. If you implement this method, you use the remote defeat of the automated system by hovering over her virus by using directed electromagnetic fields, modulated by the virus code. Thus, in particular in a number of sources of information related to promising American space communication system Teledesic, found the term "pack attachments", which can be seen as this kind of "cybernetic organism".
Another direction in the improvement of information weapons is the creation of a network of intelligent software agents, which are usually entrusted with the functions of providing information weapons. One of these developments is the program GenPage and Genetix. System such software agents form the basis for the formation of a virtual architecture joint intelligence information (Joint Intelligence Virtual Architecture, JIVA).
All of the above suggests that the destructive potential of computer viruses has increased significantly in recent years. The combination of technological methods for creating viral software code with the latest hardware architectures will give a new qualitative leap in the means of information resources influence on information systems. Today it is necessary to find fundamentally new ways of combating this type of informational influence.
Unfortunately, recent changes, and especially the forecast for the development of microprocessor technology and programming in Russia today does not receive the necessary reflection and evaluation among specialists. However, Russia remains a country completely dependent on supplies of imported equipment and software. This trend will continue in the near term.
However, as shown by the analysis of existing experience of the Russian scientific school in the field of protection of information in computer systems today are largely based on traditional and now outdated approaches to programming.
In many cases, the approaches used to create protection systems are based on the unique characteristics of software and hardware architecture.
Existing methods of analysis and verification of the program code, as well as methods of identifying undeclared features of the software, usually based on the classical von Neumann architecture and the Turing machine that practically does not allow to use them for solving such problems based on a new multicore CPU architecture with the elements of virtualization.
This is true for the existing methods of carrying out special inspections of computers to identify eavesdropping devices.
According to some Russian experts, today in Russia methodological approaches to the conduct of spetsslujbami and special checks does not fully correspond to the achieved level of technology development.
Thus, it is crucial to properly assess the direction and possible implications in the development of computing, as the basis of forming of modern information society. The underestimation of the rate of development will lead to the almost complete gap in this area from developed countries in the field of information security.
The above trends in the development of work related to radical changes in the architecture of future microprocessors and methods of programming such systems today are a serious threat to national security, and require active study of the question of adaptation of existing approaches to assessing security of information technology and hardware for the upcoming changes.
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