Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
Analysis of the current situation in Yemen. The main problematic aspects
Material posted: Publication date: 11-11-2019
Currently, we can witness the successive disintegration of Yemen. We can say that this problem does not receive enough international attention, when compared with parallel developments in Syria that have public resonance.

The current political and economic situation in Yemen is associated with prolonged warfare inside the country between the warring parties as: Saudi Arabia (headed by the "Arab coalition") and the military movement of Muslims Shiite, called "Ansar Allah or the Houthis". At the moment, on behalf of the "Arab coalition" are countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (hereinafter – UAE). The object of the conflict is the arrival of certain political elite to power at the head of the Yemeni state.

First of all, you need to define the goals of each party. One of the main positions in this regional conflict is "Ansar Allah". The primary purpose of the "Ansar Allah" is the elimination of religious discrimination. Some time later there were other goals: the allocation of Northern Yemen as a separate region, if not will be created the coalition government; the sending of the current government to resign and create a new, which the Houthis will have an equal chance of representation; the cessation of military operations "Arab coalition".

The second Central figure in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereinafter  KSA), which heads the "Arab coalition" with an independent foreign policy of military intervention in the Yemeni Republic to prevent the coup and subsequent takeover by the Houthis. Assume that the following grounds are the cornerstone in determining the motives of the KSA in Yemen: the struggle to spread Islam Shia interpretation to the border with KSA government; rivalry with Iran for expansion of religious and political superiority of the co-religionists of the Sunni in the Republic of Yemen; taking into consideration the fact that the oil reserves Yemen runs out, it does not preclude the discovery of new deposits that will be used in favor of the national interests of the KSA.

Of course, in the current situation, there are other political actors that influence the situation in Yemen. Significant weight in this conflict becomes the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereinafter  IRI). The Houthis and the Iranian population profess the same branch of Islam. In this regard, Iran is committed to provide humanitarian support to Yemen, particularly their co-religionists of the Shia. In turn, Iran also seeks to prevent further expansion of the KSA in Yemen, as is the struggle for dominance in the region. This position IRI is carried out exclusively by diplomatic means, through appeals to the UN to actively respond to what is happening in the Republic of Yemen events [1]. Especially focusing on how negative the influence of KSA destabilizing situation in the country.

In turn, the totality of terrorist organizations operating in Yemen: AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and ISIS (Islamic State) contribute to the expansion of the state and the ruin of its resources. It is necessary to stress that Yemen is in eighth place on the global terrorism index [2]. This indicator reflects the level of terrorist activity in the country. On this basis, we can talk about really large scale of the activities of these terrorist groups in Yemen.

The goal of AQAP and ISIS as transparent as possible. In connection with the situation in the country, terrorists are actively ruining the local population, holding it in fear that contributes to the personal enrichment of the data groups. We can assume that the object of their activities is to further extend its influence across the country to gain full access to the oil fields and subsequent sale of oil abroad.

Its role in the current conflict and the United States play, the maximum veiling their presence in Yemen. The US provides logistical support to the KSA. Moreover, KSA is the main partner of the USA in the field of public procurement of weapons and equipment of American manufacture. The United States have a number of objectives in respect of the Republic of Yemen:

  • first, the establishment of a puppet government under the Pro-Western President who will be beneficial to the United States from the diplomatic point of view;
  • second, the continuation of the conflict in Yemen urges KSA to increase the number of arms purchases, thus increasing the cash inflow to the us Treasury;
  • thirdly, the further destabilization of the situation in the region is conducive to the expansion of activities of terrorist organizations.

Accordingly, this suggests that even in the case of resolving the current conflict between the KSA and the "Ansar Allah", there will be a new threat in the face of terrorist groups that threaten not only Yemen, but also the border to the States. In other words, there is a probability that next to Yemen countries (Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Oman, etc.) will be under the threat of a new wave of terror. Therefore, the aforesaid state will actively seek funds to combat AQAP and ISIS, which will give US the opportunity to sell weapons and equipment in large quantities, since there will be new partners in the sphere of military-technical cooperation in the face of these States. As the objective is not excluded the possibility of the presence of U.S. military forces on the territory of these countries in order to "assist" in confronting terrorist organizations, according to the expanding military influence of the United States in the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa.

Returning to the root cause of the conflict, it is worth noting that the KSA supports the current President of Yemen Mansour Hadi, which, in turn, legitimate authority from the point of view of the UN security Council [3], but has modest support among the population of Yemen. At the moment he is in exile, living in Riyadh. You should also consider the fact that Yemen has the land border with only two countries: Oman and Saudi Arabia. Oman in this conflict adheres to neutrality and does not interfere in the events, even under the auspices of the "Arab coalition". Thus, Yemen was in a position where the state de facto ceased to lead the President, and the country was divided into two parts from the point of view of administrative management: controlled by the Houthis and running the "Arab coalition", speaking on behalf of the government forces.

The current circumstances has a negative impact on the output of the Yemen humanitarian crisis, increasing tensions in the region.

The geographical position of the country influences the militaristic opposition to the forces operating in the Yemen to their advantage. Given the spatial location, KSA as a major neighbor of Yemen, freely pursues a policy of active interference in the internal Affairs of that state. This is evidenced by the fact that the presence of troops in KSA most of the territory of Yemen and, accordingly, the active conduct of their hostilities in the region [4].

On the one hand, the KSA authorities are trying to regain power in Yemen in the hands of the former leader, on the other hand, they also are the catalyst of dissent in Yemen. Consequently, their policies of military intervention has no positive trends for Yemen, since such actions further dezintegrarea society and the state as a whole. Based on the above, it can be argued that Yemen will not be able to get out of the humanitarian crisis until, until there is a settlement between the conflicting parties [5].
In any case this will not be enough, because Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world, so to cope with the shortage of food and medical care is not possible. From this it follows that the UN must put the region under his special control, and on a permanent basis to carry out humanitarian assistance to stabilize the situation in the country.

Along with this, you need to take into account the fact that in political terms, the Houthis have long to exercise control of Northern Yemen, even under constant military intervention KSA. This suggests that, assuming a complete displacement of the Saudis, "Ansar Allah", by and large, able to run the country. Wrote A. A. Svechin, Russian and Soviet military leader: "the Power of the state class is necessary not only to fight within the state for the conduct of certain programs, ie, to define its interests in domestic policy but also to defend its interests in relations with other States, i.e., conduct foreign policy" [6]. In this situation, the Houthis are the dominant class in Yemen, conducting its own independent domestic policy; protecting yourself not only in your region but ready to take decisive action, striking at vital enemy targets.

In turn, an important role in resolving the conflict in the South of the Arabian Peninsula should play the ban the CSA to intervene in the internal politics of Yemen. This condition is of paramount importance, since the state wants to return sovereignty must control everything that happens in its territory.

Currently, the Yemeni government has full control of the country, allowing to free from the external pressure the internal politics. Most likely, solely in the case of the monitoring of the UN for the withdrawal of Arab forces from Yemen, we can talk about resolving internal problems and further development of the country.

Jean Bodin, the famous French politician and philosopher, in his book, he wrote: "Sovereignty is the most Supreme, absolute, and perpetual power over the citizens and filed in the state" [7]. Without this feature, the state as a political institution, ceases to exist. This means that Yemen is in a situation of political and economic decline, in the near future may split into two honor, forming North and South Yemen.

The reference point, which is repelled by the CSA in the conduct of military operations is that, the KSA authorities believe Mansour Hadi legitimate President of Yemen, as well as the UN [3]. However, we must take into account the fact that the question of legitimacy does not depend on foreign analysts, and from the people residing in Yemen. The Houthis more than a third of the total population of the country, therefore, you can come to the conclusion that maloveroyatno victory Mansur Hadi, in democratic elections of the President in case of their conduct. For this reason, you should conduct a formal impeachment of the head of state, as the current President does not control the situation in the country does not enjoy the support of the population, and the fact that he spent several years in exile speaks of his failure as leader of Yemen.

The CSA was not able to strengthen its position in Yemen through military operations, annually wasting billions of dollars on their funding. Such actions of the KSA as aggravated its relationship with the paramilitary group "Ansar Allah", thereby jeopardizing the economic well-being of the Kingdom. Since oil is the main source of income of Saudi Arabia, the opposing side was targeting the oil fields, which on 14 September 2019 made the attack with 10 drones, showing that their determination in defending their own rights, as well as saying that it was a response to the destructive actions of the Kingdom [8]. It is worth noting that in previous years mirrored the Houthis responded to the actions of the invaders, but this time completely different from the others in its scope. The continuation of such military operations will lead to further escalation of the conflict.

The current conflict showed the divisiveness of the KSA in relation to the deep involvement of Iran in the present crisis. All statements about the involvement of Iran in the Yemen conflict does not have any supported evidence. Iran is actually a false "adverse" political actor, required the CSA to justify their failures relating to the conduct of hostilities in Yemen. In turn, Iran denies willingness to help their fellow Shiites. Iran actually supported the "Ansar Allah", but now we are talking about diplomatic support and promote a peaceful settlement of the Yemen conflict.

Senior researcher, Institute of Oriental studies, expert of the Valdai club, Sergei Serebrov wrote the following: "If to speak about the role of Iran, it remains a phantom participant in the Yemeni crisis and it is only a bugbear used to justify their policy of Riyadh in Yemen" [9]. In fact, one can argue about bespechnosti Iran in exacerbating the current situation in Yemen, as the reverse has not been proven, and on the international stage Iran is calling for diplomatic solution to the problem, that is, the cessation of hostilities and the negotiation for the establishment of a legitimate government in the state. In other words, Iran in contrast to Saudi Arabia, is the political subject that is really trying to help end the fighting in Yemen, not only through diplomatic means, but also through the humanitarian support Yemen's population, without using military force.

In the case of AQAP and ISIS can firmly say that these terrorist groups have reached the peak of its prosperity, is actively expanding its activities in Yemen. In turn, you need to understand that at the moment, for US main objective is the fight against the movement "Ansar Allah", which the US believes is the main distributor of Iranian influence, therefore, we can assume that the main priority of the United States in this conflict is not the destruction of "al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula", and the elimination of the Shiite rebels, against which the UAE and the USA according to the Associated Press (AP), international information Agency, which is one of the largest in the world, dealing with AQAP, paying fighters money those agreeing to retreat from the occupied territories [10].
The response of the Arab coalition was forced to wait, her spokesman, Colonel of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia Turki al-Malki said about the falsity of the information [11]. In other words, if the material support is banned in many countries of the world terrorist organizations is still not implemented, it does not change the fact that AQAP has a huge impact on Yemen. Consequently, we can conclude: terrorism in Yemen will prosper further, while the US and its Arab allies will be at war against the indigenous population of Yemen, in the face of the Houthis, and not terrorist organizations.

Predicting the future set of circumstances, it can be argued that further escalation of the conflict would benefit only the United States and terrorist organizations, contributing to their further enrichment. The relations of Iran and KSA changes for the worse, which would entail the appearance of a conflict of global proportions between the two oil powers. Relative to the Huthis we can assume two versions of events:

  1. A diplomatic settlement of the conflict, giving the "Ansar Allah" substantial representation in the government of Yemen;
  2. The emergence of such States as North Yemen, which is fully controlled by the Houthis.

It should be noted the importance of the qualitative transformation on the issue of humanitarian support for Yemen. UN moves simultaneously in the direction of de-escalation, and escalation, as, on the one hand, the UN has been active in the direction of the food and other aid to residents of the Republic of Yemen, on the other hand, it does not stop the diplomatic support of military action Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia continues to destroy the state, reduce the quality of life of the Yemeni population, and also to financially contribute to the dissemination and enrichment of members of the "al-Qaeda".

Also important is the establishment of the real scope of activities of Iran with respect to their co-religionists. All boils down to the fact that at the moment Iran has an active humanitarian and diplomatic support to the Yemeni Houthis, and all statements of Saudi Arabia and the United States on arms and military equipment, without any evidence, are a kind of provocation, destabilizing already explosive situation in the region.

Summing up, it is necessary to emphasize the fundamental importance of the fact that in the agenda the situation in Yemen has no proper review in the international arena. Meanwhile, the Houthis have found a way out of the current circumstances, imposing to the world the evidence of that if not to pay attention to the current situation in the Republic of Yemen, the "Ansar Allah" is ready to act to the best of their opportunities to prove it on the example of the resistance to all acts of aggression their "enemies" in the past few years. "Ansar Allah", by his purpose, oil field, causing damage not only to the economy of the KSA, but the whole world. For this reason, from their point of view will have to reckon not only KSA and the UN.


Sources

  1. Iran presented to the United Nations plan for the settlement of the conflict in Yemen. 17.04.2015. URL: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1912801 (date accessed: 26.10.2019).
  2. 2018 global terrorism index. Measuring the impact of terrorism. URL: http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2018/12/Global-Terrorism-Index-2018.pdf (date accessed: 23.10.2019).
  3. The UN security Council condemned the insurgency in Yemen and supported the President. 22.03.2015. URL: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1847154 (date accessed: 15.10.2019).
  4. Experts told about the confrontation between the coalition and the Houthis in Yemen. 26.03.2019. URL: https://ria.ru/20190326/1552106413.html (date accessed: 26.10.2019).
  5. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and who. 2018. The situation in the area of food security and nutrition in the world in 2018. Increasing resilience to climate impacts in order to ensure food security and nutrition. Rome, FAO. URL: http://www.fao.org/3/I9553RU/i9553ru.pdf (date accessed: 30.09.2019).
  6. Svechin A. A. Strategy. M.-L.: Govoriat, 1926. P. 28.
  7. J. Bodin, Les six livres de la République. P.: Librairie générale française, 1993. 607 pp.
  8. Major oil facilities on fire because of the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia. 14.09.2019. URL: https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-49696962 (date accessed: 29.09.2019).
  9. Serebrov, S. N. Yemeni trap. A major geopolitical game with an unpredictable ending. 14.10.2016. URL: https://lenta.ru/articles/2016/10/14/yemen_trap/ (accessed: 29.09.2019).
  10. Yemen: U.S. Allies Spin Deals with al-Qaida in War on Rebels. 06.08.2018. URL: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/5434116 (date accessed: 03.10.2019).
  11. Saudi coalition denies "Deal" with terrorists is not negotiated. 07.08.2018. URL: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2018/08/07/saudovskaya-koaliciya-oprovergaet-sdelki-s-terroristami-ne-zaklyuchaem (date accessed: 16.10.2019).

Katamadze, A. K.


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение