Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
The Europeans will understand, forgive and support
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 11-05-2018
The President of the United States Donald trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement with Iran on the nuclear deal. But the EU and Russia not going to withdraw from this transaction and fully trust Iran.

This situation further exacerbated the situation in the superheated region of the Middle East. In celebration of this news, Israel hastened to attack Iranian facilities in Syria, and this time there was no response of the Iranian side, whose proxy forces attacked Israeli positions on the Golan heights.

About the US withdrawal from the AGREEMENT, and the collision of Israel and Iran, said in an interview to "Mirror" the Middle East expert, iranologist, Igor Pankratenko.

— How do you assess the U.S. withdrawal from SVPD? Can we say that this step to the beginning of the war?

Naturally the news of trump's decision sparked concern not only me, but all over the world. Frankly, until recently, there were doubts that the American President will choose this, the most rigid possible option, but it all happened exactly according to Murphy's law — "of all the troubles will happen exactly, the damage from which is more."

In the end, we all ended up in the new reality, or back to the old one that was before 2015, before the signing of the AGREEMENT, there could be as someone more comfortable to watch. In this reality, Iran is a rogue state, part of the axis of evil, the target of crippling sanctions. But that's not all. Trump's decision means that Iran will "displace" the Middle East — from Syria, from Lebanon, from Iraq, from Afghanistan. That, of course, the security that long-suffering region will not add.

Well, among other things, the pitch of the trump means that foreign businesses and investors, already "advanced" in Iran or preparing to enter the Iranian market should be drastically revised their plans in the direction of reduction.

As for the second part of your question, it all depends on what we mean by the word "war". If we are talking about direct armed confrontation between the United States and its allies with Iran, no such scenario the world is not threatened. If by this we understand the complex economy crippling sanctions information-psychological sabotage, subversive and intelligence operations, as well as the actions of some "proxy" — that this war has been going on for nearly four decades, sometimes fading, and then, as in the present case, sharpening.

— Can we expect clashes between Iran and Israel or the United States and Iran?

— Direct confrontation, such a classic armed conflict in the short term, again, not expected. And — for a number of reasons.

But the fact that the US, Israel and the Saudis are now "flush" will "eliminate the Iranian presence" in the first place – in Syria, then in Lebanon and Iraq — while not really low on money — obviously.

The problem for Tehran is that for a response to the upcoming attack he does not have enough forces and means. As serious allies are able to exert in these actions, military, political, diplomatic, financial and economic support from Iran today is not. Neither Beijing nor Moscow nor Ankara or someone else to Tehran for a serious worsening of relations with Washington. And with the European Union, too, because the criticism, which sounds in European capitals against the decisions of the trump are rather temporary, in the end the Europeans the American President "understand, forgive and support".

— How Iran has faithfully fulfilled the commitments undertaken in the framework of the signing of the AGREEMENT?

— Neither the IAEA had been following this issue for Iran with the utmost care, neither the rest of the country have shown interest in this issue, never (I stress never) had a reason to accuse Tehran of violating the clauses of the Agreement. Moreover, Emmanuel macron, and Angela Merkel in talks with trump emphasized conscientious adherence to the Iranian side AGREEMENT as an argument that the Treaty allows to ensure the peaceful nature of nuclear research of Iran.

Naturally, Israel and the Pro-Israel lobby in the United States — which, by the way, seriously is sponsoring the Republican party and generously donated to the campaign trump — another point of view. The only problem is that the real evidence of this point of view, they do not. Comedy with a "half ton secret archives of Iran" which was played by Bibi Netanyahu's inconsistencies, falsifications and outright political pop. The cost of those strange "copies" of folders and drives that he showed a respectable audience — a penny for a bundle in a market day. And the whole sob story "dizzying operations of the Mossad" — the lies about the involvement of Azerbaijan, the Israelis, in their usual manner, tried to cover Baku – is simply not tenable.

However, as it turned out, the anti-Iranian attitude trump any evidence of guilt or innocence, Tehran does not need. The result in any case would be only one breaking the Agreement and a new round of escalation of tension around Iran.


Source: http://zerkalo.az/evropejtsy-pojmut-prostyat-i-podderzhat/

Tags: Iran , Russia , USA


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение