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Alexander Zhilin: Why is no military intervention of Russia?
Material posted: Publication date: 05-06-2014

The level of analytical discussions in Runet perfectly described the political scientist Simon Uralov: "to Consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off the mind and turned into bloodthirsty hysterical men only Kiev colleagues - is fundamentally wrong. Among the Moscow colleagues there are also an incredible amount."

The purpose of this material is a departure from hysterics and cold analysis of the situation in Ukraine.

Why no military intervention of Russia?

If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant portion would be devoted to the explanation of why to send troops to Ukraine - it's impractical and just plain stupid even after the referendum. Fortunately, better than I went to the head of the resistance in Slavinska, Igor Strelkov, who in his video address very precisely described the inertia of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments about participation in the referendum, I hasten to say that the check mark in the ballot is certainly cool, but not very different from hipster-belolentochnye attempts "carry mode" like on Facebook. Because "like" handle made in the Bulletin are not changing. The referendum was a necessary but not a sufficient action.

As far as the Kremlin is ready to events in Ukraine and how it is now improvising?

I advise you to read this Wikileaks telegramin which it is seen that the Kremlin Americans in 2008 clearly pointed out scenarios that we see today: "Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face." -- "the experts tell us that Russia is particularly concerned that a strong division of opinion in Ukraine on NATO membership, given the fact that a large part of ethnic Russian - against, can lead to serious split, involving violence or at worst to civil war. In this scenario, Russia will have to choose: to intervene or not, and Russia does not want to face such choice."

It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that we are now in may and unpleasant but more or less elaborate scenarios, something like "plan E".

In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, the goal stated:

- To prevent the entry of Ukraine into NATO.

- To prevent the establishment and stabilization in Ukraine of a Russophobic regime, which assumes denazification.

- To prevent the genocide of the Russian population of the South-East.

Ideally, the implementation of all three objectives and thus need not break the Russian economy in the process of reorienting towards Asia and at the same time not to allow the Americans to delay their economic end due to the EU.

How can these goals be implemented?

Let's consider the simplest scenario and see what he has vulnerabilities and negative consequences:

So, Russian army enters Ukraine and a few days comes to Kiev, then captures all of Ukraine. "Patriots" are jubilant, the parade on the Khreschatyk, etc.

Seems to have achieved all three objectives, but the following issues occur:

1. In the EU, where the European business elite are slowly pressed to nail their politicians and descend on the brakes sanctions, definitely wins the "War Party" (aka "Party in the USA", or rather "Party Pax Americana"). Against Russia and cut the maximum real sanctions with devastating effects particularly for the European economy, which immediately falls into recession. But nothing to be happy about.

Against this background, the Americans easily push the signing of their variant of The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership trade Pact, which turns the EU into an appendage of the American economy. Negotiations about it go right now, and for Americans the entry of Russian troops to Ukraine would be a huge gift. Sanctions against Russia are destroying Europe business, and the removal of trade barriers with the US finishes it. What we have at the output: the EU - as if, after after the war, the United States - all in white, joyfully embracing the European markets on which they have not and will not be competitors, Russia is not in the best shape. Anybody think that someone in this situation Lough, and that someone is clearly not the U.S.? By the way, the arguments about what the European politicians will not allow economic suicide are not worth it. European officials could do worse, in practice.

2. Apart from the fact that the Kremlin will provide service to Washington, you need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.

  • If against Russia will crank up the sanctions until signed natural gas mega-contract for 30 years with China, China will be able to negotiate price from a position of strength. In fact, from a position of blackmail (China, however, and shows, but not so clearly).
  • If against Russia will crank up the sanctions before the signing of the oil mega-contract with Iran, through which Rosneft will be able to control another 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Iran will be able to negotiate price from a position of strength.
  • All subsequent attempts to build something up to just the supplies we need right now, imports will be very, very expensive.
  • If sanctions cut in before the signing of the Treaty establishing the Eurasian economic community, imagine what trump would receive Lukashenka and Nazarbayev to twist the arms of Putin in the negotiations. A little more, and Moscow for the sake of creating the EurAsEC will have to pay for their oil.

3. The Russian Federation will have to assume the rise of the Ukrainian economy, the denazification (where to get the right amount of denazification in dusty helmets? If who has forgotten, in dusty helmets by Okudzhava over the dead hero of the civil war had turned it commissioners), to fight compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, which will support and supply from abroad.

In sum, it is clear that in this scenario greatly benefited the U.S. and China. Russia remains a deep sense of moral satisfaction, economic issues and future curses from shiry Ukrainians who are unhappy with "life under occupation".

As are arranged in the key points of our vulnerabilities:

1. Gas contract with China - may-June (may 21 signed!)

2. Oil contract with Iran – summer ( that's why the U.S. lifted the embargo, as Rosneft is very tightly seated under BP and not under Exxon Mobil. Where will the oil flow? In China).

3. Important! European Parliament elections, which many voters will get the eurosceptic allies of Russia. After the elections, will be assembled a different group of Evrokomissii which will be much easier to work on may 25. It is even more important! Gas contract signed with China, newly elected deputies will be more cooperative on South stream.

4. The collection of all necessary documents/permits/etc for the construction of South Stream – may.

Is that visible to the naked eye, but there are still aspects that are very important but difficult to make a clear chart:

1. The transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and gas is not a potato, there are long-term contracts that you cannot alter unilaterally, require a long time to replace plus the change of current.

2. The transition to quoting in rubles in energy prices (trading in rubles) on the Russian sites -- it is absolutely hellish work, though, because no one as yet nothing of the sort really did.

3. Its own payment system

4. Preparation of import substitution or the development of work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode)

The list can and should continue, this is what I see, and the Kremlin is much broader horizons.

Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is not sitting idly by. For example, Vice Minister Karasin was on may 6 in Doha and met with Qatari across the top. The results, in my opinion, turned out shocking. According to the foreign Ministry, the Qatari Emir said that he appreciates the "convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation", which is very unexpected for a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the middle East and a 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria.

But the explanation is quite simple and the fact that the American dream to fill the whole world with cheap gas are for Qatar and its elite death sentence. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar not just lose hope for regional greatness and becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer interesting: "at the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF)", the next summit of which (that's a coincidence!) will be held in Qatar. The forum of Gas Exporting Countries is an organization which includes such countries as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which long, but unsuccessfully, the Kremlin tried to turn into the gas analogue of OPEC.

It is not excluded that now is the hour for potential gas cartel. For the first time, three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar and Iran have very similar interests and may work on the same side in order to share and "take over the gills" and the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a truncated format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of the world's gas reserves and have significant opportunities to strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, this project faced many challenges, he will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything will work out, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking opportunities to gain more strategic advantages in the fight against the United States.

I hope now it is clear what the Kremlin is spending the time he tries to win in Ukraine and why it matters.

Back to the tasks directly related to Ukraine and note that even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects will not help to carry out the denazification of Kiev and to make so that Russian troops or rebel army of Novorossia would wait with bread and salt at least in the Central regions. If the army of Novorossia problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk,then work with a more zombified regions will be very difficult. However, it appears that on the side of the Russian Federation will soon be released on the Colonel Hunger and the special forces Hyperock ("Hyperinflation"), which dramatically change the balance of power.

The Ukrainian economy. Taking into account the failed spring planting, destroyed crops of vegetables (frozen), lack of credit, problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, we can safely say that the economy will come Northern animal, which is full and fluffy. Money junta nobody else will and even the IMF, which promised something about $ 17 billion (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), is embedded in the contract "excuse": if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev will not receive a dime.

Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and the reduction of brains shiry Ukrainians. Russia of course they will like, but this is not necessary. It is necessary that the period of Yanukovych was remembered as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with a sluggish civil war guarantees that NATO Ukraine will not take for Europe "will be on rails", and in the United States more or less moderate politicians will not make a move that obviously will not lead to the victory of the USA, and by the retraction of the country in a nuclear war.

Moreover, in conditions of total economic collapse, miners, metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and in the hope of "wait till everyone in the business", there will no longer be possible. They have to participate, in one format or another, in solving political and economic problems of new Russia. Most likely will have to participate with weapons in their hands.

At the same time, the junta. Poroshenko, driven by the European Union, there will be a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. In this direction, Poroshenko will push the new Commission, which will need peace in the East and stable gas transit. In the same direction Poroshenko will push social explosions caused by Colonel Hunger and the saboteur Hipercom.

All of these factors, in sum, provide the Kremlin a great opportunity to reformat the former Ukraine into something corresponding to our national interests. This script try to avoid the States and because of it they have a serious reason to hurry in order to translate the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed.

If you add up the time that is needed for the action of Hunger and the time needed to solve foreign policy problems in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, unlock from the dollar, import substitution etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion that you need somewhere 5-9 months (that same December, for which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, it is necessary to ensure at least the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support the DPR, the LPR, but Kiev too fast to not take the necessary in order not to create unnecessary problems), and ideally to combine the civil war with prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2+4 , i.e. Poroshenko, Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.

The final touch. In recent months, the US has slowed down its printing press, reducing the "money supply" (especially simplify the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (for example) that the machine is completely shut down by the end of this year. Again, the same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though the main international currency, but printing it endlessly - it is impossible.

According to various estimates, America is almost fully utilized "resource strength" of the dollar, which allowed naughty with the machine. Moreover, incidental and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing the rates on U.S. bonds-on the one hand helps Washington to pay less for the debts but on the other hand, actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system which is built on expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, USA will have a choice to blow up their social system in order to print on, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve at least some chance to stabilize at home. Judging by the decrease in the number of dollars thrown into the system, Washington has decided that preventing an explosion in itself - more important than foreign policy ambitions.

Now, finally folding the puzzle, get the forecast:

- America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine to weaken Russia and put the whole European market to have to shut down its printing press.

- The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to chronic phase - civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create the most comfortable conditions for transition in the phase of acute confrontation with the U.S. is decoupling from the dollar, work with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the EurAsEC and so on.

- Complete end of the crisis — December 2014, possibly earlier if the US would stop trying exacerbation.

- And if I don't?

- Then... war... a great war for resources, because the shale "boom" was an ordinary bubble.


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