What will it be, the new world order? Hard to say, but still try to consider the fact that there are today three sides of the triangle, i.e., pairwise relationships of three main participants in the Big game.
USA — Russia. A new arms race
Once commonplace and every day, it was announced the participation of Russia in a new arms race. Wait a minute, You say, what is the rush? Who announced, when? If you call a spade a spade, it is so, Russia has entered the active phase of the arms race with the United States.
Report of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly in 2018 is very important for further understanding and I will quote it many times, so I suggest you to read my article until the end and then re-watch this video:
Essentially, the message says two things:
- Contracts, somehow restraining the arms race, has lost its meaning;
- It became possible to publicly present new types of weapons, and the main: "Sarmat", "Dagger" and an unnamed submarine system.
In my opinion, this report was the announcement to the public of the start of a new arms race.
How did the USA react to such saber rattling? Traditionally accusing Russia, in 2018 the US has announced the release of the restrictive INF Treaty, and on 2 August 2019 withdraw from it completely.
Three days after this event, on 5 August 2019
Vladimir Putin held a prompt meeting with the members of the security Council because of the US withdrawal from the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range
and on the same day under Achinsk there is an emergency. Coincidence? Perhaps, but let's look more broadly at the number of iconic events of the summer of 2019.
"Catastrophe on a planetary scale"
"Losharik" was the title of a top-secret Russian submarine "the system" because of the similarity of its polifonicheskie design with cartoon character.
1 July 2019, on Board the underwater station was an emergency, in which killed the elite of the Russian submarine fleet, 7 captains of the first rank, among them two heroes of Russia, three second rank captain, two captain of the third rank, the captain-Lieutenant and Lieutenant-Colonel of the medical service. A huge tragedy.
Let us recall another tragedy that occurred 19 years ago. On a nuclear submarine "Kursk" during a training exercise in 2000 killed 10 times more sailors, but among them only two of the captain 1 rank.
On top secret the "Losharik" serve only the officers. This allows to assess the scale of the incident, which took half of the crew. Mourning ceremony of farewell to the divers was led by the assistant to the commander of the Navy Sergei Pavlov, the captain of 1 rank.
They shared a common fate. The cost of their lives saved the lives of his comrades, save the ship and prevent catastrophe on a planetary scale, Nikolay Pavlov told about the dead.
What could have happened such that there was a planetary catastrophe? Allow yourself to resort again to the comparison with the "Kursk", which had two nuclear reactors and 24 protivogistaminnyh powerful missiles. But in the case of the perished "Kursk" was not the threat of a disaster of this scale, at the same time as surviving the "Losharik" such a threat existed.
Unlikely we'll ever know the truth.
I'll guess that the super secret "Losharik" is the unnamed submarine, the "system" referred to in the report.
According to my hypothesis, the United States decided to put a surgical pre-emptive strikes on the declared new types of weapons, with the aim to stop further development at any cost. Open statement about it would lead to a global military crisis, which would be stronger than the Caribbean and do not need any of the parties. All that remains is the phrase "planetary catastrophe", delivered at the funeral of the heroes-submariners.
If the hypothesis is correct, then what happens with the other two potential targets point-emptive strikes?
Explosions under Achinsk
Exactly five weeks after the incident with the "Losharik", the fifth of August, about five o'clock in the afternoon there was an emergency under Achinsk. At 17:17 local time there was an anomalous force of the explosion, unusually for ammunition, which were stored in the warehouse.
In the comments to the first part of the article has sparked heated discussion about the type of explosion, nuclear, vacuum, "chemical" or even "paraffin with aluminum shavings". Well, not discussed seriously, which exploded "dry ice".
If You think I'm making this up and "dry ice" simply can not cause any serious explosion, look at the consequences of the incident with a fatal outcome, which occurred on 8 August under Nazarovo on the way from the same Achinsk through the Stove, where it exploded warehouses in Uzhur. Officially blew up the truck carrying dry ice.
But not so important that exploded, how — where it exploded. The explosions are localized on the highway Achinsk — heater — Nazarovo — Uzhur.
In the distance on a highway about 120 kilometers from exploding warehouses and about 100 kilometers from the exploded under the truck Nazarovo is a town of Uzhur-4, BUT renamed to "solar". On the territory is the military unit 32441, she's 62nd Uzhurskaya missile red banner division named after the 60th anniversary of the USSR.
62nd division — the elite strategic rocket forces. On arms division is almost a quarter of the nuclear potential of Russia. Currently, 62-I'm armed "Governors", which are as terrible, but outdated weapons, Putin said in his address, announced "Sarmat" as a substitute "Governor". Is there Uzhur-4 must come first "Sarmatians", which produces "Krasnoyarsk machine-building plant", located all in the same place, about 180 kilometres from Achinsk.
In 2021 on combat duty to intercede first missile regiment armed with the "Sarmatians". It will be one of the regiments of the 62nd red banner missile Uzhurskaya division strategic missile forces.
The strange coincidence between the explosions and the location of the 62nd division? I don't think. Again make the assumption that it was a well planned diversion from the United States. Let me explain.
The basic idea of the "Sarmatian" is to reduce the start time from 15 minutes to as the "Governor" to several tens of seconds, making it impossible to hit the "Sarmat" to launch the heavy missiles of the United States, which simply do not have time to fly, with flight times around 10 minutes. "Governor" will simply intercept, as emphasized in his address, Putin and "Sarmat" — no time.
My hypothesis about the point of warning strikes, the US has shown that it is much easier to sabotage directly on the territory of the military unit that negates all the advantages of the "Sarmatian". For warning shots chose the part that previously belonged to the SRF and are located in sufficient proximity to 62 divisions, and from the plant producing "Sarmatians" and sabotage, showing that the full power of the new "wunderwaffe" can be negated by ground sabotage. Sort of a risky flick on the nose in the spirit of trump.
Why would the United States not to carry out sabotage with military missile or just not take responsibility? Again — nobody needs a new Cuban missile crisis, and the place and time of diversion (in my hypothesis) has enough information to "read" the message.
"Dagger" or a nuclear power plant
Well, what with the "Dagger", the third announced super-weapon equipped, as it is said in the same statement, "nuclear power plant"?
08 08 2019, on the third day after the explosions under Achinsk, about 8 o'clock in the morning there was "another" incident at a military training ground in the White sea.
8 people injured, five military engineers of "Rosatom" were killed and three hospitalized in a specialized medical institution.
And again under attack — the best specialists, as in the case of "Losharik". And again — it is unclear what exactly exploded and how, as in the case of Achinsk.
Two monitoring stations have stopped communicating after the incident with the rocket. Two days after the explosion under the Severodvinsk station in Dubna and Kirov ceased to transmit information reported in the Organization of the Treaty banning nuclear tests.
UPD: two More monitoring stations in Bilibino and Zalesovo stopped communicating after the explosion.
And another coincidence. On the same day, 08 08 2019 at 8 PM and 20:20 (Oh, and I love numerology in some circles) in Moscow on 4 Federal TV channels for the first time in history have passed the alert.
... many citizens are not seriously alarmed by the warning on the capital "storm". But trouble arose not because of the whims of the elements, and due to the shape alert of the imminent danger. For the first time to inform the population about the near storm-scale connected TV. So much so that some have a slight panic: the number of channels broadcast was temporarily interrupted, and the screen froze, the picture with the logo of the Ministry.
Not to go outside, to hide in the capital building... Not too dramatic for by not taken place of the storm? And on the same day in Severodvinsk had an emergency and was increased background radiation, and the sensors in Dubna, Moscow region and Kirov "suddenly" ceased to transmit data on the radiation background... One coincidence...
As we reported, the incident in the White sea associated with the testing of rocket engines. Short-term increase radiatsionnogo background and what safety measures were taken to Moscow hospital survivors, allows me to make the assumption that with the engine used for nuclear power plant referred to in this report, where "the Dagger", with practically unlimited cruising range, bypasses the "lines of defense".
My hypothesis about the point of warning strikes, the US has deprived Russia of military engineers who participated in the development of nuclear power. In war as in war.
USA — China. Trade war
The word "war" has recently become commonplace to describe trade relations between the two largest world economies — US and China. In the beginning of August 2019 trade war escalated already in the exchange:
The rapid buildup of the trade conflict the United States and China, shocked financial markets in early August. No sooner had the parties to resume the trade talks as President of the United States Donald trump has announced plans to introduce in September a 10 per cent duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion. In response, China allowed the exchange rate to fall below the psychological mark of 7 yuan/$ for the first time since 2008, And Washington has accused Beijing of currency manipulation.
As a result, fell stocks, and the richest businessmen, the US has lost billions of dollars in just one day. And China?
China lost its status as the largest creditor of U.S. debt. China actively reduces the share of treasuries in the gold reserves from the beginning of 2018 As the time when the confrontation with the United States entered into a sharp phrase.
The pressure from trump on the Chinese Corporation Huawei over the fact that the company's revenues increased in the first half of 2019 and the company confidently is closely in third place Apple, whose sales are falling.
China didn't even have to use one more trump card up his sleeve — a de facto monopoly on rare earth metals without which the production of smartphones, electric vehicles that Tesla makes it extremely difficult and expensive, if possible at all.
One belt and one road. One for all, we pay the price
Chinese leader XI Jinping during his visit to Kazakhstan in the autumn of 2013 announced the construction of "One belt and one road". This huge project has already covered 126 countries, project budget: tens of trillions of dollars.
As you can see from the map below, traditional U.S. allies are reluctant to subscribe to the project. The exception is Portugal, which did not succumb to the pressure of the "Troika" of EU, IMF and ECB, and sold its debt to China. Portugal now plays the role of lobby China to the EU, braking uncomfortable for China bills and providing its territory for the development of Chinese business in Europe. And even their new government bonds of Portugal issued in RMB. Very revealing.
China has signed agreements on cooperation in the framework of the initiative "One belt and one road" with 126 countries and 29 international organizations
The United States sharply criticized the project, which even forced China to change the official English name for the "Initiative zone and the path", removing the annoying West the numerals "one". Say, the belt and the path for all, not just for China.
The essence of this Chinese initiative is in the search, formation and promotion of a new model of international cooperation and development through the strengthening of existing regional bilateral and multilateral mechanisms and structures of interactions with China.
Over by vague formulations slips "new model" of international relations and "structures with the participation of China." This is what I wrote above, saying that "we are used to the state system will change beyond recognition".
Once again, what few people understand what the situation is evolving in such a way that will change the very basis of international norms and institutions, in particular — what we call "government". And it would mean the decline of the US in the form in which we are accustomed to see him.
... one of the main elements of the policy of XI Jinping, although this is not yet sufficiently comprehended in the West, is his attempts to change international norms and institutions so that they are more consistent with Chinese values and interests.
In business in the last 20 years has gained popularity of the theory of "disruptive innovation". These are innovations in which old approaches become unviable and simply disappear from the market. "Victims" of disruptive innovation were companies such as Kodak, Pan American, Xerox. Perhaps the next generation will not remember where the word "photocopied".
The same thing happens in politics. China is implementing a "disruptive innovation" in politics and Economics that can make history stories about "democracies" and "totalitarian regimes" by changing the very basis of international norms and institutions.
What shall the future state system in the form of "new models" and "structures involving China", is to predict on the basis of relations, China — Russia, interpolating the current realities of the Central Asian republics, where China already feels like a master.
China — Russia. New Horde
Russia in political and economic terms, on the order above all the fragments of the USSR, forgive me the rest once fraternal peoples. Strategic nuclear capability is preserved only in Russia, which puts it in a somewhat privileged position, in the sense that Russia would be last in the list. And what will be with Russia, is to predict for example the "first" in the list of the countries of Central Asia.
Kazakhstan. The President resigned
It is symbolic that the "One belt and one road" was announced it was in Kazakhstan, at "Nazarbayev University".
Nazarbayev personally met si Tszinpin 19 times in less than 7 years, almost three times every year. This kind of record.
© REUTERS / Jason Lee
"Unexpectedly", as is always the case after almost thirty years of reign, Nazarbayev resigned, while the President is himself a sinologist Tokayev and to perpetuate his name in the capital of Kazakhstan, once again changed its name. The resignation did not prevent the regular meeting of Nazarbayev with the "old friend si" in 2019 where a retired President received another order.
Amazing political longevity of President Nursultan Nazarbayev makes you wonder what caused his voluntary resignation? Being so close to the top of China, the former President could not be better informed of the coming change, when the political post of head of the independent Central Asian States virtually lose their value and remain President would mean "losing face".
In fact, the local Manager receives from China, such as the unifying power of the "new Horde", "shortcut" to reign. Nursultan Nazarbayev chose a better life — to keep influence out trauma the importance of official positions, save face and close communication with the tip of China.
Once again — a post of the President becomes a formality, as well as the entire state structure, with its political, social and security institutions.
Turkmenistan. The President died a little
Many really believe that the President of Turkmenistan, died. Here for example NTV:
On the death of the second President of Turkmenistan told the radio station "Moscow speaking" the Director of the Center for monitoring of the Eurasian problems Aslan Rubaev. He referred to the friends from Ashgabat, who worked in the intelligence community. Official confirmation or refutation of this information yet.
Information was not confirmed, the President only briefly "died" at the end of July 2019. Slightly recovering himself after shocks, Turkmenbashi made a statement. Of course, China. Of course, about the project "One belt and one road", as if he had not noticed before this Grand project is at hand, and then, after a failed "death" — immediately noticed.
President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov was supported by the project of China "One belt and one road", he believes that the project is not contrary to the project of the Turkmenistan for the revival of the silk road.
Even the President can explain that his place, and life itself are worth little if he does not notice the "one zone".
And still did the right thing Nazarbayev that was put by the President of the sinologist. Why such excitement respected person?
Kyrgyzstan. Former President of the day kept the defense
Almazbek Atambayev, during his tenure as President tried to impose to China its vision of the role of Kyrgyzstan. Apparently, he did not understand the essence of the numeral in the title of the project "one belt and one road". There is only "one" Chinese look, and if the President does not share it, so much the worse for the President.
As a close neighbour of China, Kyrgyzstan did not use either one of the joint programme. During consideration of the report of the government for the year 2018 in the Parliament Deputy Kanybek Imanaliev criticized the Cabinet for failing to take advantage of the opportunities offered to Kyrgyzstan China.
Next year China on the development of the silk road in 60 countries allocates a trillion dollars. In the next five years, this amount will grow to eight trillion. But not a single project from Kyrgyzstan there. Our weak government has failed to prepare a single project. Next to us flows a trillion dollars, and we can't take advantage of this opportunity. It is a tragedy.
The tragedy with flowing past a trillion almost turned into a Comedy. 13 June 2019 Chairman XI Jingping arrived in a small Kyrgyzstan. A huge honor and attention from the big neighbor.
In late July, about a month after the visit of President XI in the Parliament deprives the ex-President of Kyrgyzstan immunity. And on August 7, at a time when under Achinsk thundering explosions in Kyrgyzstan played out its drama. The former President, who criticized both the West and China, tried to take with the help of special forces in his residence. The first storm has passed unsuccessfully, the part of the forces surrendered, they were beaten and seized weapons. This once again shows the power of the former President, housego their line. The second time the former President has been arrested, the whole operation took almost a day.
What can be concluded? Either the President is involved in "one zone", or...
Tajikistan. Border on the lock
Tajikistan can now sleep peacefully. Chairman XI Jinping did everything to calm this little Republic on the occasion of his visit in mid-June, right after Kyrgyzstan.
June 14, 2019, the Tajik government signed with China an agreement on development of deposits of silver in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous district (GBAO).
Gorno-Badakhshan on the border with Afghanistan. Turbulent place, and China to protect their investments, 12 August 2019 conducts joint exercises in Tajikistan Gorno-Badakhshan. There has long been ready frontier, China is gratis, a gift, equipped to the fraternal Tajik people. Remained only the military equipment and people to pull.
Of course, this is only the teachings, and the Chinese immediately threw their silver mines and flee home as soon as the training will end. Really?
Many Tajiks believe that their country is no longer sovereign, and fell into such a deep economic dependence on China, that can no longer make your own decisions. For these people the opening of the project of construction of the buildings of the Parliament and the government of Emomali Rahmon and XI Jinping - a symbol of the fact that China took over the administration of the state
The script is simple and economic expansion, then political, then enter a limited military contingent to maintain order and interests of China. Neither of which the military seizure and not talking. All voluntary, all amicably, all on Chinese investment.
Tajikistan clearly visible that "new model" of international relations and "structures with the participation of China."
That is Tajikistan is one of the first States whose role has become formal, and President Emomali Rahmon practically in the open receives the "shortcut to reign" from the President of the si.
Russia. Last in line
Russia, because of its features, is the last in the queue. But the trend is clear, and sooner or later Russia will be the fate of the Central Asian republics. Should not be comforted by the population of Russia it is insignificant compared with China and roughly equal to the population of Nigeria.
Should not be comforted by the strategic nuclear potential — he needs China to pull US into a new arms race to ruin US as once the US destroyed the USSR. China is waging war by different rules and in any other field.
You should not rely on Russia's natural resources — China has included them in its programme development.
We shouldn't delude ourselves that that will choose a Sable or some Obstruction and everything will change. The state apparatus itself is moribund, so the change of personalav not solve anything, as long as the people loyal to China.
What should I do?
First, to move away from the state, to separate the concept of the Motherland from the state, to cease to be a "patriot" in the original sense of the word. To prepare mentally for possible changes.
Secondly, it is possible to prepare "home front" in case (when) the state institutions are unable to perform their obligations.
Third, to realize that war is economic, and arm themselves with understanding what money is and what they will become.
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