Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
Big Middle Eastern trap
Material posted: Publication date: 22-01-2016
The president Barack Obama made the last appeal to the Congress. The term of its powers comes to an end soon, and many analysts consider the most considerable achievement of its administration removal of sanctions from Iran. On the other hand, the Middle Eastern policy of the USA which brought to sharp, already four times to falling of price of oil, is still a riddle: whether it is new strategy of Washington in the world, whether the next zigzag of so-called policy of "the operated chaos". The Middle East can become for someone a trap of "chaos", but for whom? Here in what a question …

In Roman Babayan's program "Vote" (of 12.01.2016, TVC) experts-Americanists shared insider information that any more Middle East isn't interesting to the USA. Then it is possible to tell that Washington to some extent come back to isolationism policy. Tells about it also Donald Trump's phenomenon with his idea "returns of America home". Trump — the evidence of undoubted drift of policy of the USA: the part of ruling class was tired of burden of world leadership. This drift will find to itself a place in policy of Washington irrespective of the fact how there will be a destiny of the U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Then in the near future the USA will become "the regional power", and Silent and Atlantic oceans will become regions of its influence. For this purpose Washington actively creates now Pacific (without China) and Transatlantic (without Russia) partnership. And here the Transindian partnership isn't present and in the project! It turns out, the USA leave the Indian Ocean, and then to them, really, the Middle East doesn't become interesting! And they leave it to the mercy of fate, and not against to ship in chaos of war to catch a small fish in her muddy waters.

Then it is clear why Washington defiantly throws the old partner in the region — Saudi Arabia, as if suggesting Iran to appropriate it. From Iran after all the international sanctions are removed. However, the USA impose at the same time ballistic sanctions against Iran, but they unilateral, and are cold comfort for Riyadh.

Thus Riyadh pursues more than strange policy: Nimra al-Nimra executes the Shiite preacher, and it is extreme provocation in relation to Iran. The countries break off diplomatic relations, and the State Department scornfully declares that these "children" have to solve the problems. Riyadh answers with a known share of a call: "he isn't interested in opinion of Washington on the kingdom relations with Iran".

World mass media write off strangenesses of saudit for a certain panic in their royal house, after all there more than 1000 princes … There are also rational explanations: Riyadh aggravates a situation in the region to cause the anti-Iranian reaction of the USA. Only, and he doesn't want war with Iran and is afraid ….

Plans of Washington for creation of Transatlantic and Pacific partnership coincided with an exit of the USA, for the first time after the long period, to the world market of oil, and with slate oil. The first consignments of this oil already began to come to Europe. It rather expensive, also faces in the markets cheap Middle Eastern oil. If the USA intend to use slate oil as the power weapon, for a gain of the Atlantic and Pacific markets, they need to move away competitors with cheap oil, for example, having arranged between them war. War between Saudi Arabia and Iran will block access of oil from the Persian Gulf to the world markets, and will allow to take their slate oil of the USA.

Once this scheme was fulfilled on the Iraq-Iranian war, and today it is imposed to Saudi Arabia and Iran. As SA is obvious more weakly, but is equipped with more modern American weapon, the USA, after some pause, will support saudit, relying on the bases in the region. The weapon, investigation, however, without participating in the conflict it is opened. It is policy, traditional for the USA: to support weak against stronger that they killed each other as it is possible more long.

So far the reaction wished for the USA isn't present. Perhaps, understanding of such unenviable prospect also caused intensity between the USA and saudita, and they decided to try to fill in this strategy of Washington with the cheap oil, despite financial losses. The budget of Saudi Arabia after all goes to pieces, but the country has currency reserves. At the same time serious costs are incurred also by producers of slate oil in the USA, Russia and other oil-producing countries. And all of them are incited against saudit … What if it too the strategy planned by Washington?

The Iranian diplomacy is considered, by the way, very qualified, and precipitate steps too doesn't take. The Foreign Minister of Iran in Davos answered a direct question of the conflict to SA: war between Iran and Saudi Arabia won't be.

Really, Tehran can appear in two-front war: Saudi in pro-Shiite Southern Iraq, and Turkish in Northern Iraq where IGIL behind which there is Turkey isn't crushed yet. All this is known, but the western allies of Turkey in an emphasis don't see.

Evidence of strategy of the great power doesn't do it impossible because it is pressed through, in this case, by all power of the USA. In principle, it is possible to provoke Iran, won't achieve the necessary reaction, under the promise of Washington, part of loyal princes of Saudi Arabia yet, to fall then upon it all power, as upon Saddam Hussein.

So far saudita refuse to execute blindly orders from Washington, and fill in the world with cheap oil, but provocative execution al-Nimra — is a disturbing call. Washington has a lot of secret leverage on the Saudi princes. In its continuation can organize and an incident bleach (war cause) between Saudi Arabia and Iran, for example, to shoot down the passenger plane, the region after all it is stuffed with the modern weapon …

In case of escalation of the conflict, Russia it is necessary to support Iran, and the mediated war of the USA — Russia on Middle Eastern TVD is easily looked through further. All wars, eventually, come to an end with some world, but the largest oil-producing countries of the region will be in ruins, and the world market is seized by slate oil of the USA.

… When world politics make statements for commitment to the world, we won't forget that the Big-time politics are accompanied often by big lie.

Victor Kamenev


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение