While the progressive left see Russian spies around every corner, there's a quite real likelihood that Washington and Moscow will cooperate with each other because of the very good reasons — and very soon.
The two countries have reason to fear the coming changes in the international order — a change that will affect both Russia and the United States. As history shows, the rising power seeking to reshape the international system can make even sworn enemies join forces — and quickly.
It is about gaining the power and influence of China.
Do not be surprised this statement. The truth is that we may stand on the threshold of tremendous changes in how Russia and the U.S. relate to each other, now when they have to confront a far greater enemy. Just to be clear: if current projections hold true, China's economy will one day surpass the economy of Russia and USA combined. And since economic power is necessarily transformirovalsya in the power of the military, the outcome of such developments is quite predictable.
Consider, for example, the current US strategic perspectives. Today Washington is threatened by obvious danger on the part of Beijing, which aims to completely change the existing international system in their favor. The US and China ceased to be close partners, thanks to the end of the cold war, and what allowed them to maintain a working relationship — a thriving partnership in economic and financial spheres with each passing day it becomes less. Because of the theft by China of American intellectual property, a huge trade deficit, which America lost many jobs, as well as theft, probably trillions of dollars and military secrets to Beijing quickly turns into a deadly enemy of Washington.
But the problems do not end there. Between the US and China, there are many geopolitical controversies which at any moment can turn into a surge of tension and, possibly, armed conflict. From the East China and South China seas to Taiwan, the possession of which gives you the ability to control the sea lanes and Straits in Asia, these two powers, apparently ready to fight each other over who will control not only Asia but also the entire Indo-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, in front of Russia, although she may not admit it at the moment, too hot is a Chinese problem. While Moscow and Beijing are negotiating the establishment of close relations, strengthening economic ties and energy deals, as well as the supply of Russian modern military equipment. At least on the surface, the relations between these two powers all right.
But how long this situation cannot continue. In the long term, Moscow is very excite aspirations of China. First, a large-scale Chinese project "One belt, one road" will connect a significant part of the post-Soviet space in Central Asia with China, causing the country to be in the orbit of China. Given the large energy sdelok between the former Soviet republics and China, as well as more serious economic advantages of cooperation with China than with Russia, Moscow must be concerned that some part of its "near abroad" can go under almost complete control of Beijing.
Further, there is an adverse imbalance of military power, which over the years will only continue to grow — and not in favor of Moscow. To the extent that, as China continues to receive from Russia, modern military equipment such as antiaircraft missile systems s-400, or su-35, China with a high probability will go to the theft and reproduction of these technologies, as it was before. Then China can include these technologies in their development or begin to sell them at a lower price, directly competing with Moscow on a lucrative arms market. An even greater danger for Russia is the possibility that the Russian technology could be used against her in the event of a collision between Chinese and Russian troops — as history shows, this possibility also should not be entirely excluded.
Finally, Moscow and Beijing have a complicated past, and one day, China might want to correct the injustice. When Chinese officials talk about the century of humiliation, many as a result of unfair agreements and transactions with Western European States. Meanwhile, Beijing is considering a number of territories of Asian Russia as a territory rightfully belonging to China, so one day, when he will become even stronger, Beijing can make claims on certain areas, as already happens in the case of a number of Islands in the South China sea. When you consider that Beijing is already speaking with claims to Okinawa, Vladivostok could be his next territorial demand.
Although the formation of such an Alliance may not happen right now, and armed confrontation, say, over Ukraine or Syria may delay or even completely destroy all chances for geopolitical partnership, there is a very real possibility that in the future Russia and America will unite to confront China. In the past there were much more strange alliances. Although today we have all grounds to consider Russia as a rogue state, tomorrow it may become our partner in containing common enemy. Until the story and circumstances are not on anyone's side.
Harry Kazianis (Harry J. Kazianis)
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