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Central Asia on the eve of the withdrawal of U.S. troops and NATO from Afghanistan. Evaluation expert of the Arab community
Material posted: Publication date: 28-12-2014

According to the assessment of Arab experts, the regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus in the last decade has acquired a special strategic importance, becoming an arena of geopolitical confrontation in which the U.S., Israel and Turkey, on the one hand, seek to confront Russia and China on the other. According to the existing estimates of the recognized and unrecognized States and regions of post-Soviet space has ceased to be an exclusively Russian sphere of influence. In the current situation of the Arab countries have minimal capacity to conduct its own regional policy in Central Asia.

The Israeli presence in the region

Systematic and professional development of the relations at the political, diplomatic and military-technical level between Israeli rukovodstvom and leadership in the region is one of the key reasons why Arab countries cannot obtain a sufficient effect in those countries where Israel managed to gain a foothold in government positions.

Experts believe that the geographical proximity of Iran has prompted Israel and the U.S. to intensify military and intelligence activities from the territory of neighboring States in the region. Activity against Iran takes place under the guise of "fighting terrorism and Islamism", which in fact only increases domestic tensions in the region. In addition, relying on the United States and Western allies, Israel is seeking to strengthen its own position in Central Asia.

With the collapse of the USSR, Israel had the opportunity to perform in a politically and economically weakened the region's military and economic projects. For example, to invest in important sectors such as the oil industry. Israel presents these activities as the initiative to provide economic assistance to post-Soviet countries. Today the activities of Israeli companies in the region is a significant phenomenon, and Israel's presence is assessed as "strong and durable".

A number of experts noted that in March 1992 by the efforts of Israel in Tashkent organized the first economic forum and in October of the same year the President of Uzbekistan paid an official visit to Israel. Signed a number of agreements on cooperation in the fields of agriculture, natural resources, communications, banking, science, medicine, etc. were Also developed laws for the protection of investments, customs benefits. Official visits and agreements opened the way for Israeli companies to the region. To support the activity of their companies, the Israeli government created the Bank of economic information. The steps taken were to strengthen ties with Israel by region and is based in Tashkent cultural center, which was to spread the ideas and culture of Zionism among the Jewish population and other residents of Uzbekistan, is designed to help you complete this task.

Among the enabling factors for the conduct of the Israeli policy livenske experts, which participated in the formation of the assessment of the situation in the Central Asian region, called the lack of historic enmity between Israel and the countries of the region. Close political and economic ties between Turkey and Israel allowed Israeli arms manufacturers to the markets of the Turkic-speaking countries in the region.

Regional initiatives in Israel takes an active part of the local Jewish community, most of which, however, emigrated to Israel, where he assumed the functions of the lobbyist.

During the presidency of Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan in 2005-2010 administration of the presidential Palace on 15% consisted of ethnic Jews. In some cases, on behalf of the President of the conference acted as his Secretary, a Jew by nationality.

Conducted in the region a variety of events and workshops with the participation of Israeli doctors, the representatives of Saudi experts estimate as Israel's attempt to fix its reputation in the Islamic countries to take favorable political-economic niches. Experts believe that the most important geopolitical goals of the USA and its ally Israel are the Caucasus and Central Asia, where it is attempting to "shape zapadoceska political currents and blocs".

Special attention in their view it requires the Israeli strategy in Kazakhstan, which is the main partner of Israel in Central Asia. Less notable successes in Uzbekistan, where Islamic religious activity reduces the effectiveness of Israel's policy, as well as Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, interested in rapprochement with Russia, Iran and Turkey.

According to Saudi experts, the failure of the color revolution in Georgia, funded by the U.S. brokered Israel, and the incapability of the government of Mikhail Saakashvili, has forced Israel to shift to the partnership with Azerbaijan, which owns large reserves of oil and gas and can be used as a "tool of economic pressure" on Russian and Chinese interests in the region, in addition, it directly borders with Israel, hostile to Iran.

Azerbaijan is the arena of confrontation between US and Iran and Israel. Referring to the study of Iranian scholar Ahmad Kazemi, the experts noted that Israel and Azerbaijan began to build relationships since the 90-ies, was created "Society of Azerbaijani-Israeli friendship", the political activity which was veiled by the slogan of rapprochement between Jews of the United States and Azerbaijan. In 1995, between Israel and Azerbaijan signed a bilateral agreement on security in 2001, Azerbaijan has recognized the right of Israel to the land of Palestine. For this reason, the authorities of Azerbaijan are strictly forbidden to participate in Pro-Palestinian initiatives of any kind. In the future, experts predict an increase based policy of Azerbaijan from Israel.

With the beginning of the so-called "Arab spring" and the growing influence and weight of Islamism Israeli think tanks have begun to develop a new strategy of Israel. In particular, the study center, "Jerusalem", indicate that associated with the "Arab spring" risks to the security of Israel, Israeli experts estimate that as a minimum, with regard to the Islamist threat, the appropriate response is the establishment of bilateral relations with Muslim countries, including Central Asian States. This strategy is built with the expectation of, if not friendship, then at least, for loyalty and it will form a different image of Israel in the eyes of Muslim societies. Emerging in the region, Islamist movements are used by Israel in order to terrorize the local population and achieving its own economic and strategic goals.
Under the guise of fighting against terrorism in the region, Israel could also participate in military and intelligence actions. Held on the territory of the region, military exercises involving Israel, with the purpose to demonstrate its military power.

The rapprochement of positions of Russia and Iran and the cooperation in the field of nuclear energy is regarded by Israel as extremely dangerous phenomenon. Political and economic vulnerability of the countries of the region provides an exceptional opportunity for rapprochement with them Israel, which will also strengthen its position in the Caucasus.

An important role is given to the role and importance of Kazakhstan, which has in addition to the rich oil and gas resources. On the territory of Kazakhstan there are more than 50 Israeli companies and organizations. Using the existing format of relations with Kazakhstan Israel tries to get a role in the "great game" of Russia, China, the US and the EU. However, a number of States in the region have adjusted their position in relation to Israel and the USA after the events of the "Arab spring".

Turkish presence in the region

Representatives of the Egyptian analyst community suggest that competition of regional and world powers for influence in Central Asia, has forced Turkey to sit on the fence on the issue of unification of the Turkic republics of the region under Turkish protectorate. This initiative reflects the desire of the Turkish state to counter the influence of China, USA, Iran and Israel in the region.

In 1992 in Turkey, was convened the first Summit of the Turkic languages, however, the complexity of the project did not allow Turkey to rely only on their strength. Turkey fails to solve the problem with some of the republics. As an example, experts indicate which began in 2000, tensions between the Turkish authorities and of Uzbekistan in connection with the question of extradition from Ankara the leaders of the Uzbek opposition. Tashkent even voiced accusations against some Turkish organizations, indicating of their religious propaganda on the territory of the Republic. After in 2005 the President of Uzbekistan for undeclared reasons, has cancelled his official visit to Ankara, the parties ceased to communicate at the highest level, referring to a quotation from one of the Turkish political scientists, experts indicate that a similar situation was also observed in the case of the Turkmen-Turkish relations. As a result, despite the efforts of Turkey, the summit of Turkic language States in 2010 were absent from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

According to experts close to the Qatari Agency "al Jazeera", formed by the fall of the USSR, the strategic vacuum in Central Asia, is filled with new actors, among which the most important are Iran, Turkey and China.

Cultural-historical community with a number of Central Asian republics, as well as interests in the energy sector define the main vectors in Turkey's policy in the region. The collapse of the Soviet Empire has revived "the lost Turkish dream" of creating a strong Union of the Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus.

According to the assessment of Qatari experts, multilateral cooperation with regional and international centers of power the former Soviet republics of the region is considered as the ability to exit the zone of influence of Russia. In addition, competition for influence in the region among political and regional centers is considered a local "dictatorial regimes" as a way to establish control over the resources of the region "away from the hype of the West regarding democracy and respect for human rights".

The American presence in the region

Jordanian experts believe that close attention to the Central Asian region from the United States due to the desire of the United States to establish full control over the axis of Iran-Afghanistan-China-Russia.

The USA are making significant efforts to take control of the leaders of the countries of the region, in particular Uzbekistan. The US resorted to "legal and illegal" measures (espionage and recruitment of agents) by the staff of the American Embassy in Tashkent.

Applying the method of "color revolutions" in Ukraine and Georgia, the United States tried a similar way to get rid of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, who initially resisted the pressure, but then turned into an obedient puppet. Respectively, if first, the United States criticized the Uzbek authorities pursued domestic policies, soon close cooperation in the military sphere, the provision of the Tashkent aviation base at the disposal of the U.S. military has provided Uzbekistan favor of the United States. Developing the topic the metamorphosis of the Uzbek-American relations, the expert noted that President Islam Karimov, taking advantage of the favorable geographical position of the country, actively participated in the initiative of the USA in ensuring security of oil and gas pipelines passing through the territory of the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia bypassing Russia and Iran. He followed his own interests, trying to get as many dividends from cooperation with NATO and to leave the zone of Russian influence.

Analyzing the situation in Kyrgyzstan in the light of rivalry between Russia and USA for influence in the region, the number of sources in the circles of Egyptian experts (some of which are associated with the organization "Muslim Brothers") paying attention to two "people's revolution" in 2005 and 2010, planned by the US in the first case, and from Russia in the second. It is indicated that the "people's revolution" 2005. was the result of a thorough study of the Kyrgyz society of the USA, where he realized that Russian economic influence in the country, you can oppose the concept of the "struggle for democracy". Despite the presence of a large number of Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia and powerful levers of socio-economic pressure from Russia, the United States has made a cultural conquest of Kyrgyzstan, opening in the capital American University – the birthplace of the Kyrgyz national cadres. In the end, made the US policy failed in 2005, easily overthrow the former President of the Republic Askar Akayev, who opened the doors for US and lead to power Kurmanbek Friend or "Bucky" as he was called by the Americans.

Conclusion

A mid-term analysis of the development situation in Central Asia and the Caucasus allows to draw the following conclusions.
Islamism, unsteadiness and vulnerability of the ruling regime and statehood, the presence of the geopolitical interests of centers of power, who has the ability to operate in Central Asia, qualitatively changes the balance of power in the region.

A number of countries and leading powers are actively using the circumstances are such as to oust the traditional geopolitical players and to strengthen its position. It is first and foremost about China, however, is to be expected in the centre of attention was the actions of Israel and Turkey in the region. It is the policy and strategy of these States that are strategic allies of the United States, today forced the Arab world to pursue a more active policy in order to neutralize possible adverse effects. In the processes in Central Asia inevitably becomes involved and Azerbaijan.

Close cooperation between the U.S. and Israel in Central Asia takes place within the concept of the "struggle against terrorism and Islamism" and aims to provide primarily long-term presence in the region and through the demonization of the Arab world in the eyes of the population to ensure loyalty to Israel.

The solution of the problem of consolidation in the region requires the US of creating conditions for permanent instability and instability in Central Asia. It is desirable that the instability of the periodically acquired a military component, for the neutralization of which in the region must present a "peacekeeping contingent", to stabilize the situation, if she will go out of control. As it is paradoxical will sound, but the consequence of this strategy is the support of militant Islamism, are in a position to create the necessary level of tension, allowing geopolitical centers to talk about the necessity of its presence in the region.

Support of political Islamism poses a threat to traditional Islam and the cultural and historical linkages between Central Asia and the Arab world, which could rely on the Arab countries.

From this point of view, the interest is the interview of the leader of Tajik Islamic party Islamist Egyptian portal "Onislam". Note that the portal provides to the Saudi preacher Salman al-Audu, chief editor of the portal Islamist "Islamtoday" and an ardent opponent of Gamal Abdel Nasser and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Salman al-Oud does not deny that the plan of a foreign invasion of Syria is directly linked to the issue of ensuring Israel's security. In the case of foreign intervention in Syria, he said, the probability of attacks on militants is extremely low, as it is "contrary to generally accepted moral and legal norms".

Interesting is the fact that social media sometimes instead of pictures of al-awda uses the symbol of the movement of the Muslim brotherhood – raised up the palm of black color on a yellow background with pressed to the center of the palm with the thumb. Commenting on the nature of this symbol, some experts results pictures of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan members of the organization of the Muslim brotherhood, American actress, wife of Prince of Monaco grace Kelly, where they are sealed up, with palms pressed to the center of the palm with the thumb. According to experts, the specified character is Mason-Zionist. In Egypt, it has gained popularity since the crackdown of supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi.

Regarding the strengthening of ties of Central Asia with the Arab world in the economic sphere, it can be stated that the initiatives remain at the level of reasoning of experts and theoretical options. The impression that the Arab countries accept the limitation of its political, cultural and economic role in Central Asia.

Considering the complicated relations of Turkey with the Turkic republics of the region, Israel, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, sticking to the focus on Russia and Iran, we can assume that the role of potential partners in the Arab countries in the region at the initial stage could be Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. In any case, the intention to enter into the region will inevitably face stiff competition from regional and geopolitical power centers, already present in Central Asia and is a non-trivial task.

Armine Hakobyan


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