Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
The Taliban and its role in the formation of the military-political situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Material posted: Publication date: 14-11-2019
The modern realities of the development of the military-political situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, despite the presence there of the military contingent of the USA and their attempt to raise the combat potential of the Afghan army remain difficult. With each passing year becomes more and more tense, the situation in the country is characterized by increasing instability, as well as the increase of the territories under the control of various terrorist groups.

The vast majority of people see the Taliban threat of terrorists, Islamic fanatics, aggressive-minded against the whole progressive mankind.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (hereinafter IEA) was established by the Taliban in 1996. In the control of the state was Islam, and Islam in the most strict interpretation. All life is subordinate to Sharia law.

The movement United the graduates of Islamic religious schools – madrassas. One of the military leaders of Pakistan said that a chain of such schools was established by the United States as a "religious-ideological zone" along the Afghan-Pakistani border to maintain the morale of the Mujahideen. In addition to conventional religious subjects in these schools and practiced military training. [1]

The organizers and patrons made the Pakistani inter-services intelligence (ISI), to supply them with weapons and trained in combat operations, and the Minister of internal Affairs of Pakistan, General N. Babar. Support for the movement was provided by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

By the end of 1998, the Taliban regime was officially recognized by only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, Saudi Arabia has recalled its chargé d'affaires from Kabul, Afghanistan support to the Afghan Islamists international terrorist Osama bin Laden settled in Afghanistan. In 1996-1998, the Taliban tried to gain official recognition. Their delegation visited in Western Europe, the USA, met with influential Afghan exiles, including the former king, Zahir Shah. However, the world community represented by the UN Security Council has condemned the political practice of the new rulers of Kabul. The Taliban, despite its representative to the UN, and failed to obtain accreditation.

The tragic events of 11 September 2001 In the United States was a turning point in Afghan history. Committing acts of terrorism, the perpetrators caused the response of the international community. In response, the US and its NATO allies unleashed its military power to the Afghan Taliban, which turned the country with the help of led by terrorist Osama bin Laden, the extremist organization "al-Qaeda" in the largest hotbed of international terrorism. As a result of the anti-terrorist operation was broken administrative, military and ideological machine of the Taliban. [2]

In March 2001 the Taliban regime sparked protest from the world community after contrary to the cases of UNESCO and several countries (including Pakistan) by the Taliban in the Bamiyan valley were blown up by giant statues of the Buddha, whose age totaled over 1500 years: the Taliban considered them to be calling for the destruction of idols. [3] the Destruction of the Bamiyan statues was associated, in particular, the continued growing influence of "al-Qaeda", and later even claimed that the kill order was given directly to bin Laden. [4] strengthening the position of the bin Laden emphasized the fact that in the summer of 2001 he was perceived as a person, which determines the foreign policy of the Taliban; [5] in late August, there were also reports that he was appointed commander of the Taliban.

9 September 2001 in a suicide attack organized by the "al-Qaeda", was mortally wounded by one of the major figures of the anti-Taliban Alliance, Ahmad Shah Massoud. Two days later, on 11 September, several members of "al-Qaeda" hijacked four civilian aircraft and guided three of them into the world trade center in new York and the Pentagon in Washington, causing the death of 2974 people. 20 September, US President George Bush presented the Taliban an ultimatum with the requirement to extradite leaders of "al-Qaeda", the Taliban leadership is again required to provide evidence linking bin Laden to the attacks and confirmed that it is ready to hold court only on the territory of Afghanistan.

After the failure of the Taliban the extradition of bin Laden September 22, 2001 on the rupture of diplomatic relations with the Taliban regime has announced the United Arab Emirates, and on 25 September they were joined by Saudi Arabia. October 7, 2001 NATO countries - the US and its European allies began the bombing of Afghanistan, while providing support to the troops of the Northern Alliance. November 21, the Taliban lost control of Kabul. Swift victory of the coalition forces over the Taliban was associated with the use of NATO forces special strategy - active air strikes, almost not accompanied by ground operations and thus did not give the Taliban the ability to resist.

Initially, the Taliban were mainly in the area of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, although over time their influence again spread to some other parts of Afghanistan. NATO troops, in turn, were forced to continue accompanied by loss of the operation against the Taliban.

The revival of the Taliban was due to the influx of madrasah new members motion: in the opinion of some experts, the continued destruction of NATO forces commanders of the movement brought to power a new generation of Islamists even more radical than the former. At this time the movement was not limited to the struggle with the coalition, it has also attacked mosques, where imams professed moderate Islam, medical institutions and schools, which were attended by international organizations. At the same time becoming more common in Afghanistan have been abducted by Taliban foreigners, accompanied by demands for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

In the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007, there were reports of major operations of the armed forces of NATO and Afghan government forces against the Taliban. However, in late 2006 the Minister for foreign Affairs of Pakistan Khurshid Kasuri called on NATO to admit defeat in the war with the Taliban and begin talks with him, and in April 2007, Karzai acknowledged that he had met with representatives of the Taliban.

By 2008, the main tactic of the Taliban was to make forays into Afghanistan from Pakistan, what were related the joint action of the Pakistani army and NATO forces on the Afghan-Pakistan border. In 2008, the movement has significantly increased its activity in Afghanistan: summer of the representatives of NATO forces in the country said that the frequency of organized attacks by the Taliban increased by 40 percent compared to the previous year. In particular, in April 2008, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the firing of the guests of the gala parade in Kabul attended by President Karzai and the ambassadors of the USA and the UK. Against the background of increasing activity by the Taliban in the fall in the press again began to appear regularly reports about the secret negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government brokered by king Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, although their conduct is officially not a single party was not recognized. In November 2008, President Karzai has offered to hold direct talks with the Taliban and vowed to ensure the safety of their leader Mullah Omar, but the Taliban declared impossibility of negotiations before the complete withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan. At the same time, according to some, the local Taliban group were regularly receiving funds from NATO and coalition forces serving companies for the abandonment of hostilities and attacks on army convoys: in particular, as it became clear in the fall of 2009, the bribery of the Taliban was actively engaged in by representatives of the Italian contingent.

In November 2008 U.S. President was elected Democrat Barack Obama, who during his campaign promised to focus on the fight against extremism in Afghanistan. In connection with the Afghan problem in March 2009, Obama and Vice-President of the USA Joe Biden admitted the possibility of negotiating with moderate Taliban, but the Taliban rejected the idea, stressing that their movement is one, he has one policy and one leader. [6]

Before the next presidential elections in Afghanistan, held in August 2009, the Taliban actively intimidate the population of the Pashtun southern areas of the country, which are expected substantive support to run for a second term of President Karzai. In particular, the Taliban promised to cut off people's fingers if they are found traces of the special ink used in the voting. On election day, 20 August, the Taliban organized a series of terrorist attacks and even stormed one of the southern cities, with the result that voter turnout has been significantly reduced. However, shortly after the election, Karzai proclaimed his victory. [7]

Tried to prevent the Taliban parliamentary elections in September 2010, intimidating voters with violence. According to reports NATO, just for the day of the election occurred nearly five hundred armed incidents and killed about twenty people, but the elections did take place. In the same year it was repeatedly reported about the Taliban attacks on NATO forces and bases of government troops in Afghanistan.

July 12, 2011 the Taliban has claimed responsibility for the murder of the younger brother of President Karzai, Ahmad Wali, Chairman of the Council of people's representatives of the province of Kandahar. [8]

20 September in Kabul in a suicide attack committed by one of the contact persons of the Taliban, that killed former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, who headed the High Council of reconciliation - a body, trying to establish relations with the Taliban. According to experts, this murder has questioned the possibility of further attempts of the authorities of Afghanistan to negotiate with Taliban. [9]

By 2015, the movement opposed the NATO forces in Afghanistan, currently continues to wage war against Afghan and Pakistani government troops. [10]

NATO supports efforts aimed at a political resolution of the longstanding Afghan conflict, said yesterday NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Speaking at a press conference, the head of NATO said that the Alliance does not intend to take part in political negotiations, but supports them by political means.

Over the past few months the American side maintains contact with the Taliban, but negotiations take place without the participation of official Kabul. No involvement of the Afghan side in dialogue with the rebel movement has raised questions, however, the head of NATO defended the tactics of negotiation chosen by Washington. The main contribution of NATO in the peace process is to support and train the Afghan guards, since the results of these efforts are designed to convince the Taliban that victory is the last on the battlefield.

Pakistan. Large interests in Afghanistan is neighboring Pakistan. Noting the interest of Pakistan, it is necessary, first, to emphasize that Pakistan is a "key" to resolving the political and military situation in Afghanistan. For the realization of its geopolitical interests Pakistan has its own specific leverage. For example, Pakistan has practical experience in the field of arming and training militants, able at the time able to cope quite successfully in Afghanistan the forces of the Soviet Army, and in the face of prepared by them, the Taliban demonstrating the ability to overthrow the legitimate government of Afghanistan and pose a serious threat to the security of the entire region. It is particularly noteworthy that the military-political leadership of Pakistan, strengthening leadership in Central and South Asia (in 90 years), participated in the preparation of the movement "Taliban", which it is actively used for the solution of the Afghan problem in their interests. Secondly, Afghanistan in the view of the Pakistani military-political leadership is their sphere of influence. Afghanistan is perceived by Islamabad as a "rear area", and Pakistan will make every effort to preserve this status. The military elite of Pakistan considers Afghanistan as its strategic resource. First of all, as a space that can accommodate non-governmental groups and terrorist groups operating in Pakistan's interests. Afghanistan also provides some strategic depth for the armed forces of Pakistan. [11]

Pakistan has always played an important role in the political Affairs of Afghanistan. On its territory during the war with the Soviet Union found refuge Mujahideen in the camps were training recruits, Pakistan has become a haven for many Afghan refugees. Therefore, in the time between the Afghans and Pakistanis have developed strong ties. In addition, a significant number of Pashtuns lived in Pakistan and had ties with Afghan Pashtuns, many had family ties. We should not forget that between Pakistan and India constantly clashes over Kashmir. Major clash occurred on the night of September 29, 2016 the government of Pakistan was very interested in the stability of its Western border, and this stability could only give the Taliban, as other groups were unreliable.

After the Taliban staged a strong rally in Kandahar, and given the obvious popular support enjoyed by the movement, Islamabad was willing to bet on the Taliban to increase the influence of Pakistan in areas with Pashtun populations. Progress in Afghanistan, including the establishment and strengthening of the Taliban – it was a sacred mission, which was supported by all the Islamabad government, including the government of Bhutto, and which was brought to life by ISI. [12]

After the attacks of 11 September 2001, Pakistan was forced to reconsider its position towards the Taliban, as the US demanded cooperation from Pakistan for operation enduring freedom. President Pervez Musharraf had to make a choice on whose side to be. The Americans, in turn, offered substantial financial assistance to Pakistan. [13] Since then, the Pakistanis began to play a double game: in some ways they helped US, but still continued to support the Taliban. For example, some of the Taliban leaders were transferred by them to the Americans, there have been several military operations to eliminate the bases of some groups. But the Taliban were free to cross the Afghan-Pakistan border, to conduct propaganda in the mass media, etc. In some cases the Pakistani military and ISI even helped them.

Iran. Relations between Iran and the IEA were contradictory. On the one hand, Iran has provided financial support to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. On the other hand, between them there was a serious disagreement. At one time Iran was planning to declare war on the Taliban. The most difficult stage of the Afghan-Iranian relations was recorded in 1998, when the Taliban, earlier seized power in Afghanistan, attacked the Iranian Consulate in Mazar and shot there employees and diplomats. After this incident, Iran was planning a military invasion of Afghanistan, but the intervention of the UN Security Council and the United States forced the Iranians to abandon these plans. Note that after the coming to power of the radical Sunni Taliban national minorities of Afghanistan, who were treated Hazaras are Shia Muslims began to suffer persecution and repression. This, in turn, has complicated the relations between Iran and Taliban Afghanistan. Tehran has repeatedly expressed its indignation at this state of Affairs. Subsequently, Iran began to support intitalize the Northern Alliance, consisting of national minorities of Afghanistan, against the Taliban. [14]

The Iranian authorities and the Taliban cooperate in the fight against terrorist group "Islamic state".

Tehran and the Taliban are at odds with each other for many decades, but the heyday of ISIS has United like never before, two historical enemies. Iran is cooperating with the Taliban with the aim of creating a buffer zone along the border with Afghanistan to prevent the infiltration of ISIS into their territory.

Tehran provides located along the border to the Taliban money and small quantities of weapons of relatively low quality, including machine guns, ammunition and rocket-propelled grenades. [15]

Hundreds of fighters of the Taliban are training in Iran, experience with opponents of the official Kabul and Washington share of local officers of the special forces. The scale, quality and duration of this training can become a factor in the shift in the Afghan armed conflict and even influence its outcome.

Training for militants began in the spring of 2018 – around the time when the President of the United States Donald trump announced the unilateral withdrawal of the United States of the "nuclear bargain" between Tehran and the six international mediators in 2015. [16]

At the end of 2018 Tehran held talks with the radical movement "Taliban" to resolve the security situation in Afghanistan and intends to continue this course.

In Afghanistan there is a confrontation between government forces and militants of the radical movement "Taliban", which previously captured significant territory in rural areas of the country and launched a major offensive against the city. [17]

The current security situation and the death of the General, the responsibility for which was assumed by the Taliban, was the reason for the growth of alarm in Afghan society and doubts about the effectiveness of efforts by Kabul and NATO to ensure order in the country. [18]

The foreign Ministers of NATO meeting in Brussels, pledged to support the negotiation of Kabul with the Taliban after 17 years of war the Alliance in Afghanistan and urged the Taliban to sit at the negotiating table. This is stated in the final Declaration of the North Atlantic Council at level of heads the Ministry of foreign Affairs, published 05.12.2018 G.

The Afghan government repeatedly tried to enter into negotiations with representatives of the Taliban, but they put forward pre-conditions: the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the recognition of their legitimate political force. In 2018 to negotiate with the Taliban tried USA: informal consultations were held in the Qatar office of the Taliban, although the Department of state the facts of the meetings are not officially confirmed. Currently, the Kabul military is gradually losing control over the regions where enhanced the position of the Taliban and the more radical Islamist groups, some of which already declare themselves to be supporters of and even the receivers of the terrorist organization "Islamic state" (IG, is prohibited in Russia). [19]

 

The list of sources

  1. Sikoev R. R. the Prospects for postwar Afghanistan "collection.stat. EVRAN// Afghanistan: problems of war and peace. M. 1996. Pp. 184-185.
  2. Ganiev T. A. Analysis and forecasting of military-political situation in foreign countries. Republic Of Afghanistan: Part 1. - M. WU, 2004. P. 111-114.
  3. The Taliban: Afghanistan''s fundamentalist leaders. [Electronic resource] — CBC News, 21.03.2006. – Mode of access: https://www.cbc.ca/news2/background/afghanistan/taliban.html. Date of access: 28.01.2019.
  4. The Taliban Islamist enterprises operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan [Electronic resource] — Mode of access: https://lenta.ru/lib/14162689/full/ - date of access: 28.10.2019.
  5. Аhmed Rashid. The Taliban - First, the War: A new Bush policy aims at the Taliban, though the final target is still Osama bin Laden [Electronic resource]. — Far Eastern Economic Review, 02.08.2001– Mode of access: https://www.rferl.org/a/1097442.html - date of access: 28.10.2019.
  6. The Taliban Islamist enterprises operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan [Electronic resource] — Mode of access: https://lenta.ru/lib/14162689/full/ - date of access: 28.10.2019.
  7. Dexter Filkins. Threats by Taliban May Sway Vote in Afghanistan [Electronic resource]. — The New York Times, 17.08.2009. - Date of access: 28.10.2019.
  8. The Taliban Islamist enterprises operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan [Electronic resource] — Mode of access: https://lenta.ru/lib/14162689/full/ - date of access: 28.10.2019.
  9. John Wendle. Rabbani''s Killing Pushes Peace with the Taliban Further Out of Reach [Electronic resource]. — Time, 21.09.2011. - Date of access: 28.10.2019.
  10. Movement "Taliban". Dossier [Electronic resource]. – 29.07.2015. – Mode of access: https://tass.ru/info/2152632. – Date of access: 28.10.2019.
  11. Ganiev T. A., O. G. Cherneta, Tolmachev S. G. Special studies. The Islamic Republic Of Afghanistan. M.; WOO. 2019 C. 19-20.
  12. Bodansky, Joseph. The Taliban, international terrorism and the man who declared war on America / Josef Bodansky. – M.: Veche, 2002. –p.313.
  13. Jones, Seth John. The US war in Afghanistan. In the graveyard of empires / Seth J. Jones. – M.: Eksmo, 2013. – P. 345.
  14. Afghanistan between Iran and Saudi Arabia / Afghanistan.ru [Electronic resource]. – 2016. – Date of access: 09.07.2019.
  15. Media: Iran and the Taliban cooperating in the fight against ISIS // access date 17.07.2019 G. access Mode: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/3317467
  16. Iran could use the Taliban to counter US // date of access 17.07.2019 G. access Mode: http://www.ng.ru/world/2018-07-04/6_7258_iran.html.
  17. Media: a Taliban delegation arrived in Iran for peace talks // access date 17.07.2019 G. access Mode: https://ria.ru/20181231/1548950852.html
  18. The NATO chief supported the negotiations between the US and Taliban [Electronic resource]. – 25.10.2018. – Mode of access: http://afghanistan.ru/doc/124320.html. – Date of access: 28.10.2019.
  19. NATO urges Taliban to peace talks [Electronic resource]. – 05.12.2018. – Mode of access: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/5874941. – Date of access: 28.10.2019.

Oksenyuk M. M.


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение