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Experts after six months of fighting in Ukraine: it is unlikely that this will end soon
Material posted: Publication date: 14-10-2014

The armed conflict in South-Eastern Ukraine, which began six months ago, yet promises to end soon: and so although active hostilities are not expected, the sluggish clashes can last for years, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.

Earlier, Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk national Republic Alexander Zakharchenko announced the introduction in the Donbass "silence mode", starting on Saturday. According to the leader of DND, after this regime will last for five days, will start the allotment of artillery and heavy equipment.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects in the coming days to achieve full ceasefire, and then start the creation of a buffer zone.

According to the office for the coordination of humanitarian Affairs of the UN on 8 October, with the outbreak of the military conflict has killed more than 3.6 thousand people, including 298 passengers downed July 17 Malaysian Boeing. Injured nearly 8.9 thousand people.

How it all began

Exactly six months ago, on April 13, 2014, after capturing the self-defense forces of administrative buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, Oleksandr Turchynov, at that time acting President of Ukraine, announced the beginning of the so-called anti-terrorist operation (ATO) with the involvement of the army. The new government demanded that the militias to lay down their arms and leave the occupied buildings.

Two days after the announcement of the ATO, Slavyansk (Donetsk region) took to the ring for more than two thousand military. They had a large number of armored vehicles, including heavy. Strength Ukrainian security forces significantly outnumbered the non-professional army self-defense forces.

Forced to defend themselves, the militia on April 29, seized the building of the city administration of Lugansk, on may 1, took control of the building of the regional Prosecutor's office in Donetsk. After 10 days in both regions held referendums on self-determination, proclaimed the Donetsk and Lugansk people's Republic signed the agreement on creation of the Union of "new Russia".

Morale versus superiority in weapons

The representative of the militia and a source in the defense Ministry of Ukraine told RIA Novosti that both sides of the conflict, the weapons inherited from Soviet times and outdated. However, unlike the insurgents, the security forces had heavy machinery and aircraft, which significantly increased their superiority in the beginning of the RAID.

However, six months later, up to 70% of their military equipment was destroyed in the fighting or taken by militias as trophies, said the Director of the Center for analysis of world arms trade (Russia) Igor Korotchenko.

"Colossal" losses of the Ukrainian President tried to compensate with supplies from Eastern Europe: according to the expert, it is about the supply of T-72 tanks from Poland.

"In these conditions, Poroshenko has made an active effort to get somewhere new technique. Since Ukrainian industry is actually to give nothing, the emphasis is on closed from the public supplies of Soviet weapons from Eastern Europe, where it is still present," — said the Agency interlocutor.

As to the militia, it in the past six months have purchased, first of all, significant combat experience, which to this day helps to resist the demoralized army of Ukraine, said Korotchenko.

"Militants today have a high morale, coordination and are composed of the commanders of soldiers who had acquired combat experience and have tasted victory. The Ukrainian army and the national guard demoralized", — the expert believes.

"The world wants all of Ukraine"

The fifth of September after talks tripartite liaison group (Russia — Ukraine — OSCE) in Minsk signed a Protocol on peaceful settlement of the conflict. As promised Petro Poroshenko, the agreement on cease-fire was supposed to be open-ended in nature. Moreover, the paper noted that the parties agreed to improve the humanitarian situation in the Donbas.

"The whole world wants peace, the world wants all of Ukraine, including millions of Donbas residents. <...> We must do everything possible and impossible to terminate bloodshed and put an end to the suffering of people", — said the President of Ukraine.

However, interviewees RIA Novosti experts do not believe that the truce will be fully observed. So, expert of Association of military political scientists Alexander Perendzhiev predicted that the ceasefire will not last and week.

"Most likely, a certain time, the agreement will be executed, maybe with some minor violations. But I think that the ceasefire will not last long, the fighting will resume again. I give no more than 5 days", — said the Agency interlocutor.

Indeed, on the first night after the start of the truce at the headquarters of the Donetsk militia RIA Novosti said that from different cities of the region there are reports of continued skirmishes.

However, the climax in General began to wane. Yes, daily reports of attacks, people die — but not by tens, as before. Both sides constantly accuse each other of violating the ceasefire, but not maintained at least large-scale hostilities.

Sluggish war

Even before the announcement of the armistice, the President of Academy of geopolitical problems Konstantin Sivkov in an interview with RIA Novosti expressed the view that the armed confrontation will end during the year with the victory of Novorossiya.

According to the expert, all the matter in the absence of effective operational leadership in the army of Ukraine: "the Operation is run by Amateurs and mercenaries. The army is not focused on the conduct of hostilities".

The sole cause of the cooling of the conflict between the parties, the expert now sees the realization that further fighting will be associated with huge losses, and both sides for half a year was so many.

In General, according to the interlocutor of Agency, all outward signs indicate that the conflict will take the form of a languid war, the outcome of which, however, will be determined in a short time.

"Maximum within a year from the beginning of the conflict to gain the victory of Novorossiya", — he predicts.

New tensions

Meanwhile, the former head of the international Treaty Directorate of the defense Ministry of the Russian Federation Evgeny Buzhinsky believes that, undermining forces, the Ukrainian army under any pretext again to start large-scale fighting.

"I think that will be again accused militias in various disorders and again will begin large-scale combat operations. And the West will support them in this and will only applaud," he said.

Agree with him Director General of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Sergey Grinyaev: according to him, due to the fact that during the summer 2014 campaign none of the parties have not reached your goals, it is premature to talk about a peaceful solution to the problem.

"In the coming months the operation will take a hidden, latent, but from spring 2015 we should expect the escalation of tensions," — said the Agency interlocutor.

Grinyaev decided not to name the terms that can end the conflict, but noted that to restore the destroyed infrastructure will have at least a decade.

"The peculiarity of the current confrontation lies in the fact that weapons were used of a large-caliber multiple rocket launcher systems fire. As a result of destroyed infrastructure economically developed regions. It will be very difficult to find investors for the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure, as the hidden conflicts will hinder the normalization of the investment climate", — says the expert.

The Ukrainian Gas sector?

The head of the military forecasting Center, associate Professor, faculty of world politics of Moscow state University Anatoly Tsyganok believes that by signing the Minsk agreement, the parties understood that the peace process will not last long.

"Otherwise why Poroshenko is constantly asking armament of NATO", — asks the expert.

The assistant Secretary of defense for international security Derek Solli said earlier that the authorities are working on the program, which may include the supply of arms to the Ukrainian government.

Tsyganok believes that an armed confrontation will be suspended for the winter.

"I admit that the conflict will be interrupted due to dirt on the Ukrainian roads, which will not pass any tank. However, in the spring, when the dirt will come down, the fighting resumed with renewed vigor," says the Professor.

The expert believes that "Ukraine will never let Novorossiya". Moreover, he is sure, both parties will vent anger on each other over the deaths of relatives.

"South-East will become for Ukraine the same pain as the Gaza Strip for Israel, and a pain that will be felt for a long time — five or seven years," predicts the source.


Tags: Russia , war , Ukraina

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